Sun Spots and Expectations: W. S. Jevons and the Theory of Economic Fluctuations

W. Stanley Jevon’s statistical study of periodicity has received much scrutiny (Aldrich1987), but less attention has been given to his theoretical position on economic fluctuations, a circumstance which T.W. Hutchison justly finds surprising considering that “Jevons maintained that aggregate instability, and the distress it caused, presented profoundly serious problems, and devoted some of his most strenuous economic research to their explanation” (Hutchison 1988, p. 6). This paper takes up the challenge to examine the development of Jevon’s though on economic fluctuations from the early 1860s until his death in 1882. I shall distinguish in what follows between Jevon’s “theory of economic fluctuations,” i.e. his explanation for how sunspots cause fluctuations, and his study of periodicity which attempted to prove that periodic solar variation constituted the mechanism causing periodic economic fluctuations.1 My main concern shall be to highlight the less appreciated explanation for how sunspots are said to cause periodic economic fluctuations. In that regard, by 1875, expectations figured prominently in Jevon’s account: Harvest-generated fluctuations altered prices and then commercial “moods.” Consequently, investors altered investment decisions, thereby multiplying the direct effect of the harvest cycle

Jepson School of Leadership Studies Dean\u27s Report 2021 - 2022

University of Richmond\u27s Jepson School of Leadership Studies Dean\u27s Report for 2021 - 2022

Introduction to Symposium: The Fate of Anglo-American Capitalism

The call for papers in this special issue asked whether there is a future for the robust sort of capitalism favoured by Adam Smith or whether we have reached a limit to Anglo-American capitalism as the engine of human betterment. Contemporary events loomed large late in 2008 and it seemed appropriate to consider whether Anglo-American capitalism was passing away. We were particularly interested in contributions that viewed current economic events through a lens informed by Smith\u27s teaching on institutions, money and economic growth

Theory, Application and the canon: The case of Mill and Jevons

Whatever disputes remain about the nature and content of the canon of economics, it is widely accepted that the boundary of economic science was narrowed throughout the nineteenth century (Winch 1972). This chapter offers a partial explanation for that narrowing in the methodological developments that occurred during the second half of the century. For reasons of practicality in the face of pronounced multiplicity of cause, John Stuart Mill called, In his 1836 Essay On the Definition of Political Economy; and on the Method of Investigation Proper to It, and again in his 1843 Logic, for a separate and specialized science of political economy. The problem of multiple cause implied that the science should be substantially deductive in nature. Yet Mill accorded a role to induction, in the establishment of the basic causal framework, and to the process of verifying the accuracy of the theoretical analysis. Revision of the theory in the light of such verification established a key link between theory, and application

Hayek on Mill:The Mill-Taylor Friendship and Related Writings

Best known for reviving the tradition of classical liberalism, F. A. Hayek was also a prominent scholar of the philosopher John Stuart Mill. One of his greatest undertakings was a collection of Mill’s extensive correspondence with his longstanding friend and later companion and wife, Harriet Taylor-Mill. Hayek first published the Mill-Taylor correspondence in 1951, and his edition soon became required reading for any study of the nineteenth-century foundations of liberalism. This latest addition to the University of Chicago Press’s Collected Works of F. A. Hayek series showcases the fascinating intersections between two of the most prominent thinkers from two successive centuries. Hayek situates Mill within the complex social and intellectual milieu of nineteenth-century Europe—as well as within twentieth-century debates on socialism and planning—and uncovers the influence of Taylor-Mill on Mill’s political economy. The volume features the Mill-Taylor correspondence and brings together for the first time Hayek’s related writings, which were widely credited with beginning a new era of Mill scholarship.https://scholarship.richmond.edu/bookshelf/1158/thumbnail.jp

Jepson School of Leadership Studies Dean\u27s Report 2020 - 2021

University of Richmond\u27s Jepson School of Leadership Studies Dean\u27s Report for 2020 - 2021

Jevons\u27s Applications of Utilitarian Theory to Economic Policy

The precise nature of W. S. Jevons\u27s utilitarianism as a guiding rule for economic policy has yet to be investigated, and that will be the first issue treated in this paper. While J. A. Schumpeter, for instance, asserted that \u27some of the most prominent exponents of marginal utility\u27 (including Jevons), were \u27convinced utilitarians\u27, he did not investigate the further implications for Jevons\u27s policy analysis.

On the Bitter Quarrel Between Economics and Its Enemies

Economics has long had its enemies. The question is, why? What, precisely, is it about economics that its critics oppose? William Coleman seeks to tell the story of «anti-economics», «to take its measure» (p. 3), and then finally to defend economics from these attacks. His is a broad, sweeping study that uses a wide lens, panoramically over time, to survey the opposition. The crisis in economics, edited by Edward Fullbrook, provides us instead with a detailed snapshot of a recent sort of anti-economics - the Post-Autistic Economics (PAE) movement that originated among French economics students in 2000. Both serve to remind economists that ours is a peculiarly situated discipline, one which seems to draw criticism and which might be well-served by «taking measure of», as Coleman puts it, serious criticism. The profession is largely ignorant of its intellectual enemies; that unwillingness to engage in discussion with its critics, has in part caused the frustration that underscores the PAE movement

INTERROGATING DUX4 MRNA 3′ END PROCESSING

Double Homeobox 4, Dux4, is the leading candidate gene for Facioscapulohumeral Dystrophy (FSHD). FSHD is the third most common muscular dystrophy, and is characterized by progressive muscle weakness primarily in the upper body. In individuals diagnosed with FSHD, Dux4 is inappropriately expressed in somatic cells due to two conditions. The first is hypomethylation of the subtelomeric D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4. Each D4Z4 repeat on chromosome 4 is 3.3kb in length and contains the open reading frame for Dux4. Hypomethylation of the D4Z4 repeats primarily occurs due to contraction of the repeats from 11-100 (typical numbers in the healthy population) to between 1 and 10 repeats. Concomitant with the hypomethylation of the D4Z4 repeats on chromosome 4 is a single nucleotide polymorphism in the flanking DNA that generates a non-consensus polyadenylation signal (PAS). This PAS allows for the productive transcription of a polyadenylated Dux4 mRNA from the terminal D4Z4 repeat. Dux4 is anemically expressed in patient somatic cells, but contributes to FSHD pathology due to Dux4-dependent cellular reprogramming. We aim to understand what regulatory elements facilitate the cleavage and polyadenylation (CPA) of the Dux4 mRNA beyond the non-consensus PAS and to determine if inefficient CPA underlies the poor expression of Dux4 in patient cells. We designed a transcriptional read-through reporter to assay cleavage and polyadenylation in cells and confirm that additional cis elements are required for CPA of Dux4 besides the non-consensus PAS. This element is located outside the region where cis regulatory elements for CPA are usually present. Moreover, the element which lies downstream of the PAS, is within a degenerate repeat region, called β-satellite DNA. Using the knowledge gained from characterizing Dux4 mRNA 3′end formation, we designed antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) to impair the production of polyadenylated Dux4. Prior to antagonizing Dux4 CPA, we demonstrate, in proof of principle experiments that ASOs directed toward required CPA regulatory elements can impair gene expression, and may redirect polyadenylation. Finally, the work presented here lays the foundation for us to impair Dux4 CPA in reporter driven assays and patient cells; and to exploit currently available deep sequencing technology to determine the specificity of PAS-directed ASOs