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Impact of New Irrigation Technology on the Texas High Plains: 1980-2020

Crop production on the Texas High Plains is constrained by limited and erratic rainfall, hence irrigation is important. Presently, 6 million acres, or 50% of regional cropland, are irrigated annually. Irrigation water is drawn from the Ogallala Aquifer, which has a recharge rate near zero, and is being depleted at the present rate of use. Future crop production is dependent on technology, as well as the resources available. Because water is a major limiting resource, technologies that increase plant available water, such as advanced irrigation distribution systems and soil moisture conserving tillage methods, are of particular interest, and are the focus of this study. Two levels of analysis were included. The first, a farm level analysis based upon representative counties showed the similarities and differences of response given particular resource endowments, technological options and price situations. Part of the analysis considers the impact of annual qroundwater withdrawal constraints on discounted net present value for a forty year planning horizon. The discounted net revenue was higher for lower discount rates, better commodity prices, and more advanced technology. However, alternative discount rates, prices, and technology did not change the optimum annual withdrawal limit. Lower initial groundwater resources reduced the revenue level and the optimal annual groundwater decline limit. The other part of the farm firm analysis covers expected costs, returns and cropping patterns for a single period. Prices have a significant influence on production, but a far greater impact on net returns. The value of production is 64% to 85% higher for normal prices versus low prices, while net returns are from 8 to 30 times higher. The amount of available groundwater was not as important as price in the determination of production levels, but it too had a significant impact on net returns. Comparing across representative counties, with prices, technology and groundwater situations held constant, the value of production varied more than $150 per acre, but net returns changed very little. The value of production increases 17% with advanced technology, but net revenue more than doubles. The second level of analysis, a regional analysis, addressed expected changes in cropland use, groundwater pumpage, production levels, input demand, and farm income over the next forty years, under select technology and price assumptions. Water availability and hence use, drops over time, reducing irrigated cropland, gross returns and net revenue. The demand for other inputs does not decline as quickly as water usage, indicating input substitution. Further, the decline in net revenue is greater than the reduction in gross returns or variable costs of production. The intensity of crop production declines and the mix of crops changes, reducing purchased input demand and lowering regional farm income. Advanced technology enhances the value of the groundwater resource, increasing water use especially in the later periods of the time horizon. Nontheless, over the whole 40 years, technologies which improve dryland, as well as irrigated, crop production, such as limited tillage and crop rotations, have a greater impact than advanced irrigation technology. While advanced technology enhances productivity and increases net returns, technology is not a substitute for irrigation. Nor does technology save groundwater resources in the large, since the increased value of the water, given advanced technology, encourages greater use, overall. Advanced technology, however, is important to the future of crop production in the region, since it increased the level of production, and net revenue. Further, the impact of technology was proportionally greater under the low commodity price scenarios than for average prices

Individual differences in naturalistic learning link negative emotionality to the development of anxiety

Organisms learn from prediction errors (PEs) to predict the future. Laboratory studies using small financial outcomes find that humans use PEs to update expectations and link individual differences in PE-based learning to internalizing disorders. Because of the low-stakes outcomes in most tasks, it is unclear whether PE learning emerges in naturalistic, high-stakes contexts and whether individual differences in PE learning predict psychopathology risk. Using experience sampling to assess 625 college students\u27 expected exam grades, we found evidence of PE-based learning and a general tendency to discount negative PEs, an optimism bias. However, individuals with elevated negative emotionality, a personality trait linked to the development of anxiety disorders, displayed a global pessimism and learning differences that impeded accurate expectations and predicted future anxiety symptoms. A sensitivity to PEs combined with an aversion to negative PEs may result in a pessimistic and inaccurate model of the world, leading to anxiety

Recursive Programming Model for Crop Production on the Texas High Plains

A flexible, recursive programming model of crop production on the Texas High Plains was developed. Besides the linear programming (LP) Optimization routine and recursive feedback section, the model also includes a matrix generator and report writer to make scenario definition and output analysts faster and easier. The production activities for each run of the model, are defined for one acre of a specific crop or crop rotation, irrigated at particular times, using a chosen irrigation distribution system and tillage method, on a given land class. The irrigation level may be zero (i.e. dryland) and the land class can include terracing when appropriate. The objective function for the LP optimization routine is the maximization of net returns (gross returns minus all variable, or variable and fixed, costs) to land, water and management. For static runs, the maximization includes net returns over variable costs only; for temporal runs, over variable and fixed costs. LP constraints include land by soil class, irrigation water availability for each of 18 irrigation periods and a total annual water use constraint. The model can be run as either a static single period optimization or as a recursive, temporal model When operated in the recursive mode, the model will loop through up to 20 iterations, rebuilding the LP matrix for each iteration and writing a report for each period. The feedback section of the recursive model is used to update the groundwater situation after solution of each iteration. The amount of groundwater used is summed and that usage translated into the reduction in aquifer saturated thickness, increased pump lift and reduced well yield per period. The new groundwater situation plus any inputted changes in prices, technical efficiencies or crop yields form the data, from which the production activities and constraints for the next iteration are built. At the end of the prescribed number of iterations, a summary report covering the whole time horizon is written and the discounted present value of net returns is calculated at three prescribed discount rates

Erosion and deposition on the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico, and implications for geomorphic responses to late Quaternary climatic changes

