The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean

The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacific Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) forecast program is introduced. EPANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motion, and date differences between them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecasted, and composited into a single forecast track. Verification of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 hours are shown for randomly selected historical tropical cyclones as initiated from best-track positions statistically adjusted to simulate position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts general from 1973 operational tropical cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set of objective persistence an MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective official forecasts for the 24-, 48- and 72-hour intervals. The accuracy of the 1973 EPANALOG is shown to generally exceed that of the existent techniques for all forecast intervals tested.Naval Air Systems Command, Navy Departmenthttp://archive.org/details/navysanalogschem62jar

Biophysical Regulation of Chromatin Architecture Instills a Mechanical Memory in Mesenchymal Stem Cells

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material.This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (R01 AR056624, R01 EB02425, T32 AR007132, and P30 AR050950) and a Marie Curie Intra European Fellowship (GENOMICDIFF, grant No. 301509). Additional support was provided by a Montague Research Award from the Perelman School of Medicine and a University of Pennsylvania University Research Foundation Award

SAVVY® (C31G) Gel for Prevention of HIV infection in Women: A Phase 3, Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial in Ghana

The objective of this trial was to determine the effectiveness of 1.0% C31G (SAVVY) in preventing male-to-female vaginal transmission of HIV infection among women at high risk.This was a Phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Participants made up to 12 monthly visits for HIV testing, adverse event reporting, and study product supply. The study was conducted between March 2004 and February 2006 in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana. We enrolled 2142 HIV-negative women at high risk of HIV infection, and randomized them to SAVVY or placebo gel. Main outcome measures were the incidence of HIV-1 and HIV-2 infection as determined by detection of HIV antibodies from oral mucosal transudate specimens and adverse events. We accrued 790 person-years of follow-up in the SAVVY group and 772 person-years in the placebo group. No clinically significant differences in the overall frequency of adverse events, abnormal pelvic examination findings, or abnormal laboratory results were seen between treatment groups. However, more participants in the SAVVY group reported reproductive tract adverse events than in the placebo group (13.0% versus 9.4%). Seventeen HIV seroconversions occurred; eight in participants randomized to SAVVY and nine in participants receiving placebo. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative probability of HIV infection through 12 months were 0.010 in the SAVVY group and 0.011 in the placebo group (p = 0.731), with a hazard ratio (SAVVY versus placebo) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.33, 2.27). Because of a lower-than-expected HIV incidence, we were unable to achieve the required number of HIV infections (66) to obtain the desired study power.SAVVY was not associated with increased adverse events overall, but was associated with higher reporting of reproductive adverse events. Our data are insufficient to conclude whether SAVVY is effective at preventing HIV infection relative to placebo.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00129532

Macro- to Microscale Strain Transfer in Fibrous Tissues is Heterogeneous and Tissue-Specific

AbstractMechanical deformation applied at the joint or tissue level is transmitted through the macroscale extracellular matrix to the microscale local matrix, where it is transduced to cells within these tissues and modulates tissue growth, maintenance, and repair. The objective of this study was to investigate how applied tissue strain is transferred through the local matrix to the cell and nucleus in meniscus, tendon, and the annulus fibrosus, as well as in stem cell-seeded scaffolds engineered to reproduce the organized microstructure of these native tissues. To carry out this study, we developed a custom confocal microscope-mounted tensile testing device and simultaneously monitored strain across multiple length scales. Results showed that mean strain was heterogeneous and significantly attenuated, but coordinated, at the local matrix level in native tissues (35–70% strain attenuation). Conversely, freshly seeded scaffolds exhibited very direct and uniform strain transfer from the tissue to the local matrix level (15–25% strain attenuation). In addition, strain transfer from local matrix to cells and nuclei was dependent on fiber orientation and tissue type. Histological analysis suggested that different domains exist within these fibrous tissues, with most of the tissue being fibrous, characterized by an aligned collagen structure and elongated cells, and other regions being proteoglycan (PG)-rich, characterized by a dense accumulation of PGs and rounder cells. In meniscus, the observed heterogeneity in strain transfer correlated strongly with cellular morphology, where rounder cells located in PG-rich microdomains were shielded from deformation, while elongated cells in fibrous microdomains deformed readily. Collectively, these findings suggest that different tissues utilize distinct strain-attenuating mechanisms according to their unique structure and cellular phenotype, and these differences likely alter the local biologic response of such tissues and constructs in response to mechanical perturbation

SAVVY Vaginal Gel (C31G) for Prevention of HIV Infection: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Nigeria

The objective of this trial was to determine the effectiveness of 1.0% C31G (SAVVY) in preventing male-to-female vaginal transmission of HIV infection among women at high risk.This was a Phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Participants made up to 12 monthly follow-up visits for HIV testing, adverse event reporting, and study product supply. The study was conducted between September 2004 and December 2006 in Lagos and Ibadan, Nigeria, where we enrolled 2153 HIV-negative women at high risk of HIV infection. Participants were randomized 1 ratio 1 to SAVVY or placebo. The effectiveness endpoint was incidence of HIV infection as indicated by detection of HIV antibodies in oral mucosal transudate (rapid test) or blood (ELISA), and confirmed by Western blot or PCR testing. We observed 33 seroconversions (21 in the SAVVY group, 12 in the placebo group). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative probability of HIV infection at 12 months were 0.028 in the SAVVY group and 0.015 in the placebo group (2-sided p-value for the log-rank test of treatment effect 0.121). The point estimate of the hazard ratio was 1.7 for SAVVY versus placebo (95% confidence interval 0.9, 3.5). Because of lower-than-expected HIV incidence, we did not observe the required number of HIV infections (66) for adequate power to detect an effect of SAVVY. Follow-up frequencies of adverse events, reproductive tract adverse events, abnormal pelvic examination findings, chlamydial infections and vaginal infections were similar in the study arms. No serious adverse event was attributable to SAVVY use.SAVVY did not reduce the incidence of HIV infection. Although the hazard ratio was higher in the SAVVY than the placebo group, we cannot conclude that there was a harmful treatment effect of SAVVY

