A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior

Based on a survey of behavioral finance literature, this paper presents a descriptive model of individual investor behavior in which investment decisions are seen as an iterative process of interactions between the investor and the investment environment. This investment process is influenced by a number of interdependent variables and driven by dual mental systems, the interplay of which contributes to boundedly rational behavior where investors use various heuristics and may exhibit behavioral biases. In the modeling tradition of cognitive science and intelligent systems, the investor is seen as a learning, adapting, and evolving entity that perceives the environment, processes information, acts upon it, and updates his or her internal states. This conceptual model can be used to build stylized representations of (classes of) individual investors, and further studied using the paradigm of agent-based artificial financial markets. By allowing us to implement individual investor behavior, to choose various market mechanisms, and to analyze the obtained asset prices, agent-based models can bridge the gap between the micro level of individual investor behavior and the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recognized, yet not fully explored, that these models could be used as a tool to generate or test various behavioral hypothesis.behavioral finance;financial decision making;agent-based artificial financial markets;cognitive modeling;investor behavior

Relationship Debt and Guarantees: Best Practice v Real Practice

Guarantee transactions have generated an enormous volume of litigation over the past 20 years in Australia and elsewhere. There have been numerous major reports referring to the problem of relationship debt in recent years as concern about guarantee transactions has grown. This article outlines the major findings of the first comprehensive Australian empirical research into the law and practices governing third party guarantees. The research was directed to finding out more about the experiences of the people who agree to guarantee the loans of others. Why do they sign on, how do they get into trouble in those transactions and what might have assisted them in avoiding such difficulties? Despite measures such as the Consumer Credit Code (1996) and the Code of Banking Practice (1993)(2003) , guarantee practice shows little evidence of what either the finance industry or consumer advocates would regard as best, or even adequate, practice

Polymeric Micelles in Ocular Drug Delivery: Rationale, Strategies and Challenges

Polymeric micelles that can deliver drug to intended sites of the eye have attracted much scientific attention recently. The aim here is to review the aqueous-based formulation of drug loaded polymeric micelles that hold significant promise for ophthalmic drug delivery. These innovative nanosystems can provide the biopharmaceutical advantages of higher permeation and enhancement of residence time at ocular surface for better drug absorption through ocular barriers. Mucoadhesive properties of biopolymers forming micelle enhance their contact time and minimize their elimination from the absorbing surface, consequently increasing the bioavailability of the drug. Their physicochemical characteristics are also important with respect to the industrial production and patient compliance. Drug loaded polymeric micelles can be fabricated by simple and cost effective techniques with improved physical stability which fulfils the requirements for industrial acceptance. Innovative polymeric micelle formulations allow their easy application in the form of eye drops without blurring of vision and discomfort, thus achieving patient compliance requirements

Designing a road traffic model for the cross-sectoral analysis of future national infrastructure

This paper presents a UK national road traffic model developed as part of the ITRC MISTRAL - a large interdisciplinary project of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC). The proposed model includes passenger and freight vehicle flows on major UK roads and predicts future demand in the form of an inter-zonal origin-destination matrix, using and elasticity-based simulation approach. An important part of the model is the network assignment step during which predicted flows are assigned to the road network. This allows for the assessment of road capacity utilisation and facilitates the identification of "pinch points" where future infrastructure investments might be targeted. Several policy interventions are studied in the paper, including road expansion with additional lanes, new road development and vehicle electrification. The model also explicitly considers cross-sectoral interdependencies with other infrastructure networks, primarily with the energy sector where the transport sector is the largest consumer, the digital communications sector, water supply and waste management. In future extensions, the model will also be able to estimate the environmental footprint and assess the risk and resilience of the transport network. This model has the potential to inform policy makers about the long-term performance of UK road infrastructure, considering a range of possible future scenarios for population growth, technological innovation and climate change

Modeling investor optimism with fuzzy connectives

Optimism or pessimism of investors is one of the important characteristics that determine the investment behavior in financial markets. In this paper, we propose a model of investor optimism based on a fuzzy connective. The advantage of the proposed approach is that the influence of different levels of optimism can be studied by varying a single parameter. We implement our model in an artificial financial market based on the LLS model. We find that more optimistic investors create more pronounced booms and crashes in the market, when compared to the unbiased efficient market believers of the original model. In the case of extreme optimism, the optimistic investors end up dominating the market, while in the case of extreme pessimism, the market reduces to the benchmark model of rational informed investors

