Measuring the effect of opportunity cost of time on participation in sports and exercise

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: There is limited research on the association between opportunity cost of time and sports and exercise due to lack of data on opportunity cost of time. Using a sample of 14142 adults from Health Survey for England (2006), we develop and test a composite index of op-portunity cost of time (to address the current issues with data constraint on opportunity cost of time) in order to explore the relationship between opportunity cost of time and sports participation. Methods: Probit regression models are fitted adjusting for a range of covariates. Opportunity cost of time is measured with two proxy measures: a) composite index (consisting of various indicators of wage earnings) con-structed using principal component analysis; and b) education and employment, approach in the literature. We estimate the relative impact of the composite index compared with current proxy measures, on prediction of sports participation. Findings: Findings suggest that higher opportunity cost of time is associated with increased likelihood of sports participation, regardless of the time intensity of activity or the measure of opportunity cost of time used. The relative impacts of the two proxy measures are comparable. Sports and exercise was found to be positively correlated with income. Another important positive correlate of sports and exercise is participation in voluntary activity. The research and policy implications of our findings are discussed

Physical activity in England: Who is meeting the recommended level of participation through sports and exercise?

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2012 Anokye et al.Background: Little is known about the correlates of meeting recommended levels of participation in physical activity (PA) and how this understanding informs public health policies on behaviour change. Objective: To analyse who meets the recommended level of participation in PA in males and females separately by applying ‘process’ modelling frameworks (single vs. sequential 2-step process). Methods: Using the Health Survey for England 2006, (n = 14 142; ≥16 years), gender-specific regression models were estimated using bivariate probit with selectivity correction and single probit models. A ‘sequential, 2-step process’ modelled participation and meeting the recommended level separately, whereas the ‘single process’ considered both participation and level together. Results: In females, meeting the recommended level was associated with degree holders [Marginal effect (ME) = 0.013] and age (ME = −0.001), whereas in males, age was a significant correlate (ME = −0.003 to −0.004). The order of importance of correlates was similar across genders, with ethnicity being the most important correlate in both males (ME = −0.060) and females (ME = −0.133). In females, the ‘sequential, 2-step process’ performed better (ρ = −0.364, P < 0.001) than that in males (ρ = 0.154). Conclusion: The degree to which people undertake the recommended level of PA through vigorous activity varies between males and females, and the process that best predicts such decisions, i.e. whether it is a sequential, 2-step process or a single-step choice, is also different for males and females. Understanding this should help to identify subgroups that are less likely to meet the recommended level of PA (and hence more likely to benefit from any PA promotion intervention).This study was funded by the Department of Health’s Policy Research Programme

How much improvement in mental health can be expected when people stop smoking? Findings from a national survey

Background and aims: There is evidence that mental health improves when smokers stop. This study aimed to assess in a nationally representative sample how far anxiety and depression in long-term ex-smokers can be expected eventually to reach levels found in those who have never smoked. Methods: Data from the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) were used. The STS involves monthly household surveys of representative samples of the adult population of England. Anxiety and depression were compared using an item from the EQ5-D in respondents aged 40+ years where were either current smokers, never smokers, or had stopped for at least a year, adjusting statistically for age, gender and social grade. Results: The prevalence of anxiety or depression was 10.0% (95% CI 9.1-10.9) in never smokers, 18.3% (95% CI 16.0-20.6) in current smokers, and 11.3% (95% CI 9.6-13.0) in long-term ex-smokers. After adjusting for age, sex and social grade, long-term ex-smokers were similar to never smokers (OR=1.15, 95% CI=0.94-1.41). Current smokers had higher prevalence than never smokers (OR=1.69, 95% CI=1.39-2.04) and ex-smokers (OR=1.47, 95% CI=1.15-1.86). Conclusions: Prevalence of anxiety and depression in long-term ex-smokers appears to be similar to what is found in never smokers

