Modeling and forecasting extreme hot events in the central Ebro Valley, a continental-mediterranean area

This work has three objectives, first, to analyze the observed change in the summer maximum daily temperature during the period 1951–2004, in the centre of the Ebro river basin, a region situated in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula. Secondly, to characterize the extreme hot event behaviour by means of a statistical model consisting of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, to represent the occurrence, and three regression models, each with an adequate non-Normal error distribution, to model its severity. The model parameters are allowed to depend on temperature covariates, to take into account the influence of global warming in hot event generating process. Finally, using the fitted model and different outputs from a GCM, we obtain a medium term projection, up to 2050, of the expected behaviour of these extreme events

Time-critical decentralised situational awareness in emergencies: An adversarial biosecurity scenario

Abstract Crises in a global setting of interdependencies call for time-critical coordinated responses. However, it is often the case that the mechanisms responsible for these actions do not agree across all their hierarchies. This can be roughly attributed to personal estimations of the situation and to social influence. An ensuing lack of consensus against crises can be dire and echo across entire populations. One such instance is the case of biosecurity threats. A particularly interesting class of threats lie within urban environments, which tend to fall within the scope of bad actors. With this work we aim to computationally contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of perceived danger formation among agents responsible for responding to ongoing biological attacks in urban settings. We assume this perception is a function of a personal estimation of local information about the danger and of social influence stemming from the agents in question framed in an agent-based model. The simulations point towards a high dependence of perceived dangers on the personal estimations of the agents. The conditions under which the perceived dangers deviate from the real ones are explored over a range of assumptions on personal measurements and several dispositions towards the influencing environment. The insight provided by these results at the individual and collective level set the tone for further investigation on such behavioural phenomena, providing a flexible computational framework addressing generic threats (true dangers) in a time-critical context

TREX-DM: a low background Micromegas-based TPC for low-mass WIMP detection

Dark Matter experiments are recently focusing their detection techniques in low-mass WIMPs, which requires the use of light elements and low energy threshold. In this context, we describe the TREX-DM experiment, a low background Micromegas-based TPC for low-mass WIMP detection. Its main goal is the operation of an active detection mass $\sim$0.3 kg, with an energy threshold below 0.4 keVee and fully built with previously selected radiopure materials. This work describes the commissioning of the actual setup situated in a laboratory on surface and the updates needed for a possible physics run at the Canfranc Underground Laboratory (LSC) in 2016. A preliminary background model of TREX-DM is also presented, based on a Geant4 simulation, the simulation of the detector's response and two discrimination methods: a conservative muon/electron and one based on a neutron source. Based on this background model, TREX-DM could be competitive in the search for low-mass WIMPs. In particular it could be sensitive, e.g., to the low-mass WIMP interpretation of the DAMA/LIBRA and other hints in a conservative scenario.Comment: Proceedings of the XIV International Conference on Topics in Astroparticle and Underground Physics (TAUP 2015), 7-11 September 2015, Torino, Ital

Neutron background at the Canfranc Underground Laboratory and its contribution to the IGEX-DM dark matter experiment

A quantitative study of the neutron environment in the Canfranc Underground Laboratory has been performed. The analysis is based on a complete set of simulations and, particularly, it is focused on the IGEX-DM dark matter experiment. The simulations are compared to the IGEX-DM low energy data obtained with different shielding conditions. The results of the study allow us to conclude, with respect to the IGEX-DM background, that the main neutron population, coming from radioactivity from the surrounding rock, is practically eliminated after the implementation of a suitable neutron shielding. The remaining neutron background (muon-induced neutrons in the shielding and in the rock) is substantially below the present background level thanks to the muon veto system. In addition, the present analysis gives us a further insight on the effect of neutrons in other current and future experiments at the Canfranc Underground Laboratory. The comparison of simulations with the body of data available has allowed to set the flux of neutrons from radioactivity of the Canfranc rock, (3.82 +- 0.44) x 10^{-6} cm^{-2} s^{-1}, as well as the flux of muon-induced neutrons in the rock, (1.73 +- 0.22(stat) \+- 0.69(syst)) x 10^{-9} cm^{-2} s^{-1}, or the rate of neutron production by muons in the lead shielding, (4.8 +- 0.6 (stat) +- 1.9 (syst)) x 10^{-9} cm^{-3} s^{-1}.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, elsart document class; final version to appear in Astroparticle Physic

Using Wavelets to reject background in Dark Matter experiments

A method based on wavelet techniques has been developed and applied to background rejection in the data of the IGEX dark matter experiment. The method is presented and described in some detail to show how it efficiently rejects events coming from noise and microphonism through a mathematical inspection of their recorded pulse shape. The result of the application of the method to the last data of IGEX is presented.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to Astrop. Phy

Producer Nutritional Quality Controls Ecosystem Trophic Structure

Trophic structure, or the distribution of biomass among producers and consumers, determines key ecosystem values, such as the abundance of infectious, harvestable or conservation target species, and the storage and cycling of carbon and nutrients. There has been much debate on what controls ecosystem trophic structure, yet the answer is still elusive. Here we show that the nutritional quality of primary producers controls the trophic structure of ecosystems. By increasing the efficiency of trophic transfer, higher producer nutritional quality results in steeper ecosystem trophic structure, and those changes are more pronounced in terrestrial than in aquatic ecosystems probably due to the more stringent nutritional limitation of terrestrial herbivores. These results explain why ecosystems composed of highly nutritional primary producers feature high consumer productivity, fast energy recycling, and reduced carbon accumulation. Anthropogenic changes in producer nutritional quality, via changes in trophic structure, may alter the values and functions of ecosystems, and those alterations may be more important in terrestrial ecosystems