A multi-compartment single and multiple dose pharmacokinetic comparison of rectally applied tenofovir 1% gel and oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate

This Phase 1, randomized, two-site (United States), double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled 18 sexually abstinent men and women. All received a single 300-mg dose of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and were then randomized 2:1 to receive single and then seven daily rectal exposures of vaginally-formulated tenofovir (TFV) 1% gel or a hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC) placebo gel. Blood, colonic biopsies and rectal and vaginal mucosal fluids were collected after the single oral TDF, the single topical TFV gel dose, and after 7 days of topical TFV gel dosing for extracellular analysis of TFV and intracellular analysis of the active metabolite tenofovir diphosphate (TFVdp) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and isolated mucosal mononuclear cells (MMC), including CD4+ and CD4- cell subsets. With a single rectal dose, TFV plasma concentrations were 24-33 fold lower and half-life was 5 h shorter compared to a single oral dose (p = 0.02). TFVdp concentrations were also undetectable in PBMCs with rectal dosing. Rectal tissue exposure to both TFV and TFVdp was 2 to 4-log10 higher after a single rectal dose compared to a single oral dose, and after 7 daily doses, TFVdp accumulated 4.5 fold in tissue. TFVdp in rectal tissue homogenate was predictive (residual standard error, RSE = 0.47) of tissue MMC intracellular TFVdp concentration, with the CD4+ cells having a 2-fold higher TFVdp concentration than CD4- cells. TFV concentrations from rectal sponges was a modest surrogate indicator for both rectal tissue TFV and TFVdp (RSE = 0.67, 0.66, respectively) and plasma TFV (RSE = 0.38). TFV penetrates into the vaginal cavity after oral and rectal dosing, with rectal dosing leading to higher vaginal TFV concentrations (p<0.01)

Correlation between compartmental tenofovir concentrations and an ex vivo rectal biopsy model of tissue infectibility in the RMP-02/MTN-006 phase 1 study

Design: Phase 1, randomized, two-site (US), double-blind, placebo-controlled study of sexually-abstinent males and females

Age and environment affect constitutive immune function in Red Knots (Calidris canutus)

We studied subspecies, age and environmental effects on constitutive immune function (natural antibody and complement titres, haptoglobin activity and leukocyte concentrations) in Red Knots (Calidris canutus). We compared C. c. islandica and C. c. canutus in the Wadden Sea and found no difference in immune function between subspecies. However, C. c. canutus on their wintering grounds in Banc d’Arguin had higher natural antibody and lower complement levels than C. c. canutus or C. c. islandica in the Wadden Sea. This suggests that immune function is determined more by the surrounding environment than by subspecies. We also compared age classes in the Wadden Sea and found that first year birds had significantly lower natural antibody levels than adults, but that second year birds no longer differed from adults. Finally, we examined the interaction of age and environment in Banc d’Arguin. We found that first year birds (but not adults) in a low quality habitat had higher leukocyte concentrations than first year birds or adults in a high quality habitat. Differences in available resources and defence needs between environments, and differences among individuals differentially distributed between sites, are likely important contributors to the variation in immune function we report. Future studies, which examine these factors on wild birds, will be important for our understanding of how animals function in their natural environment.

A phase 1/2, open-label, parallel group study to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics of DARE-HRT1 (80 μg estradiol/4 mg progesterone and 160 μg estradiol/8 mg progesterone intravaginal rings) over 12 weeks in healthy postmenopausal women

OnlinePublObjectives: Primary objectives were to evaluate the safety and systemic pharmacokinetics (PK) of DARE-HRT1, an intravaginal ring (IVR), which releases 17β2-Estradiol (E2) with progesterone (P4) for 28 days in healthy postmenopausal women. Methods: This was a randomized, open-label, 2-arm, parallel group study in 21 healthy postmenopausal women with an intact uterus. Women were randomized (1:1) to either DARE-HRT1 IVR1 (E2 80 μg/d with P4 4 mg/d) or DARE-HRT1 IVR2 (E2 160 μg/d with P4 8 mg/d). They used the IVR for three 28-day cycles, inserting a new IVR monthly. Safety was measured by treatment emergent adverse events and changes in systemic laboratories and the endometrial bilayer width. Baseline adjusted plasma PK of E2, P4, and estrone (E1) was described. Results: Both DARE-HRT1 IVR were safe. All treatment emergent adverse events were mild or moderate and were distributed similarly among IVR1 versus IVR2 users. Month 3 median maximum plasma (Cmax) P4 concentrations were 2.81 and 3.51 ng/mL and Cmax E2 was 42.95 and 77.27 pg/mL for IVR1 and IVR2 groups, respectively. Month 3 median steady state (Css) plasma P4 concentrations were 1.19 and 1.89 ng/mL, and Css E2 was 20.73 and 38.16 pg/mL for IVR1 and IVR2 users, respectively. Conclusions: Both DARE-HRT1 IVRs were safe and released E2 in systemic concentrations, which were in the low, normal premenopausal range. Systemic P4 concentrations predict endometrial protection. Data from this study support further development of DARE-HRT1 for the treatment of menopausal symptoms.Andrea Thurman, Louise Hull, Bronwyn Stuckey, Jessica Hatheway, Nadene Zack, Christine Mauck and David Frien