Statistics for evidence-based policy in the Church of England : predicting diocesan performance

This study computed the percentage changes recorded on six separate performance indicators between 1991 and 2000 in order to calculate the effect of the Decade of Evangelism on the mainland dioceses of the Church of England. The performance indicators were usual Sunday attendance, Easter Sunday communicants, Christmas communicants, electoral roll membership, total baptism figures, and total confirmation figures. Statistical procedures (including cluster analysis, analysis of variance, canonical correlation analysis, and multiple regression) were then employed in order to identify from the range of variables routinely collected by the central church authorities policy-related factors associated with church growth (or at least reduced decline) over this period. These analyses identified four areas, concerned with expanding non-stipendiary ministry, with encouraging the ordination of women, with resisting church closure, and with promoting a financial policy that includes planned subscriptions and charitable giving. These conclusions are offered as an applied example of using statistics as a tool for mission and as the basis for evidence-based policy

Long-term Properties of Accretion Disks in X-ray Binaries: II. Stability of Radiation-Driven Warping

A significant number of X-ray binaries are now known to exhibit long-term ``superorbital'' periodicities on timescales of $\sim$ 10 - 100 days. Several physical mechanisms have been proposed that give rise to such periodicities, in particular warping and/or precession of the accretion disk. Recent theoretical work predicts the stability to disk warping of X-ray binaries as a function of the mass ratio, binary radius, viscosity and accretion efficiency, and here we examine the constraints that can be placed on such models by current observations. In paper I we used a dynamic power spectrum (DPS) analysis of long-term X-ray datasets (CGRO, RXTE), focusing on the remarkable, smooth variations in the superorbital period exhibited by SMC X-1. Here we use a similar DPS analysis to investigate the stability of the superorbital periodicities in the neutron star X-ray binaries Cyg X-2, LMC X-4 and Her X-1, and thereby confront stability predictions with observation. We find that the period and nature of superorbital variations in these sources is consistent with the predictions of warping theory. We also use a dynamic lightcurve analysis to examine the behaviour of Her X-1 as it enters and leaves the 1999 Anomalous Low State (ALS). This reveals a significant phase shift some 15 cycles before the ALS, which indicates a change in the disk structure or profile leading into the ALS.Comment: 12 pages, 14 figures, Re-submitted to MNRAS after referee's comment

Optical studies of two LMC X-ray transients : RX J0544.1-7100 and RX J0520.5-6932

We report observations which confirm the identities of the optical counterpart to the transient sources RX J0544.1-7100 and RX J0520.5-6932. The counterparts are suggested to be a B-type stars. Optical data from the observations carried out at ESO and SAAO, together with results from the OGLE data base, are presented. In addition, X-ray data from the RXTE all-sky monitor are investigated for long term periodicities. A strong suggestion for a binary period of 24.4d is seen in RX J0520.5-6932 from the OGLE data.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figure

A laboratory study of the use of lime stabilisation on contaminated and uncontaminated clays

This study presents the results of experimental research carried out to investigate the effects of lime treatment on naturally deposited kaolinite clay, containing quartz, and a contaminated clay, containing calcium sulfide and heavy metals, known as galligu. The efficacy of lime stabilisation may be evaluated using unconfined compressive strength (U CS) tests which were carried out for different lime contents (0%, 5% and 10% of the sample mass) and various curing times (7, 28 and 90 days). Chemical and mineralogical changes of the two clays were established using X - R ay diffraction (XRD) and X - Ray flu orescence (XRF) in order to establish their effect on the geotechnical properties of the stabilised materials. Lime stabilised clay demonstrated improved geotechnical characteristics including a drop in moisture content (the ratio of the mass of water to the mass of solids in soil), increase in bulk density (the weight of the soil in a given volume, in this case 1m 3 ) and decrease in air voids (pockets of air between aggregate particles in the soil). However the net geotechnical improvements in the natural clay were demonstrably less than the galligu, principally in terms of strength. Galligu as recovered has a high moisture content and the alkaline conditions were able to supply sufficient moisture and the optimum chemical environment for effective cation exchanges and pozzolanic reactions. For the natural clay the lime addition caused an increase in the optimum moisture needed for effective compaction, which was higher than the natural moisture content of the clay

Right method, right price: the economic value and associated risks of experimentation

Objectives To consider the important contribution to crime reduction policy and practice made by research in experimental criminology; possible future research priorities and their methodological implications bearing in mind the cost and associated risks of research. Method Discussion of the concepts necessary to inform policy and practice leads to a consideration of the appropriate methodology for primary research. On the basis of this discussion, three case studies are considered as exemplars of the argument being developed. Results The authors argue that experimental criminology has been important in demonstrating the impact of certain types of place-based or people-based interventions. Nevertheless, the promised economic benefits are often predicated on interventions being proven effective in a particular geography or environment, on pre-existing levels of investment in the criminal justice system and on the presumed mechanism through which the initiative achieves its effect. As such, these ‘confounding factors’ need to be well researched and reported at the level of an individual experiment. Conclusions Experimental criminology has made an important contribution to policy and practice, but could increase its relevance and impact by adopting evaluation methods which expose the risks of getting the wrong answer and demonstrate the extent to which risks, and therefore costs, might be reduced through strong study design and reporting

Monitoring and Discovering X-ray Pulsars in the Small Magellanic Cloud

Regular monitoring of the SMC with RXTE has revealed a huge number of X-ray pulsars. Together with discoveries from other satellites at least 45 SMC pulsars are now known. One of these sources, a pulsar with a period of approximately 7.8 seconds, was first detected in early 2002 and since discovery it has been found to be in outburst nine times. The outburst pattern clearly shows a period of 45.1 +/- 0.4 d which is thought to be the orbital period of this system. Candidate outburst periods have also been obtained for nine other pulsars and continued monitoring will enable us to confirm these. This large number of pulsars, all located at approximately the same distance, enables a wealth of comparative studies. In addition, the large number of pulsars found (which vastly exceeds the number expected simply by scaling the relative mass of the SMC and the Galaxy) reveals the recent star formation history of the SMC which has been influenced by encounters with both the LMC and the Galaxy.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, AIP conference proceedings format. Contribution to "X-ray Timing 2003: Rossi and Beyond." meeting held in Cambridge, MA, November, 200