Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators.Survey Data; Indicators; Quantification; Forecasting; Forecast Combination

Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests

Answering the question of how much wealth inequality arises from inheritance inequality requires data that are unavailable and potentially uncollectable. The alternative approach taken here (from Blinder [1974, 1976] and Davies [1982]) is to simulate the transmission of inequality via bequests.Wealth

Cathodic protection of reinforced concrete:anodic processes in cements and related electrolytes

The nature and kinetics of electrode reactions and processes occurring for four lightweight anode systems which have been utilised in reinforced concrete cathodic protection systems have been studied. The anodes investigated were flame sprayed zinc, conductive paint and two activated titanium meshes. The electrochemical properties of each material were investigated in rapidly stirred de-oxygenated electrolytes using anodic potentiodynamic polarisation. Conductive coating electrodes were formed on glass microscope slides, whilst mesh strands were immersed directly. Oxygen evolution occurred preferentially for both mesh anodes in saturated Ca (OH)2/CaC12 solutions but was severely inhibited in less alkaline solutions and significant current only passed in chloride solutions. The main reactions for conductive paint was based on oxygen evolution in all electrolytes, although chlorides increased the electrical activity. Self-corrosion of zinc was controlled by electrolyte composition and the experimental set-up, chlorides increasing the electrical activity. Impressed current cathodic protection was applied to 25 externally exposed concrete slabs over a period of 18 months to investigate anode degradation mechanisms at normal and high current densities. Specimen chloride content, curing and reinforcement depth were also variables. Several destructive and non-destructive methods for assessing the performance of anodes were evaluated including a site instrument for quantitative "instant-off- potential measurements. The impact of cathodic protection on the concrete substrate was determined for a number of specimens using appropriate methods. Anodic degradation rates were primarily influenced by current density, followed by cemendtious alkalinity, chloride levels and by current distribution. Degradation of cementitious overlays and conductive paint substrates proceeded by sequential neutralisation of cement phases, with some evidence of paint binder oxidation. Sprayed zinc progressively formed an insulating layer of hydroxide complexes, which underwent pitting_ attack in the presence of sufficient chlorides, whilst substrate degradation was minimal. Adhesion of all anode systems decreased with increasing current density. The influence of anode material on the ionic gradients which can develop during cathodic protection was investigated. A constant current was passed through saturated cement paste prisms containing calcium chloride to central cathodes via anodes applied or embedded at each end. Pore solution was obtained from successive cut paste slices for anion and cation analyses. Various experimental errors reduced the value of the results. Characteristic S-shaped profiles were not observed and chloride ion profiles were ambiguous. Mesh anode specimens were significantly more durable than the conductive coatings in the high humidity environment. Limited results suggested zinc ion migration to the cathode region. Electrical data from each investigation clearly indicated a decreasing order of anode efficiency by specific anode material

Simulating the Transmission of Wealth Inequity via Bequests

This paper develops, calibrates, and simulates a dynamic 88-period OLG model to study the intergenerational transmission of U.S. wealth inequality via bequests. The model features marriage, realistic fertility patterns, random death, assortative mating based on skills, heterogeneous skill endowments, heterogeneous rates of return, skill inheritability, progressive income taxation, and resource annuitization via social security. All bequests arise from imperfect annuitization. Nonetheless, the model generates a realistic ration of aggregate wealth to aggregate labor income, a realistic bequest flow relative to the stock of wealth, and a realistic wealth distribution at retirement. Skill differences, assortative mating, social security, and the time preference are the primary determinants of wealth inequality. Bequests do propagate wealth inequality, but only in the presence of social security, which disproportionately disinherits the lifetime poor. Intergenerational wealth immobility, also considered here, is primarily determined by the inheritance of skills from one's parents and the magnification of the impact of this inheritance by marital sorting.

Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period

Reforming the public health system in England

The abolition of Public Health England (PHE) during the COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of the public health system in the UK, particularly in England. The two new bodies established in haste to replace PHE prompt reflection on the executive agency's fate and the need to identify any lessons to ensure that a public health system is put in place that is fit for purpose. The UK COVID-19 Inquiry provides an opportunity to make recommendations, but it will need to act quickly to avoid recommendations being ignored. Two areas of concern are highlighted in this Viewpoint: the respective remits of the new bodies and their governance arrangements. Both issues demand urgent attention if the new structures are to succeed and avoid a similar fate to that which befell PHE. But underlying these concerns is a much larger challenge arising from the UK's broken political system. The political system in the UK suffers from several systemic weaknesses, including departmentalism, poor implementation, an inability or unwillingness of those in power to listen to the truth, and chronic short-termism at the expense of long-term planning. Overhauling the UK's dysfunctional political system is a prerequisite for successfully improving the public health system

Spectrum of injuries resulting from gunshot wounds in car hijacking: a South African experience.