The Pajarito Plateau of northern New Mexico contains a rich and diverse record of late Quaternary landscape changes in a variety of geomorphic settings that include gently-sloping mesa tops, steep canyon walls, and canyon bottoms. A broad range of investigations during the past decade, motivated by environmental and seismic hazard concerns, have resulted in examination of the characteristics, stratigraphy, and age of sediments and soils at numerous locations throughout the Plateau. Geochronologic control is provided by >140 radiocarbon dates supplemented by soil characterization and tephrochronology. In this paper we first summarize some of the results of recent and ongoing work on late Quaternary deposits on the Pajarito Plateau, illustrating both the complexity of the geomorphic record and some common elements that have been observed in multiple locations. We then use these observations, in combination with other work in the Southwest, to make some inferences about the local geomorphic response to regional climatic changes. Because the geomorphic and paleoclimatic records are fragmentary, and because the relations between large scale climate changes and local variations in precipitation, vegetation, and geomorphic processes are not fully understood, many uncertainties exist concerning the response of the local landscape to past climatic fluctuations. In addition, variations in local landscape sensitivity related to prior erosional history and spatial variations in vegetation, and the localized nature of many storms, probably contribute to the complexity of the geomorphic record. Nevertheless, the work discussed in this paper suggests a strong relation between regional climatic changes and local geomorphic history, and provides a framework for considering relations between modem processes, the record of past landscape changes, and future erosion and deposition on the Plateau and in surrounding areas

Ethanol reversal of tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of morphine

Opioids are the most common drugs associated with unintentional drug overdose. Death results from respiratory depression. Prolonged use of opioids results in the development of tolerance but the degree of tolerance is thought to vary between different effects of the drugs. Many opioid addicts regularly consume alcohol (ethanol), and post-mortem analyses of opioid overdose deaths have revealed an inverse correlation between blood morphine and ethanol levels. In the present study, we determined whether ethanol reduced tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of opioids. Mice were treated with opioids (morphine, methadone, or buprenorphine) for up to 6 days. Respiration was measured in freely moving animals breathing 5% CO(2) in air in plethysmograph chambers. Antinociception (analgesia) was measured as the latency to remove the tail from a thermal stimulus. Opioid tolerance was assessed by measuring the response to a challenge dose of morphine (10 mg/kg i.p.). Tolerance developed to the respiratory depressant effect of morphine but at a slower rate than tolerance to its antinociceptive effect. A low dose of ethanol (0.3 mg/kg) alone did not depress respiration but in prolonged morphine-treated animals respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered with the morphine challenge. Ethanol did not alter the brain levels of morphine. In contrast, in methadone- or buprenorphine-treated animals no respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered along with the morphine challenge. As heroin is converted to morphine in man, selective reversal of morphine tolerance by ethanol may be a contributory factor in heroin overdose deaths

TSG-6 as a biomarker to predict efficacy of human mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells (hMSCs) in modulating sterile inflammation in vivo

Human mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells (hMSCs) from bone marrow and other tissues are currently being administered to large numbers of patients even though there are no biomarkers that accurately predict their efficacy in vivo. Using a mouse model of chemical injury of the cornea, we found that bone-marrow–derived hMSCs isolated from different donors varied widely in their efficacy in modulating sterile inflammation. Importantly, RT-PCR assays of hMSCs for the inflammation-modulating protein TSG-6 expressed by the TNFα-stimulated gene 6 (TSG-6 or TNFAIP6) predicted their efficacy in sterile inflammation models for corneal injury, sterile peritonitis, and bleomycin-induced lung injury. In contrast, the levels of TSG-6 mRNA were negatively correlated with their potential for osteogenic differentiation in vitro and poorly correlated with other criteria for evaluating hMSCs. Also, a survey of a small cohort suggested that hMSCs from female donors compared with male donors more effectively suppressed sterile inflammation, expressed higher levels of TSG-6, and had slightly less osteogenic potential

Evaluating the need for an animal welfare assurance programme in South Tyrolean dairy farming

Animal welfare assurance is of great importance as dairy farming is recently under increasing pressure to meet societal and commercial expectations. Therefore, this study aims to determine the current welfare situation of dairy cattle housed in tie-stalls and free stalls in South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps) in order to evaluate the need for establishment of an animal welfare assurance programme. For reasons of research economy, a protocol was used for data collection that would also be applicable for practical use in an animal welfare assurance scheme. Analyses of resource-based and animal-based indicators recorded in 204 farms in North and South Tyrol (1891 dairy cows) reveal some important animal welfare problems mainly related to the provision of resources and the prevalence of skin alterations especially in tie-stall barns, which are still widely spread in mountain areas. Hence, the implementation of an animal welfare assurance scheme is urgently needed to reflect public concerns through regular and standardised monitoring of welfare indicators and continuous encouragement of improvements in dairy cattle welfare towards predefined targets. Concerning tie-stalls, interventions in stall design as well as the selective use of local breeds best adapted to the mountainous conditions appear to be appropriate measures to optimise dairy cattle health and welfare. These findings substantiate the high value of the data that would be collected as part of the assurance programme to gain insights, which could be used in preventive and corrective health plans to improve welfare-friendliness in dairy farming of South Tyrol