Revisiting the Meteor 1925-1927 hydrographic dataset reveals centennial full-depth changes in the Atlantic Ocean

The hydrographic data set of the German Atlantic Expedition (GAE) 1925-1927 is compared with the contemporary profiling float and ship-based hydrography to reveal full-depth changes in the Atlantic Ocean between 19°N and 64°S. The volume-mean warming over the last 80 years amounts to 0.119 ± 0.067°C, accompanied by an increase in salinity of 0.014 ± 0.010. A clear vertical structure of these changes is observed: on average, the ocean has warmed by 0.272 ± 0.093°C and became saltier by 0.030 ± 0.014 down to about 2000 m, but cooled and freshened slightly in the deeper layers. These changes can be traced throughout the whole hydrographic survey, indicating the basin-wide character of the observed changes on a centennial timescale. The observed warming is consistent with climate model simulations over the 20th century, suggesting an attribution to anthropogenic forcing. Comparison with the pre-GAE cruises reveals no discernible warming between the 1870s and 1906/1911. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions

Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation

Analyses of a 500-yr control integration with the non-flux-adjusted coupled atmosphere–sea ice–oceanmodel ECHAM5/Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) show pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of the Atlantic overturning circulation and the associated meridional heat transport. The period of the oscillations is about 70–80 yr. The low-frequency variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) contributes substantially to sea surface temperature and sea ice fluctuations in the North Atlantic.The strength of the overturning circulation is related to the convective activity in the deep-water formation regions, most notably the Labrador Sea, and the time-varying control on the freshwater export from the Arctic to the convection sites modulates the overturning circulation. The variability is sustained by an interplay between the storage and release of freshwater from the central Arctic and circulation changes in the Nordic Seas that are caused by variations in the Atlantic heat and salt transport. The relatively highresolution in the deep-water formation region and the Arctic Ocean suggests that a better representation of convective and frontal processes not only leads to an improvement in the mean state but also introduces new mechanisms determining multidecadal variability in large-scale ocean circulation

Air-sea interactions and water mass transformation during a katabatic storm in the Irminger Sea

We use a global 5-km resolution model to analyse the air-sea interactions during a katabatic storm in the Irminger Sea originating from the Ammassalik valleys. Katabatic storms have not yet been resolved in global climate models, raising the question of whether and how they modify water masses in the Irminger Sea. Our results show that dense water forms along the boundary current and on the shelf during the katabatic storm due to the heat loss caused by the high wind speeds and the strong temperature contrast. The dense water contributes to the North Atlantic Deep Water and thus to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The katabatic storm triggers a polar low, which in turn amplifies the near-surface wind speed in a positive feedback, in addition to acceleration from a breaking mountain wave. Resolving katabatic storms in global models is therefore important for the formation of dense water in the Irminger Sea, which is relevant to the AMOC, and for the large-scale atmospheric circulation by triggering polar low

High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the wind-driven coastal warm bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic

We investigate the strong warm bias in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the southeastern tropical Atlantic that occurs in most of the current global climate models. We analyse this bias in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at different horizontal resolutions ranging from 0.1° to 0.4° in the ocean and 0.5° to 1.8° in the atmosphere. High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the SST bias close to the African coast, due to an improved representation of surface wind-stress near the coast. This improvement affects coastal upwelling and horizontal ocean circulation, as confirmed with dedicated sensitivity experiments. The wind-stress improvements are partly caused by the better represented orography at higher horizontal resolution in the spectral atmospheric model. The reductions of the coastal SST bias obtained through higher horizontal resolution do not, however, translate to a reduction of the large-scale bias extending westward from the African coast into the southeastern tropical Atlantic

Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation ?

Climate projections for the 21st century indicate a gradual decrease of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The weakening could be accelerated substantially by meltwater input from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Here we repeat recent experiments conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, providing an idealized additional source of freshwater along Greenland’s coast. For conservative and high melting estimates, the AMOC reduction is 35% and 42%, respectively, compared to a weakening of 30% for the original A1B scenario. Even for the high meltwater estimate the AMOC recovers in the 22nd century. The impact of the additional fresh water is limited to further enhancing the static stability in the Irminger and Labrador Seas, whereas the backbone of the overturning is maintained by the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. Our results suggest that abrupt climate change initiated by GIS melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century

Arctic sea-ice evolution as modeled by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model

We describe the evolution of Arctic sea ice as modeled by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The modeled spatial distribution and interannual variability of the sea-ice cover agree well with satellite observations and are improved relative to the model's predecessor ECHAM5/MPIOM. An evaluation of modeled sea-ice coverage based on sea-ice area gives, however, conflicting results compared to an evaluation based on sea-ice extent and is additionally hindered by uncertainties in the observational record. Simulated trends in sea-ice coverage for the satellite period range from more strongly negative than observed to positive. The observed evolution of Arctic sea ice is incompatible with modeled internal variability and probably caused by external forcing. Simulated drift patterns agree well with observations, but simulated drift speed is generally too high. Simulated sea-ice volume agrees well with volume estimates of the PIOMAS reanalysis for the past few years. However, a preceding Arctic wide decrease in sea-ice volume starts much earlier in MPI-ESM than in PIOMAS. Analyzing this behavior in MPI-ESM's ocean model MPIOM, we find that the modeled volume trend depends crucially on the specific choice of atmospheric reanalysis forcing, which casts some doubt on the reliability of estimates of volume trends. In our CMIP5 scenario simulations, we find a substantial delay in sea-ice response to increasing CO2 concentration; a seasonally ice-free Arctic can result for a CO2 concentration of around 500 ppm. Simulated winter sea-ice coverage drops rapidly to near ice-free conditions once the mean Arctic winter temperature exceeds −5°C

Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002-11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions

On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century.

The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the effects from combinations of one volcanic with two different solar forcing reconstructions (SATIRE and PMOD) suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4) by simulating the early 19th century climate. From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is in general additive, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE and PMOD) contribute on average ~0.05 K/month and ~0.15 K/month surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling peak of ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the cooling in most regions reduces largely within 5 years when a global cooling of ~0.34 K is reached, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the cooling reduces only slowly with a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the increased Arctic sea-ice extent. Also, the albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite responses. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extra-tropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates