The supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process

We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.Comment: 14 page

Positive recurrence of reflecting Brownian motion in three dimensions

Consider a semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion (SRBM) $Z$ whose state space is the $d$-dimensional nonnegative orthant. The data for such a process are a drift vector $\theta$, a nonsingular $d\times d$ covariance matrix $\Sigma$, and a $d\times d$ reflection matrix $R$ that specifies the boundary behavior of $Z$. We say that $Z$ is positive recurrent, or stable, if the expected time to hit an arbitrary open neighborhood of the origin is finite for every starting state. In dimension $d=2$, necessary and sufficient conditions for stability are known, but fundamentally new phenomena arise in higher dimensions. Building on prior work by El Kharroubi, Ben Tahar and Yaacoubi [Stochastics Stochastics Rep. 68 (2000) 229--253, Math. Methods Oper. Res. 56 (2002) 243--258], we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for stability of SRBMs in three dimensions; to verify or refute these conditions is a simple computational task. As a byproduct, we find that the fluid-based criterion of Dupuis and Williams [Ann. Probab. 22 (1994) 680--702] is not only sufficient but also necessary for stability of SRBMs in three dimensions. That is, an SRBM in three dimensions is positive recurrent if and only if every path of the associated fluid model is attracted to the origin. The problem of recurrence classification for SRBMs in four and higher dimensions remains open.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP631 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Spectrum and Duration of Delayed MeV-GeV Emission of Gamma-Ray Bursts in Cosmic Background Radiation Fields

We generally analyze prompt high-energy emission above a few hundreds of GeV due to synchrotron self-Compton scattering in internal shocks. However, such photons cannot be detected because they may collide with cosmic infrared background photons, leading to electron/positron pair production. Inverse-Compton scattering of the resulting electron/positron pairs off cosmic microwave background photons will produce delayed MeV-GeV emission, which may be much stronger than a typical high-energy afterglow in the external shock model. We expand on the Cheng & Cheng model by deriving the emission spectrum and duration in the standard fireball shock model. A typical duration of the emission is ~ 10^3 seconds, and the time-integrated scattered photon spectrum is nu^{-(p+6)/4}, where p is the index of the electron energy distribution behind internal shocks. This is slightly harder than the synchrotron photon spectrum, nu^{-(p+2)/2}. The lower energy property of the scattered photon spectrum is dependent on the spectral energy distribution of the cosmic infrared background radiation. Therefore, future observations on such delayed MeV-GeV emission and the higher-energy spectral cutoff by the Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) would provide a probe of the cosmic infrared background radiation.Comment: 5 pages, accepted for publication in Ap

Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows from Realistic Fireballs

A GRB afterglow has been commonly thought to be due to continuous deceleration of a postburst fireball. Many analytical models have made simplifications for deceleration dynamics of the fireball and its radiation property, although they are successful at explaining the overall features of the observed afterglows. We here propose a model for a GRB afterglow in which the evolution of a postburst fireball is in an intermediate case between the adiabatic and highly radiative expansion. In our model, the afterglow is both due to the contribution of the adiabatic electrons behind the external blastwave of the fireball and due to the contribution of the radiative electrons. In addition, this model can describe evolution of the fireball from the extremely relativistic phase to the non-relativistic phase. Our calculations show that the fireball will go to the adiabatic expansion phase after about a day if the accelerated electrons are assumed to occupy the total internal energy. In all cases considered, the fireball will go to the mildly relativistic phase about $10^4$ seconds later, and to the non-relativistic phase after several days. These results imply that the relativistic adiabatic model cannot describe the deceleration dynamics of the several-days-later fireball. The comparison of the calculated light curves with the observed results at late times may imply the presence of impulsive events or energy injection with much longer durations.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, plain latex file, submitted to Ap

Comparison of predictive scores of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis in a single centre

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

On data skewness, stragglers, and MapReduce progress indicators

We tackle the problem of predicting the performance of MapReduce applications, designing accurate progress indicators that keep programmers informed on the percentage of completed computation time during the execution of a job. Through extensive experiments, we show that state-of-the-art progress indicators (including the one provided by Hadoop) can be seriously harmed by data skewness, load unbalancing, and straggling tasks. This is mainly due to their implicit assumption that the running time depends linearly on the input size. We thus design a novel profile-guided progress indicator, called NearestFit, that operates without the linear hypothesis assumption and exploits a careful combination of nearest neighbor regression and statistical curve fitting techniques. Our theoretical progress model requires fine-grained profile data, that can be very difficult to manage in practice. To overcome this issue, we resort to computing accurate approximations for some of the quantities used in our model through space- and time-efficient data streaming algorithms. We implemented NearestFit on top of Hadoop 2.6.0. An extensive empirical assessment over the Amazon EC2 platform on a variety of real-world benchmarks shows that NearestFit is practical w.r.t. space and time overheads and that its accuracy is generally very good, even in scenarios where competitors incur non-negligible errors and wide prediction fluctuations. Overall, NearestFit significantly improves the current state-of-art on progress analysis for MapReduce

Two-Electron Linear Intersubband Light Absorption in a Biased Quantum Well

We point out a novel manifestation of many-body correlations in the linear optical response of electrons confined in a quantum well. Namely, we demonstrate that along with conventional absorption peak at frequency close to intersubband energy, there exists an additional peak at double frequency. This new peak is solely due to electron-electron interactions, and can be understood as excitation of two electrons by a single photon. The actual peak lineshape is comprised of a sharp feature, due to excitation of pairs of intersubband plasmons, on top of a broader band due to absorption by two single-particle excitations. The two-plasmon contribution allows to infer intersubband plasmon dispersion from linear absorption experiments.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures; published versio

Computer-aided Melody Note Transcription Using the Tony Software: Accuracy and Efficiency

accepteddate-added: 2015-05-24 19:18:46 +0000 date-modified: 2017-12-28 10:36:36 +0000 keywords: Tony, melody, note, transcription, open source software bdsk-url-1: https://code.soundsoftware.ac.uk/attachments/download/1423/tony-paper_preprint.pdfdate-added: 2015-05-24 19:18:46 +0000 date-modified: 2017-12-28 10:36:36 +0000 keywords: Tony, melody, note, transcription, open source software bdsk-url-1: https://code.soundsoftware.ac.uk/attachments/download/1423/tony-paper_preprint.pdfWe present Tony, a software tool for the interactive an- notation of melodies from monophonic audio recordings, and evaluate its usability and the accuracy of its note extraction method. The scientific study of acoustic performances of melodies, whether sung or played, requires the accurate transcription of notes and pitches. To achieve the desired transcription accuracy for a particular application, researchers manually correct results obtained by automatic methods. Tony is an interactive tool directly aimed at making this correction task efficient. It provides (a) state-of-the art algorithms for pitch and note estimation, (b) visual and auditory feedback for easy error-spotting, (c) an intelligent graphical user interface through which the user can rapidly correct estimation errors, (d) extensive export functions enabling further processing in other applications. We show that Tony’s built in automatic note transcription method compares favourably with existing tools. We report how long it takes to annotate recordings on a set of 96 solo vocal recordings and study the effect of piece, the number of edits made and the annotator’s increasing mastery of the software. Tony is Open Source software, with source code and compiled binaries for Windows, Mac OS X and Linux available from https://code.soundsoftware.ac.uk/projects/tony/

The Afterglow of GRB 990123 and a Dense Medium

Recent observations show that the temporal decay of the R-band afterglow from GRB 990123 steepened about 2.5 days after the burst. We here propose a possible explanation for such a steepening: a shock expanding in a dense medium has undergone the transition from a relativistic phase to a nonrelativistic phase. We find that this model is consistent with the observations if the medium density is about $3\times 10^6 {\rm cm}^{-3}$. By fitting our model to the observed optical and X-ray afterglow quantitatively, we further infer the electron and magnetic energy fractions of the shocked medium and find these two parameters are about 0.1 and $2\times 10^{-8}$ respectively. The former parameter is near the equipartition value while the latter is about six orders of magnitude smaller than inferred from the GRB 970508 afterglow. We also discuss possibilities that the dense medium can be produced.Comment: 12 pages, LaTeX, published in ApJ Letter