Job Re-grading, Real Wages, and the Cycle

This paper makes use of the British New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset between 1976 and 2010. It consists of individual-level payroll data and comprises a random sample of 1% of the entire male and female labor force. About two-thirds of within- and between-company moves involve job re-grading (measured at 3-digit occupation level) while one-third of movers retain their job titles. We find that the real wages of both male and female workers who change job titles within companies are significantly more procyclical than job stayers. This lends support to the predicted procyclical real wage effects of the Reynolds-Reder-Hall job re-grading hypothesis. On the extensive margin, title changers and title retainers who move jobs between companies exhibit the same degrees of wage cyclicality and these are considerably greater than for job stayers.real wage cyclicality, spot wages, job moves, job re-grading

Similarity and attraction effects in episodic memory judgments

In the decision-making literature, it is known that preferences between two options can be influenced in different ways by the introduction of a third option. We investigated whether such influences could be demonstrated when making decisions about qualitative aspects of episodic memories. In a baseline condition, participants were asked which of two dissimilar events they remembered more vividly: (A) a well-known Olympic victory, or (B) the death of a well-known public figure. In two further conditions, a third event was added: (C) an Olympic victory similar and competitive to A, or (D) an Olympic victory similar but inferior to A. With the addition of C, participants were less likely to choose A than B (similarity effect), whereas with the addition of D, they were more likely to choose A than B (attraction effect), suggesting that effects known in decision-making can be generalised to relative judgments about episodic memories

Real wages, working time, and the great depression: What does micro evidence tell us?

Based largely on industry-level aggregate statistics, the prevailing view, and one that has strongly influenced macroeconomic thought, is that real wages during the cycle containing the Great Depression are either acyclical or countercyclical. Does this finding hold-up when more micro data are employed? We examine this question based on detailed blue-collar workers' company payroll data for a large section of the British engineering and metal working industries. We distinguish between pieceworkers and timeworkers, with pieceworkers accounting for over half the workforce. For the period 1927 to 1937, the two pay groups are broken down into 14 occupations, and 48 travel-to-work geographical districts. We estimate wage and hours cyclicality in respect of the national unemployment rate as well as the district rates. Weekly hours and real weekly earnings are found to be strongly procyclical. Real hourly earnings of pieceworkers are also significantly procyclical. The roles of standard and overtime hours are crucial to these findings

Spot wages, job changes, and the cycle

This paper makes use of the British New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset between 1976 and 2010. Individual‐level pay and hours data are obtained from company payrolls and consist of a random sample of 1% of the entire British male and female labor force. We find that the real wages of both male and female workers who change job titles within companies are significantly more procyclical than job stayers. Wage cyclicality of internal job movers who retain their job titles is the same as that of job stayers. This lends support to the predicted procyclical real wage effects of the Reynolds‐Reder‐Hall job re‐grading hypothesis. On the extensive margin, title changers and title retainers who move jobs between companies exhibit the same degrees of wage cyclicality and these are significantly greater than for job stayers. We argue that our findings are compatible with earlier research that has established the importance of spot market wage setting in Britain

Job re-grading, real wages, and the cycle

This paper makes use of the British New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset between 1976 and 2010. It consists of individual-level payroll data and comprises a random sample of 1% of the entire male and female labor force. About two-thirds of within- and between-company moves involve job re-grading (measured at 3-digit occupation level) while one-third of movers retain their job titles. We find that the real wages of both male and female workers who change job titles within companies are significantly more procyclical than job stayers. This lends support to the predicted procyclical real wage effects of the Reynolds-Reder-Hall job re-grading hypothesis. On the extensive margin, title changers and title retainers who move jobs between companies exhibit the same degrees of wage cyclicality and these are considerably greater than for job stayers

Real wages, working time, and the Great Depression

We have assembled two British data sets to re-examine the behaviour of real wages over the 1927-1937 cycle that contained the Great Depression. Both provide a degree of micro detail that greatly exceeds previous studies. The first consists of annual wages for 36 manufacturing industries. The second is based on blue-collar workers’ company payroll data within engineering and metal working firms. It allows us to distinguish between pieceworkers and timeworkers, 14 occupations and 51 travel-to-work geographical districts. We measure the cycle using national unemployment rates as well as rates that match our industrial and district breakdowns. The roles of standard and overtime hours are found to be crucial to the behaviour of real pay during the Depression. Real weekly earnings are strongly procyclical. Real hourly earnings of pieceworkers are also significantly procyclical. Otherwise, real wage measures that do not fully reflect hours changes produce either weak procyclical or acyclical wage responses

The rise and fall of piecework–timework wage differentials: market volatility, labor heterogeneity, and output pricing

Based on detailed payroll data of blue collar male and female labor in Britain's engineering and metal working industrial sectors between the mid-1920s and mid-1960s, we provide empirical evidence in respect of several central themes in the piecework-timework wage literature. The period covers part of the heyday of pieceworking as well as the start of its post-war decline. We show the importance of relative piece rate flexibility during the Great Depression as well as during the build up to WWII and during the war itself. We account for the very significant decline in the differentials after the war. Labor market topics include piecework pay in respect of compensating differentials, labor heterogeneity, and the transaction costs of pricing piecework output

Industrial composition, methods of compensation, and real earnings in the Great Depression

In an extension of an earlier paper (Hart and Roberts, 2012), we investigate the pay and working time of blue-collar timeworkers and pieceworkers during the Great Depression within British engineering firms. We compare and contrast southern/midland engineering districts of Britain with northern districts. The south/midlands region was dominated by piece-rated workers and by modern sections of the industry, such as vehicle and aircraft manufacture. Time-rated work predominated in northern districts where older sections – for example, marine and textile engineering – were clustered. These contrasting industrial compositions and associated payment methods offer further insights into manufacturing real earnings responses to the Great Depression

Real wage cyclicality and the Great Depression: evidence from British engineering and metal working firms

Based on firm‐level payroll data from around 2000 member firms of the British Engineering Employers’ Federation we examine the behavior of real hourly earnings over the 1927‐1937 cycle that contained the Great Depression. The pay statistics are based on adult male blue‐collar workers within engineering and metal working firms. They allow us to distinguish between pieceworkers and timeworkers and they are delineated by 14 occupations and 51 travel‐to‐work geographical engineering districts. We measure the cycle using national unemployment rates as well as rates that match our district breakdowns. Differences are found in the real hourly earnings cyclicality of pieceworkers and timeworkers. We attempt to relate our findings to those of modern micro panel data studies of real wage cyclicality. We offer some insight into why the estimates of real hourly pay display less procyclicality during the 1920s and 1930s than in studies based on more recent data

Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model

The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change. In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall. Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection