Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

In this paper we propose tests for hypotheses regarding the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and the tests still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests we analyze are standard heteroskedasticity autocorrelation (HAC) robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the ï¾…xed-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002). This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with regards to bandwidth and kernel choices. Our analysis shows that among popular kernels, there are speciï¾…c kernel and bandwidth choices that deliver tests with maximal power within a speciï¾…c class of tests. Based on the theoretical results, we propose a data dependent bandwidth rule that maximizes integrated power. Our recommended test is shown to have power that dominates a related test proposed by Vogelsang (1998). We apply the recommended test to the logarithm of a net barter terms of trade series and we ï¾…nd that this series has a statistically signiï¾…cant negative slope. This ï¾…nding is consistent with the well known Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

Goffman, Simmel, and Chicago

In summary, it seems that EG’s Frame Analysis deserves much more attention from our discipline as does the theoretical work of Georg Simmel

China: Promise or Threat?

In China: Promise or Threat? Helle compares the cultures of China and the West through both private and public spheres. For China, the private sphere of family life is well developed while behaviour in public relating to matters of government and the law is less reliable. In contrast, the West operates in reverse. The book’s twelve chapters investigate the causes and effects of threats to the environment, military confrontations, religious differences, fundamentals of cultural history, and the countries’ orientations for finding solutions to societal problems, all informed by the Confucian impulse to recapture the lost splendour of a past versus faith in progress toward a blessed future. The West has promoted individualism while China is locked in its kinship society

Scaling Laws of Stress and Strain in Brittle Fracture

A numerical realization of an elastic beam lattice is used to obtain scaling exponents relevant to the extent of damage within the controlled, catastrophic and total regimes of mode-I brittle fracture. The relative fraction of damage at the onset of catastrophic rupture approaches a fixed value in the continuum limit. This enables disorder in a real material to be quantified through its relationship with random samples generated on the computer.Comment: 4 pages and 6 figure

Sized-related changes in winter condition of male calves in reindeer

Size-related changes in body condition of free-ranging male calves of semi-domesticated reindeer were studied in northern Finland from October 1983 to February 1984. In October-November, back fat depth or muscle fat percent correlated positively with the body size (=back length). In January, the highest means especially for muscle fat percent were found among medium-sized calves. Carcass weight and weight/back length ratio correlated positively with size, excluding February sample, where correlation for carcass weight was non-significant and for weight/back length ratio negative. Weight in the autumn correlated negatively with weight in February. Therefore, normalizing selection for body size (working against small and large phenotypes) is expected to occur in late winter. Small calves may be at greater mortality risk because of lower initial body reserves. Large calves commonly disperse during the rutting season and they may suffer most from increased food competition later in winter. Using of medium-sized calves for breeding might be the safest policy on ranges characterized by short food supply and difficult snow conditions.Koon vaikutus poron urosvasojen talviseen kuntoon.Abstract in Finnish / Tiivistelmä: Koon vaikutusta vapaana laiduntavien poron urosvasojen kuntoon tutkittiin Pohjois-Suomessa loka-helmikuussa talvella 1983-84. Loka-marraskuussa selkärasvan paksuus tai lihaksen rasvaprosentti riippui vasan koosta ( = selän pituus). Tammikuussa sen sijaan lihaksen rasvaprosentti oli korkein keskikokoisilla vasoilla. Ruhopaino sekä ruhopaino/selän pituus oli yleensa riippuvainen koosta. Helmikuussa ruhopainon riippuvuus koosta ei ollut enää tilastollisesti merkitsevä, ja koon ja ruhopainon/selänpituuden välinen korrelaatio oli negatiivinen. Eniten painoa menettivät (%) loka-helmikuun välillä suurikokoisimmat vasat. Havainnot viittaavat siihen, että talvella esiintyvä kuolleisuus on normalisoivaa koon suhteen (karsii pieniä ja suuria fenotyyppejä). Pienten vasojen kuolleisuusriski on suuri alunperinkin vähäisen varastoravinnon vuoksi. Suuret vasat puolestaan erkaantuvat usein emistään jo rykimäaikana, ja joutuvat kärsimään eniten talven mittaan kiristyvästä ravintokilpailusta. Niukoilla laitumilla siitokseen on turvallisinta säästää keskikokoisia vasoja.Sammenhengen mellom størrelse og vinterkondisjon hos hankalver av reinsdyr.Abstract in Norwegian / Sammendrag: Størrelses-relaterte forandringer i kroppskondisjon hos fritt beitende han-kalver av semidomestiserte rein er studert i Nord-Finland fra oktober 1983 til februar 1984. I oktober - november korrelerte tykkelsen av ryggfettet eller muskelfett-prosenten positivt med kroppsstørrelsen (= rygglengden). I januar ble de høyeste middelverdier, særlig for muskelfett-prosenten, funnet hos kalver av middels størrelse. Skrott-vekter og vekt/rygglengde-forholdet korrelerte positivt med kroppsstørrelse bortsett fra februar-prøvene, der korrellasjonen for skrott-vekt var ikke-signifikant og for vekt/rygglengde-forholdet var negativt. Vekt om høsten korrelerte negativt med vekt i februar. Derfor ventes et normaliserende utvalg for kroppsvekt (som arbeider mot små og store fenotyper) å skje på senvinteren. Små kalver er utsatt for større dødsrisiko på grunn av lavere kroppsreserver. Store kalver streifer vanligvis under brunsttiden og kan komme til å lide under økt næringskonkurranse på senvinteren. Bruk av middels store kalver i avlen kan være den sikreste metode på beiter som karakteriseres av dårlige næringstilgang og vanskelige snøforhold

