The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim

BACKGROUND: Planning public health responses against pandemic influenza relies on predictive models by which the impact of different intervention strategies can be evaluated. Research has to date rather focused on producing predictions for certain localities or under specific conditions, than on designing a publicly available planning tool which can be applied by public health administrations. Here, we provide such a tool which is reproducible by an explicitly formulated structure and designed to operate with an optimal combination of the competing requirements of precision, realism and generality. RESULTS: InfluSim is a deterministic compartment model based on a system of over 1,000 differential equations which extend the classic SEIR model by clinical and demographic parameters relevant for pandemic preparedness planning. It allows for producing time courses and cumulative numbers of influenza cases, outpatient visits, applied antiviral treatment doses, hospitalizations, deaths and work days lost due to sickness, all of which may be associated with economic aspects. The software is programmed in Java, operates platform independent and can be executed on regular desktop computers. CONCLUSION: InfluSim is an online available software which efficiently assists public health planners in designing optimal interventions against pandemic influenza. It can reproduce the infection dynamics of pandemic influenza like complex computer simulations while offering at the same time reproducibility, higher computational performance and better operability

Effectiveness of temozolomide for primary glioblastoma multiforme in routine clinical practice

Temozolomide has been used as a standard therapy for the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme since 2005. To assess the effectiveness of temozolomide in routine clinical practice, we conducted an observational study at Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC). Data of patients receiving radiotherapy and temozolomide between January 2005 and January 2008 were retrieved from a clinical database (radiochemotherapy group), as were data of patients in a historical control group from the period before 2005 treated with radiotherapy only (radiotherapy group). The primary endpoint was overall survival. A total of 125 patients with GBM were selected to form the study cohort. Median survival benefit was 4 months: the median overall survival was 12 months (95% CI, 9.7–14.3) in the group with radiochemotherapy with temozolomide, versus 8 months (95% CI, 5.3–10.7) in the group with only radiotherapy. Progression-free survival was 7 months (95% CI, 5.5–8.5) in the radiochemotherapy group and 4 months (95% CI, 2.9-5.1) in the group with only radiotherapy. The two-year survival rate was 18% with radiochemotherapy with temozolomide against 4% with radiotherapy alone. Concomitant treatment with radiotherapy and temozolomide followed by adjuvant temozolomide resulted in grade III or IV haematological toxic effects in 9% of patients. The addition of temozolomide to radiotherapy in routine clinical practice for newly diagnosed glioblastoma resulted in a clinically meaningful survival benefit with minimal haematological toxicity, which confirms the experience of previous trials and justifies the continued use of temozolomide in routine clinical practice

Systematic development of a self-regulation weight-management intervention for overweight adults

Background. This paper describes the systematic development of an intervention for the prevention of obesity among overweight adults. Its development was guided by the six steps of Intervention Mapping (IM), in which the establishment of program needs, objectives and methods is followed by development of the intervention and an implementation and evaluation plan. Methods. Weight gain prevention can be achieved by making small changes in dietary intake (DI) or physical activity (PA). The intervention objectives, derived from self-regulation theory, were to establish goal-oriented behaviour. They were translated into a computer-tailored Internet-delivered intervention consisting of four modules. The intervention includes strategies to target the main determinants of self-regulation, such as feedback and action planning. The first module is intended to ensure adults' commitment to preventing weight gain, choosing behaviour change and action initiation. The second and third modules are intended to evaluate behaviour change, and to adapt action and coping plans. The fourth module is intended to maintain self-regulation of body weight without use of the program. The intervention is being evaluated for its efficacy in an RCT, whose protocol is described in this paper. Primary outcomes are weight, waist circumference and skin-fold thickness. Other outcomes are DI, PA, cognitive mediators and self-regulation skills. Discussion. The IM protocol helped us integrating insights from various theories. The performance objectives and methods were guided by self-regulation theory but empirical evidence with regard to the effectiveness of theoretical methods was limited. Sometimes, feasibility issues made it necessary to deviate from the original, theory-based plans. With this paper, we provide transparency with regard to intervention development and evaluation. Trial registration. NTR1862

Equity-specific effects of 26 Dutch obesity-related lifestyle interventions

Context Reducing health inequalities is a policy priority in many developed countries. Little is known about effective strategies to reduce inequalities in obesity and its underlying behaviors. The goal of the study was to investigate differential effectiveness of interventions aimed at obesity prevention, the promotion of physical activity or a healthy diet by SES. Evidence acquisition Subgroup analyses in 2010 and 2011 of 26 Dutch studies funded by The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development after 1990 (n=17) or identified by expert contact (n=9). Methodologic quality and differential effects were synthesized in harvest plots, subdivided by setting, age group, intensity, and time to follow-up. Evidence synthesis Seven lifestyle interventions were rated more effective and four less effective in groups with high SES; for 15 studies no differential effects could be demonstrated. One study in the healthcare setting showed comparable effects in both socioeconomic groups. The only mass media campaign provided modest evidence for higher effectiveness among those with high SES. Individually tailored and workplace interventions were either more effective in higher-SES groups (n=4) or no differential effects were demonstrated (n=9). School-based studies (n=7) showed mixed results. Two of six community studies provided evidence for better effectiveness in lower-SES groups; none were more effective in higher-SES groups. One high-intensity community-based study provided best evidence for higher effectiveness in low-SES groups. Conclusions Although for the majority of interventions aimed at obesity prevention, the promotion of physical activity, or a healthy diet, no differential effectiveness could be demonstrated, interventions may widen as well as reduce socioeconomic inequalities in these outcomes. Equity-specific subgroup analyses contribute to needed knowledge about what may work to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in obesity and underlying health behaviors