The family drug & alcohol court (FDAC) evaluation project

This report presents the findings from the evaluation of the first pilot Family Drug and Alcohol Court (FDAC) in Britain. FDAC is a new approach to care proceedings, in cases where parental substance misuse is a key element in the local authority decision to bring proceedings. It is being piloted at the Inner London Family Proceedings Court in Wells Street. Initially the pilot was to run for three years, to the end of December 2010, but is now to continue until March 2012. The work is co-funded by the Department for Education (formerly the Department for Children, Schools and Families), the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the three pilot authorities (Camden, Islington and Westminster). The evaluation was conducted by a research team at Brunel University, with funding from the Nuffield Foundation and the Home Office. FDAC is a specialist court for a problem that is anything but special. Its potential to help break the inter-generational cycle of harm associated with parental substance misuse goes straight to the heart of public policy and professional practice. Parental substance misuse is a formidable social problem and a key factor in around a third of long-term cases in children’s services in some areas. It is a major risk factor for child maltreatment, family separation and offending in adults, and for poor educational performance and substance misuse by children and young people. The parents’ many difficulties create serious problems for their children and place major demands on health, welfare and criminal justice services. For these reasons, parental substance misuse is a cross-cutting government agenda. FDAC is distinctive because it is a court-based family intervention which aims to improve children’s outcomes by addressing the entrenched difficulties of their parents. It has been adapted to English law and practice from a model of family treatment drug courts that is used widely in the USA and is showing promising results with a higher number of cases where parents and children were able to remain together safely, and with swifter alternative placement decisions for children if parents were unable to address their substance misuse successfully. The catalysts for the FDAC pilot were the encouraging evidence from the USA and concerns about the response to parental substance misuse through ordinary care proceedings in England: poor coordination of adult and children’s services; late interventions to protect children; delays in reaching decisions in court; and soaring costs of proceedings, linked to the cost of expert evidence.The work is co-funded by the Department for Education (formerly the Department for Children, Schools and Families), the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the three pilot authorities (Camden, Islington and Westminster).1 The evaluation was conducted by a research team at Brunel University, with funding from the Nuffield Foundation and the Home Office

Limits on the HI content of the dwarf galaxy Hydra II

Sensitive 21cm HI observations have been made with the Green Bank Telescope toward the newly-discovered Local Group dwarf galaxy Hydra II, which may lie within the leading arm of the Magellanic Stream. No neutral hydrogen was detected. Our 5-sigma limit of MHI < 210 solar masses for a 15 km/s linewidth gives a gas-to-luminosity ratio MHI/L_V < 2.6 x 10^{-2} Mo / Lo. The limits on HI mass and MHI/L_V are typical of dwarf galaxies found within a few hundred kpc of the Milky Way. Whatever the origin of Hydra II, its neutral gas properties are not unusual.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1&ndash;3 months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia

Skilful forecasts of high streamflows a month or more in advance are likely to be of considerable benefit to emergency services and the broader community. This is particularly true for mesoscale catchments (< 2000 km²) with little or no seasonal snowmelt, where real-time warning systems are only able to give short notice of impending floods. In this study, we generate forecasts of high streamflows for the coming 1-month and coming 3-month periods using large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate indices and catchment wetness as predictors. Forecasts are generated with a combination of Bayesian joint probability modelling and Bayesian model averaging. High streamflows are defined as maximum single-day streamflows and maximum 5-day streamflows that occur during each 1-month or 3-month forecast period. Skill is clearly evident in the 1-month forecasts of high streamflows. Surprisingly, in several catchments positive skill is also evident in forecasts of large threshold events (exceedance probabilities of 25%) over the next month. Little skill is evident in forecasts of high streamflows for the 3-month period. We show that including lagged climate indices as predictors adds little skill to the forecasts, and thus catchment wetness is by far the most important predictor. Accordingly, we recommend that forecasts may be improved by using accurate estimates of catchment wetness

Preventing disease and saving resources:the potential contribution of increasing breastfeeding rates in the UK

Two challenges stand out as we contemplate the future of health services in the United Kingdom. The first is the state of the public finances and therefore the pressure in real terms on health services funding. The second is the recurring and vexing problem of health inequalities. The state of health inequalities in Britain has been commented on by many, but we have seen precious little real change in the disproportionate burden of early death and illness among the most disadvantaged and indeed across the whole health gradient in recent years.This work was funded by UNICEF UK