The Globalization of Trade and Democracy, 1870-2000

We study whether international trade fosters democracy. The likely endogeneity between democracy and trade is addressed via the gravity model of trade, allowing us to obtain a measure of natural openness. This serves as our instrumental variable for actual trade openness à la Frankel and Romer (1999). We use this powerful instrument to obtain estimates of the causal impact of openness on democratization. A positive impact of openness on democracy is apparent from about 1895 onwards. Late nineteenth century trade globalization may have helped generate the "first wave" of democratization. Between 1920 and 1938 countries more exposed to international trade were less likely to become authoritarian. Finally, our post-World War II results suggest that a one standard deviation increase in trade with other countries could bring countries like Indonesia, Russia or Venezuela to be as democratic as the US, Great Britain or France. We also see some variation in the impact of openness by region and note that commodity exporters and petroleum producers do not seem to become more democratic by exporting more of such items.

Probing the Pulsar Wind Nebula of PSR B0355+54

We present XMM-Newton and Chandra X-ray observations of the middle-aged radio pulsar PSR B0355+54. Our X-ray observations reveal emission not only from the pulsar itself, but also from a compact diffuse component extending ~50'' in the opposite direction to the pulsar's proper motion. There is also evidence for the presence of fainter diffuse emission extending ~5' from the point source. The compact diffuse feature is well-fitted with a power-law, the index of which is consistent with the values found for other pulsar wind nebulae. The morphology of the diffuse component is similar to the ram-pressure confined pulsar wind nebulae detected for other sources. The X-ray emission from the pulsar itself is described well by a thermal plus power-law fit, with the thermal emission most likely originating in a hot polar cap.Comment: 9 pages (uses emulateapj.cls), 8 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Low State, Phase-Resolved IR Spectroscopy of VV Puppis

We present phase-resolved low resolution $JHK$ and higher resolution $K$-band spectroscopy of the polar VV Pup. All observations were obtained when VV Pup was in a low accretion state having a K magnitude near 15. The low resolution observations reveal cyclotron emission in the $J$ band during some phases, consistent with an origin near the active 30.5 MG pole on the white dwarf. The secondary in VV Pup appears to be a normal M7V star and we find that the $H$ and $K$ band fluxes are entirely due to this star at all orbital phases during the low accretion state. We use our higher resolution Keck spectroscopy to produce the first $K$-band radial velocity curve for VV Pup. Our orbital solution yields $K_2$=414$\pm27$ km sec$^{-1}$ and leads to mass estimates of M$_1$=0.73$\pm$0.05 M$_{\odot}$ and M$_2$=0.10$\pm$0.02 M$_{\odot}$. We find that the mass accretion rates during the normal low states of the polars VV Pup, EF Eri, and EQ Cet are near 10$^{-13}$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. The fact that \.M is not zero in low state polars indicates active secondary stars in these binary systems, including the sub-stellar donor star present in EF Eri.Comment: Accepted in Astronomical Journal 5 figure

The X-ray Spectra of VY Scl Stars Are Not Blackbodies

Using ASCA data, we find, contrary to other researchers using ROSAT data, that the X-ray spectra of the VY Scl stars TT Ari and KR Aur are poorly fit by an absorbed blackbody model but are well fit by an absorbed thermal plasma model. The different conclusions about the nature of the X-ray spectrum of KR Aur may be due to differences in the accretion rate, since this star was in a high optical state during the ROSAT observation, but in an intermediate optical state during the ASCA observation. TT Ari, on the other hand, was in a high optical state during both observations, so directly contradicts the hypothesis that the X-ray spectra of VY Scl stars in their high optical states are blackbodies. Instead, based on theoretical expectations and the ASCA, Chandra, and XMM spectra of other nonmagnetic cataclysmic variables, we believe that the X-ray spectra of VY Scl stars in their low and high optical states are due to hot thermal plasma in the boundary layer between the accretion disk and the surface of the white dwarf, and appeal to the acquisition of Chandra and XMM grating spectra to test this prediction.Comment: 9 pages including 1 table and 1 encapsulated postscript figure; LaTeX format, uses aastex.cls; accepted on 2002 January 4 for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letter

