How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146849/1/disa12293.pd

The oxidation of Type 310S stainless steel in mixed gases at elevated temperatures

Sheet specimens of Type 310S stainless steel were exposed to air as well as to lean'' and rich'' sulfidizing atmospheres at temperatures near 900{degrees}C to determine the relationships that exist between the scale structure, the rate of reaction, and the stresses generated during exposure. One goal of this experimental research program was to examine how these factors might be related to the breakdown of protective scales in sulfidizing atmospheres. It was found that the scales formed in air and the lean'' atmosphere are protective and non-spalling while those formed in the rich'' atmosphere spall, initially react at rates 1000 times greater than counterparts in less aggressive atmospheres, and later exhibit a breakaway''-type rapid reaction. Only those scales formed in air provide the cooperative, tractive interfacial forces required to produce uniform dilatation and deformation of the substrate. However, evidence exists for at least localized stresses in all of the scales examined

Molecular biological enhancement of coal biodesulfurization. [Rhodococcus]

The objective of this project is to produce one or more microorganisms capable of removing the organic and inorganic sulfur in coal. The original specific technical objectives of the project were to: Clone and characterize the genes encoding the enzymes of the 4S'' pathway (sulfoxide/sulfone/sulfonate/sulfate) for release of organic sulfur from coal; return multiple copies of genes to the original host to enhance the biodesulfurization activity of that organism; transfer this pathway into a fast-growing chemolithotropic bacterium; conduct a batch-mode optimization/analysis of scale-up variables

The royal road for genetic algorithms: Fitness landscapes and GA performance

Genetic algorithms (GAs) play a major role in many artificial-life systems, but there is often little detailed understanding of why the GA performs as it does, and little theoretical basis on which to characterize the types of fitness landscapes that lead to successful GA performance. In this paper we propose a strategy for addressing these issues. Our strategy consists of defining a set of features of fitness landscapes that are particularly relevant to the GA, and experimentally studying how various configurations of these features affect the GA's performance along a number of dimensions. In this paper we informally describe an initial set of proposed feature classes, describe in detail one such class ( Royal Road'' functions), and present some initial experimental results concerning the role of crossover and building blocks'' on landscapes constructed from features of this class. 27 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs

Potential effects of maternal contribution on egg and larva population dynamics of striped bass: Integrated individual-based model and directed field sampling

We have used a bioenergetically-driven, individual-based model (IBM) of striped bass as a framework for synthesizing available information on population biology and quantifying, in a relative sense, factors that potentially affect year class success. The IBM has been configured to simulate environmental conditions experienced by several striped bass populations; i.e., in the Potomac River, MD; in Hudson River, NY; in the Santee-Cooper River System, SC, and; in the San Joaquin-Sacramento River System CA. These sites represent extremes in the geographic distribution and thus, environmental variability of striped bass spawning. At each location, data describing the physio-chemical and biological characteristics of the spawning population and nursery area are being collected and synthesized by means of a prioritized, directed field sampling program that is organized by the individual-based recruitment model. Here, we employ the striped bass IBM configured for the Potomac River, MD from spawning into the larval period to evaluate the potential for maternal contribution to affect larva survival and growth. Model simulations in which the size distribution and spawning day of females are altered indicate that larva survival is enhanced (3.3-fold increase) when a high fraction of females in the spawning population are large. Larva stage duration also is less ({bar X} = 18.4 d and 22.2 d) when large and small females, respectively, are mothers in simulations. Although inconclusive, these preliminary results for Potomac River striped bass suggest that the effects of female size, timing of spawning nad maternal contribution on recruitment dynamics potentially are important and illustrate our approach to the study of recruitment in striped bass. We hope to use the model, field collections and management alternatives that vary from site to site, in an iterative manner for some time to come. 54 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Measurements of beat wave accelerated electrons in a toroidal plasma

Electrons are accelerated by large amplitude electron plasma waves driven by counter-propagating microwaves with a difference frequency approximately equal to the electron plasma frequency. Energetic electrons are observed only when the phase velocity of the wave is in the range 3v{sub e} < v{sub ph} < 7v{sub e} (v{sub ph} was varied 2v{sub e} < v{sub ph} < 10v{sub e}), where v{sub e} is the electron thermal velocity, (kT{sub e}/m{sub e}){sup {1/2}}. As the phase velocity increases, fewer electrons are accelerated to higher velocities. The measured current contained in these accelerated electrons has the power dependence predicted by theory, but the magnitude is lower than predicted

Occupational breaks, their incidence and implications for training provision: case-study evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth

Detailed education, employment and training histories have been constructed for a cohort of 440 male respondents from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The employment histories show that most respondents without college degrees have experienced at least one occupational break since entering the labour force. The training histories show that most of those in employment in 1992 have had no formal training for their current occupations. An assessment of whether those who received training before or on entering the labour force have subsequently had more stable employment histories than those who have not shows that this is true of college-level vocational education but not of high school vocational education or training received in vocational/technical institutes. These findings suggest that the comprehensive provision of entry-level training for those not college-bound, as advocated by those promoting vocational education in high schools, cannot be justified in terms of labour market outcomes

Measurement of beauty production in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

The beauty production cross section for deep inelastic scattering events with at least one hard jet in the Breit frame together with a muon has been measured, for photon virtualities Q&quot;2 &gt; 2 GeV&quot;2, with the ZEUS detector at HERA using integrated luminosity of 72pb&quot;-&quot;1. The total visible cross section is #sigma#_b_b(ep #-&gt;# e jet #mu# X) = 40.9 #+-# 5.7 (stat.)_-_4_._4&quot;+&quot;6&quot;.&quot;0(syst.) pb. The next-to-leading order QCD prediction lies about 2.5 standard deviations below the data. The differential cross sections are in general consistent with the NLO QCD predictions; however at low values of Q&quot;2, Bjorken x, and muon transverse momentum, and high values of jet transverse energy and muon pseudorapidity, the prediction is about two standard deviations below the data. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RA 2999(04-070) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman