Thin-walled pressure vessel Patent

Thin walled pressure test vessel using low-melting alloy-filled joint to attach shell to head

The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality; bi-variate GARCH.

Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand

Wagner’s Law states that the share of government expenditure in GNP will increase with economic development; many associated empirical studies substitute GNP with GDP. This paper presents an empirical investigation into the validity of Wagner’s Law for New Zealand over the period 1960-2007 and compares the results obtained using these two measures of output. Application of the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test suggests a cointegrating relationship between either output measure and the share of government spending, and further application of General to Specific, Engle and Granger, Phillip Hansen’s Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Johansen’s time series techniques illustrate statistical robustness and an income elasticity between 0.56 and 0.84. The results suggest that output measures Granger-cause the share of government expenditure in the long run, thereby providing support for Wagner’s Law, and these results are stable irrespective of the chosen output measure.Government spending; GNP; GDP; Cointegration; Granger causality

Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties

Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die Out-of-sample-Prognose verbessern. Unsere Untersuchung testet diese Anforderungen für deutsche Daten. Dazu werden Methoden der Spektralanalyse, verschiedene Granger-Tests und Out-of-sample-Prognosen verwendet. Nur wenige Indikatoren bestehen die Tests auf die geforderten Eigenschaften. Ihre Einbeziehung in VAR-basierte Prognosen verbessert die Prognoseleistung in der sehr kurzen Frist. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to German data. We used frequency domain analysis, different Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only few indicators passed all tests. Their inclusion into VAR-based forecasts improves the forecast in the very short run.

Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes?: Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we use a representative consumer model to analyse the equilibrium relation between the transitory deviations from the common trend among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and focus on the implications for both stock returns and housing returns. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are seen as complements to stocks, then investors react in the same way, but if they are instead treated as substitutes consumption will be temporarily reduced.consumption, wealth, stock returns, housing returns, OECD countries

Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles

Die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Geldpolitik in elf europäischen Ländern erhöhte die Bedeutung von konjunkturellen Frühindikatoren für dieses Gebiet. Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die Out-of-sample-Prognose verbessern. Unsere Untersuchung testet diese Anforderungen für Euroland-Daten. Dazu werden Methoden der Spektralanalyse, verschiedene Granger-Kausalitäts-Tests und Out-of-sample-Prognosen verwendet. Nur wenige Indikatoren bestehen die Tests auf die geforderten Eigenschaften, wobei die nichtmonetären Indikatoren besser abschneiden. The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to Euroland data. We use frequency domain analysis, Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only a few indicators pass all tests, while the non-monetary indicators perform best.

George W. Friedrich Park

In November 1934, St. Cloud State Teachers College (now St. Cloud State University) President George A. Selke announced the purchase of 51 acres of abandoned granite quarry land in southeast St. Cloud. Added to property the college already owned, the site became what is now known as George W. Friedrich Park. Though officially closed in 1976, the park has been used throughout its existence as was originally intended, as an outdoor education, recreation and conservation area. Located about one mile from campus on the east end of University Drive (then Michigan Avenue) the site has remained intact despite repeated threats to this quiet wilderness from road expansion and development. The City of St. Cloud is currently in the process of reopening the park, having completed a land exchange for a portion of the property and stating its desire to acquire the remainder of the approximately 114 acre site. As it assumes stewardship, the city is acknowledging the value of preserving and sharing a significant cultural resource. A place of quiet grandeur and natural beauty, George W. Friedrich Park holds the distinction of being the birthplace of Minnesota’s granite industry and an early conservation masterpiece

Structure and Dynamics of Brain Lobes Functional Networks at the Onset of Anesthesia Induced Loss of Consciousness

Anesthetic agents are neurotropic drugs able to induce dramatic alterations in the thalamo-cortical system, promoting a drastic reduction in awareness and level of consciousness. There is experimental evidence that general anesthesia impacts large scale functional networks leading to alterations in the brain state. However, the way anesthetics affect the structure assumed by functional connectivity in different brain regions have not been reported yet. Within this context, the present study has sought to characterize the functional brain networks respective to the frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes. In this experiment, electro-physiological neural activity was recorded through the use of a dense ECoG-electrode array positioned directly over the cortical surface of an old world monkey of the species Macaca fuscata. Networks were serially estimated over time at each five seconds, while the animal model was under controlled experimental conditions of an anesthetic induction process. In each one of the four cortical brain lobes, prominent alterations on distinct properties of the networks evidenced a transition in the networks architecture, which occurred within about one and a half minutes after the administration of the anesthetics. The characterization of functional brain networks performed in this study represents important experimental evidence and brings new knowledge towards the understanding of neural correlates of consciousness in terms of the structure and properties of the functional brain networks.Comment: 41 pages; 30 figures; 30 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1604.0000

Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?

There exits two groups of studies that have investigated the short-run and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance. The first group has employed trade data at the aggregate level between one country and the rest of the world. The second group has used trade data at the bilateral level between one country and her major trading partners. Both groups have provided mixed conclusions. In this paper we employ import and export data at industry level. Sixty six industries in the U.S. (SITC Commodity Groupings) have been identified for which monthly data over the January 1991-August 2002 period are used in investigating the short-run and the long-run effects of real depreciation of the dollar. The results reveal evidence of the J-Curve effect only in six industries. However, the long-run favorable effect of real depreciation is supported in 22 industries