BACKGROUND: Car hijacking, known as “carjacking”, is a form of aggravated robbery of a vehicle from the driver frequently involving firearm and is common in South Africa. There is, however, little literature on the spectrum of injuries sustained by victims of car hijacking. The study aimed to describe the spectrum of gunshot wound-related (GSW) injuries and review our experience of management of victims of car hijacking in our trauma center based in South Africa. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted during an 8-year period from January 2010 to January 2018 on all patients who presented with any form of GSW after a car hijacking incident. RESULTS: During the 8-year study period, a total of 101 patients were identified. Seventy-four percent were male (75 of 101) and the mean age was 34 years. The mean time from injury to arrival at our trauma center was 7 hours (rural district: 10 hours, urban district: 4 hours; p<0.001). Seventy-five percent (76 of 101) of all patients sustained GSWs to multiple body regions, whereas the remaining 25% (25 of 101) were confined to a single body region. The most common region involved was the chest (48 cases), followed by the abdomen (46 cases) and neck (34 cases). Sixty-three of the 101 (62%) patients required one or more operative interventions. The most common procedure was laparotomy (28 cases), followed by vascular (20 cases) and neck (14) exploration. Eighteen percent (18 of 101) of all patients required intensive care unit admission. The mean length of hospital stay was 7 days. The overall morbidity was 13% (16 of 101) and the overall mortality was 18% (18 of 101). DISCUSSION: The spectrum of injuries from GSW related to car hijacking commonly involves close range GSWs to multiple body regions. Torso trauma is common and a substantial proportion of victims require major operative interventions. The mortality from these injuries is significant. LEVELS OF EVIDENCE: Level III

Public health by organizational fix?

In August 2020 the UK government announced without warning the abolition of Public Health England (PHE), the principal UK agency for the promotion and protection of public health. We undertook a research programme seeking to understand the factors surrounding this decision. While the underlying issues are complex two competing interpretations have emerged: an 'official' explanation, which highlights the failure of PHE to scale up its testing capacity in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic as the fundamental reason for closing it down and a 'sceptical' interpretation, which ascribes the decision to blame-avoidance behaviour on the part of leading government figures. This paper reviews crucial claims in these two competing explanations exploring the arguments for and against each proposition. It concludes that neither is adequate and that the inability adequately to address the problem of testing (which triggered the decision to close PHE) lies deeper in the absence of the norms of responsible government in UK politics and the state. However our findings do provide some guidance to the two new organizations established to replace PHE to maximize their impact on public health. We hope that this information will contribute to the independent national COVID inquiry

People with aphasia creating an aphasia friendly website: The DMU4 experience

People with aphasia creating an aphasia friendly website: The DMU4 experience Bixley,M., DMU4, Hall, R., Weale, R., Collingwood, J., Marshall, F. & Hamilton, C. Background Information The DMU4 Conversation group is part of Aphasia Leicester; a community based, voluntary sector, long term support organisation for People with Aphasia (PWA). Members of DMU4 have experienced being unable to access information about their condition because of the way in which the information is presented. These personal experiences are supported by research such as the Care Quality Commission’s (2011) report that suggested that only 40% of social services in Britain provided information in an accessible way for PWA post stroke. In 2011, DMU4 created a leaflet about aphasia that was designed to be used in acute hospitals to educate stroke survivors, relatives and hospital staff about aphasia (Bixley et al, 2011). This leaflet has been distributed to hospitals, surgeries and Speech and Language Therapy Departments in Leicestershire and Rutland. Last year DMU4 decided that they would like to embark on a new project; creating a website about aphasia that was also accessible to PWA. Method The group decided that there were three main factors that needed to guide the construction and structure of the website. Firstly, people with aphasia would appear on the website as aphasia experts. Secondly, navigation around the website should be aphasia friendly, based on visual images and accessible written language. Lastly, members of DMU4 would retain copyright over their own images. For this reason, the site was hosted on “Our DMU Commons” a self organising space that allows users to co construct their own website using open source software. The content of the website was agreed through group discussions. Following these discussions, nine DMU4 members attended a whole day filming session in which their perceptions of aphasia were recorded. Films were then transcribed and edited into eleven themes using a grounded approach. Skeat & Perry (2007) suggest this approach is useful when investigating information that is not available anywhere else, such as the information presented in this website. Informed consent was elicited through discussions, meetings, film and website screenings and signed agreement. Results and discussion The DMU4 website project has two tangible outcomes. The first is that the site will be available to people who want to learn about aphasia. The second is that the resource will be available for Speech and Language Therapy students. Learning activities will enable students to practise recognising and understand aphasia from the perspective of those who live with the loss of language post stroke. The practices of DMU4 are rooted firmly in the social approach to aphasia therapy (Pound, Parr, Lindsay and Woolf, 2000). It is hoped that the website’s third, less measurable, outcome will be a contribution to overcoming the attitudinal and informational barriers that are experienced by PWA post stoke. References BIXLEY, M., DMU4 & HAMILTON, C. (2011) Aphasia – an information leaflet designed by people with aphasia. British Aphasiology Society Biennial International Conference Book of Abstracts, 12. CARE QUALITY COMMISSION (2011) Supporting life after stroke: A review of services for people who have had a stroke and their carers. London: Care Quality Commission. SKEAT, J. & PERRY, A. (2008). Grounded theory as a method for research in speech and language therapy. International Journal of Language and Communication Disorders, 43, 2, 95-109. POUND, C., PARR, S., LINDSAY, J. & WOOLF, C. (2000) Beyond Aphasia: Therapies for Living with Communication Disability. Bicester: Winslow