The growth rate of Cladonia rangiferina and C. mitis in relation to forest characteristics in northeastern Finland

The growth rate of Cladonia rangiferina and C. mitis was studied in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland, where they share more than 90 percent of the total lichen biomass. The material was collected from 5 pine forests of different ages in Calluna-Cladina heaths. The length growth rate of C. rangiferina varied by site from 3.9 to 4.3 mmyr -' and that of C. mitis from 3.0 to 3.5 mmyr-1 C. rangiferina achieved the fastest growth in a younger (60 years) shadowy forest; growth was slowest in a clear-felled area and in an old (180 years), already thinned forest. C. mitis grew fastest in a site with young (10 years old) pine plants and slowest in a younger shadowy site. The results do not support suggestions that clear-felling itself might negatively influence the growth of lichens. However, it is important also from the point of view of range management to create a new forest as soon as possible, since both species studied here grew faster in young forests than in clear-felled areas.Harmaaporonjakalan ja mietoporonjakalan kasvunopeus eri-ikaisissa metsissa.Abstract in Finnish / Yhteenveto: Harmaaporonjakalan (Cladonia rangiferina) ja mietoporonjakalan (Cladonia mitis) kasvunopeutta tutkittiin Kuusamossa. Aineisto kerattiin 5 puustoltaan eri-ikaiselti jakalakankaalta. Harmaaporonjakala kasvoi pituutta keskimaarin 3.9 - 4.3 mm/v ja mietoporonjakala 3.0 - 3.5 mm/v kasvupaikasta riippuen. Harmaaporonjakalan kasvu oli nopeinta nuorehkossa (60 v) tiheassa metsassa, hitainta paljaaksihakkuulla ja vanhassa (180 v), jo harventuneessa metsassa. Mietoporonjakala kasvoi nopeimmin 90 cm:n taimikossa ja hitaimmin varjoisimmalla kasvupaikalla. Tulosten perusteella on vaikea yhtya kasitykseen, etta paljaaksihakkuu sinansa vahentaa poronjakalien kasvunopeutta. Myos poronhoidon kannalta on kuitenkin tarkeaa, etta uusi metsa saadaan aikaan mahdollisimman nopeasti, silla molemmat lajit kasvavat nopeimmin eri-ikaisissa nuorissa metsissa