ENSO effects on primary productivity in Southern Atacama desert

International audienceIn the winter-rain southern Atacama Desert of the Coquimbo Region of Chile, El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate primary productivity. In this region, there are important changes in water availability between La Niña (dry) and El Niño (rainy) years. Using inter-annual comparisons of LANDSAT images from 30° to 31° S latitude, we observed changes in primary productivity between dry and rainy years at the regional level. There were also significant, negative correlations between productivity and elevation, with changes occurring first at low elevation during rainy years. The limiting factors to dryland vegetation primary productivity is different in regard to elevation. Rain during an El Niño year is the main factor that explains the increase in primary productivity at low elevation, while lower temperatures reduce and delay the net primary productivity at mid elevation

Patterns of Fetal Heart Rate Response at ∼30 Weeks Gestation Predict Size at Birth

There is evidence that fetal exposure to maternal stress is associated with adverse birth outcomes. Less is known about the association between fetal responses to a stressor and indicators of fetal maturity and developmental outcomes. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether fetal heart rate (FHR) patterns in response to a startling stimulus at ∼30 weeks of gestation were associated with gestational age at birth and birth weight. FHR was measured in 156 maternal–fetal dyads following a vibroacoustic stimulus. All pregnancies were singleton intrauterine pregnancies in English-speaking women who were primarily married, middle class, White and at least 18 years of age. Group-based trajectory modeling identified five groups of fetuses displaying distinctive longitudinal trajectories of FHR response to the startling stimulus. The FHR group trajectories were significantly associated with birth weight percentile (P \u3c 0.01) even after controlling for estimated fetal weight at the time of assessment and parity, which are the known factors influencing birth weight (P \u3c 0.01). Post hoc analyses indicated that two groups accounted for the association between FHR patterns and birth weight. The group (n = 23) with the lowest birth weight exhibited an immediate FHR deceleration followed by an immediate acceleration that does not recover. An FHR pattern characterized by immediate and fast acceleration to the peak and a slow discovery to baseline was associated with the highest birth weight. This is the first direct evidence showing that low birth weight and the resulting neurological consequences may have their origins in early fetal development

Detection of Pulsed X-ray Emission from XMM-Newton Observations of PSR J0538+2817

We report on the XMM-Newton observations of the 143 ms pulsar PSR J0538+2817. We present evidence for the first detections of pulsed X-rays from the source at a frequency which is consistent with the predicted radio frequency. The pulse profile is broad and asymmetric, with a pulse fraction of 18 +/- 3%. We find that the spectrum of the source is well-fit with a blackbody with T^{infty} = (2.12^{+0.04}_{-0.03}) x 10^6 K and N_{H} = 2.5 x 10^21 cm^{-2}. The radius determined from the model fit of 1.68 +/- 0.05 km suggests that the emission is from a heated polar cap. A fit to the spectrum with an atmospheric model reduces the inferred temperature and hence increases the radius of the emitting region, however the pulsar distance determined from the fit is then smaller than the dispersion distance.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ. Error in radius calculation corrected, discussion and conclusions remain unchange

An EUV Study of the Intermediate Polar EX Hydrae

On 2000 May 5, we began a large multi-wavelength campaign to study the intermediate polar, EX Hydrae. The simultaneous observations from six satellites and four telescopes were centered around a one million second observation with EUVE. Although EX Hydrae has been studied previously with EUVE, our higher signal-to-noise observations present new results and challenge the current IP models. Previously unseen dips in the light curve are reminiscent of the stream dips seen in polar light curves. Also of interest is the temporal extent of the bulge dip; approximately 0.5 in phase, implying that the bulge extends over half of the accretion disk. We propose that the magnetic field in EX Hydrae is strong enough (a few MG) to begin pulling material directly from the outer edge of the disk, thereby forming a large accretion curtain which would produce a very broad bulge dip. This would also result in magnetically controlled accretion streams originating from the outer edge of the disk. We also present a period analysis of the photometric data which shows numerous beat frequencies with strong power and also intermittent and wandering frequencies, an indication that physical conditions within EX Hya changed over the course of the observation. Iron spectral line ratios give a temperature of log T=6.5-6.9 K for all spin phases and a poorly constrained density of n_e=10^10-10^11 cm^-3 for the emitting plasma. This paper is the first in a series detailing our results from this multi-wavelength observational campaign.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Ap