Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Inflation Asymmetries

This paper re-examines evidence relating mean inflation to cross- sectional inflation asymmetry, and investigates longitudinal asymmetry in disaggregated price series. The asymmetry test used possesses two important characteristics: it has high power, and it is not dominated by outliers. In contrast to Bryan and Cecchetti (1996), the results here suggest that there does exist significant positive correlation between mean inflation and cross-sectional inflation asymmetry. However, the explanatory power of median inflation is small. Longitudinal inflation asymmetry is evident in almost all the price series investigated here, regardless of frequency. This finding is intriguing, as neither money nor output growth is asymmetric.

A Framework for Studying Economic Interactions (with applications to corruption and business cycles)

Most economic models implicitly or explicitly assume that interactions between economic agents are 'global' - in other words, each agent interacts in a uniform manner with every other agent. However, localized interactions between microeconomic agents are a pervasive feature of reality. What are the implications of more limited interaction? One set of mathematical tools which appears useful in exploring the economic implications of local interactions is the theory of interacting particle systems. Unfortunately, the extant theory mainly addresses the long-time behavior of infinite systems, and focuses on the issue of ergodicity; many economic applications involve a finite number of agents and are concerned with other issues, such as the extent of shock amplification. In this paper, I introduce a framework for studying local interactions that is applicable to a wide class of games. In this framework, agents receive shocks which are stochastically independent; payoffs depend both upon the shocks and the strategies of other agents. In finite games, ergodicity is straightforward to determine. In finite games which evolve in continuous time, the stationary distribution (if it exists) may be computed easily; furthermore, in this class of games, I prove that any stationary distribution may be attained by suitable choice of payoff functions using shocks which are distributed uniform on (0, 1). In systems in which all interactions are global, I prove that nonlinear behavior can arise even in the infinite limit (thus demonstrating that laws of large numbers can fail in systems characterized by interaction), despite the fact that the only driving forces are agent-level iid disturbances. Using numerical methods, I investigate the properties of the processes as one passes from discrete to continuous time, as one alters the pattern of interaction, and as one increases the number of interacting agents. In so doing, I provide further evidence that the existence of local interactions can change the aggregate behavior of an economic system in fundamental ways, and that the form of that interaction has important implications for its dynamic properties.

A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries

Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series representation (useful, for example, in both forecasting and policy guidance). Further, asymmetries can help determine underlying economic mechanisms. The key findings: positive growth rate asymmetry is nearly ubiquitous in price level data (but is not caused by money growth asymmetry); and the pattern of asymmetries varies dramatically across countries (making widespread reliance on US data to study fluctuations worrisome).triples test; nonlinear time series; inflation; business cycles

A simplified treatment of SiB's land surface albedo parameterization

The earlier presented surface albedo parameterization is simplified by assuming that the reflectance of direct solar radiation is a simple function of solar zenith angle. The function chosen contains three parameters that vary with vegetation type, greenness, and leaf area index. Tables of parameter values are presented. Using these tables, SiB's (Simple Biosphere model) absorbances of direct solar radiation can be reproduced with an average relative error of less than 0.5 percent. Finally, the direct reflectance function is integrated over zenith angle to produce an equation for the surface reflectance of diffuse radiation

Racial Profiling and Policing in North Carolina: Reality or Rhetoric?

This thesis examined police practices of the North Carolina Highway Patrol concerning the occurrence of racial profiling. The sample data consisted of motorists stopped in North Carolina by the Highway Patrol between January 1, 2000 and July 31, 2000 (N = 332, 861). The findings suggested that race was a likely factor in pretextual stops. The results also indicate that racial profiling was occurring more in the western region than the eastern region of North Carolina. Theoretical reasons are offered in support of these findings

An Analysis of the Green Knoll Salt Dome, located in the Southeast Green Canyon, Deep Water Gulf of Mexico

The western portion of the Mississippi/Atwater fold belt in the Gulf of Mexico contains what is known as The Green Knoll Salt Dome. The creation and growth of this salt diapir is punctuated by salt deposition, salt migration, sediment loading, and is linked to the “Frampton” fold belt. An indicator of these growth periods is exhibited in an angular unconformity (halo-kinetic sequence boundary) that flanks the diapir. This unconformity developed during the Miocene-Pliocene chronostratigraphic boundary. The “Redwood” (Green Canyon 1001) prospect was drilled after the discovery of middle Miocene sands containing hydrocarbons in the Mad Dog field (GC 826). The objective Miocene sand in the “Redwood” borehole was thin due to this angular unconformity causing the sand to pinch out. An evaluation of seismic and well log data provided by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management indicated that the unconformity might not provide the seal needed to trap hydrocarbons on the flank of the salt dome, or it did not allow enough sand to be deposited. A palinspastic structural restoration of the Green Knoll Salt Dome revealed that the growth of the Green Knoll and Frampton are connected. It is still possible that if a well were to be drilled further down dip from where The “Redwood” prospect was drilled, one may find a potential hydrocarbon reservoir