A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior

Based on a survey of behavioral finance literature, this paper presents a descriptive model of individual investor behavior in which investment decisions are seen as an iterative process of interactions between the investor and the investment environment. This investment process is influenced by a number of interdependent variables and driven by dual mental systems, the interplay of which contributes to boundedly rational behavior where investors use various heuristics and may exhibit behavioral biases. In the modeling tradition of cognitive science and intelligent systems, the investor is seen as a learning, adapting, and evolving entity that perceives the environment, processes information, acts upon it, and updates his or her internal states. This conceptual model can be used to build stylized representations of (classes of) individual investors, and further studied using the paradigm of agent-based artificial financial markets. By allowing us to implement individual investor behavior, to choose various market mechanisms, and to analyze the obtained asset prices, agent-based models can bridge the gap between the micro level of individual investor behavior and the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recognized, yet not fully explored, that these models could be used as a tool to generate or test various behavioral hypothesis

Farmers’ reasoning behind the uptake of agroforestry practices: evidence from multiple case-studies across Europe

Potential benefits and costs of agroforestry practices have been analysed by experts, but few studies have captured farmers’ perspectives on why agroforestry might be adopted on a European scale. This study provides answers to this question, through an analysis of 183 farmer interviews in 14 case study systems in eight European countries. The study systems included high natural and cultural value agroforestry systems, silvoarable systems, high value tree systems, and silvopasture systems, as well as systems where no agroforestry practices were occurring. A mixed method approach combining quantitative and qualitative approaches was taken throughout the interviews. Narrative thematic data analysis was performed. Data collection proceeded until no new themes emerged. Within a given case study, i.e. the different systems in different European regions, this sampling was performed both for farmers who practice agroforestry and farmers who did not. Results point to a great diversity of agroforestry practices, although many of the farmers are not aware of the term or concept of agroforestry, despite implementing the practice in their own farms. While only a few farmers mentioned eligibility for direct payments in the CAP as the main reason to remove trees from their land, to avoid the reduction of the funded area, the tradition in the family or the region, learning from others, and increasing the diversification of products play the most important role in adopting or not agroforestry systems

The implications of ambitious decarbonisation of heat and road transport for Britain’s net zero carbon energy systems

Decarbonisation of heating and road transport are regarded as necessary but very challenging steps on the pathway to net zero carbon emissions. Assessing the most efficient routes to decarbonise these sectors requires an integrated view of energy and road transport systems. Here we describe how a national gas and electricity transmission network model was extended to represent multiple local energy systems and coupled with a national energy demand and road transport model. The integrated models were applied to assess a range of technologies and policies for heating and transport where the UK’s 2050 net zero carbon emissions target is met. Overall, annual primary energy use is projected to reduce by between 25% and 50% by 2050 compared to 2015, due to ambitious efficiency improvements within homes and vehicles. However, both annual and peak electricity demands in 2050 are more than double compared with 2015. Managed electric vehicle charging could save 14TWh/year in gas-fired power generation at peak times, and associated emissions, whilst vehicle-to-grid services could provide 10GW of electricity supply during peak hours. Together, managed vehicle charging, and vehicle-to-grid supplies could result in a 16% reduction in total annual energy costs. The provision of fast public charging facilities could reduce peak electricity demand by 17GW and save an estimated £650 million annually. Although using hydrogen for heating and transport spreads the hydrogen network costs between homeowners and motorists, it is still estimated to be more costly overall compared to an all-electric scenario. Bio-energy electricity generation plants with carbon capture and storage are required to drive overall energy system emissions to net zero, utilisation of which is lowest when heating is electrified, and road transport consists of a mix of electric and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The analysis demonstrates the need for an integrated systems approach to energy and transport policies and for coordination between national and local governments

Semiconductor quantum dots as fluorescent probes for in vitro and in vivo bio-molecular and cellular imaging

Over the years, biological imaging has seen many advances, allowing scientists to unfold many of the mysteries surrounding biological processes. The ideal imaging resolution would be in nanometres, as most biological processes occur at this scale. Nanotechnology has made this possible with functionalised nanoparticles that can bind to specific targets and trace processes at the cellular and molecular level. Quantum dots (QDs) or semiconductor nanocrystals are luminescent particles that have the potential to be the next generation fluorophores. This paper is an overview of the basics of QDs and their role as fluorescent probes for various biological imaging applications. Their potential clinical applications and the limitations that need to be overcome have also been discussed