Improving the accuracy and utility of harmful algal bloom forecasting systems

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Geological Society for the Micropalaeontological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Biological and Geological Perspectives of Dinoflagellates, edited by Jane Lewis, F. Marret, L.Bradley, :141-147. London: Geological Society for the Micropalaeontological Society, 2013. ISBN: 9781862393684.One of the goals of harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to develop predictive capabilities for blooms. Major steps have been made towards this goal, including the development of physical-biological models of HAB species that simulate bloom dynamics in specific regions. In the Gulf of Maine region of the northeastern U.S., models have been developed that have considerable skill in simulating blooms of Alexandrium fundyense, the causative organism for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) outbreaks in the region. This model is now being used for both short-term and long-term forecasts. This paper describes several ongoing activities that will improve the accuracy and usefulness of the model and forecasts. These include efforts to streamline or minimize the sampling and analysis requirements of annual A. fundyense cyst surveys, efforts to quantitatively describe or characterize the severity of predicted outbreaks, and plans to obtain real-time data on Alexandrium cell abundance and toxicity that can be assimilated into the models. Together, these and other activities are moving us towards an operational forecasting system for Alexandrium blooms in the region.Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE-0430724, and OCE-0911031; and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Grant 1-P50-ES012742-01, the ECOHAB Grant program through NOAA Grants NA06NOS4780245 and NA09NOS4780193, and the MERHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780025

Understanding interannual, decadal level variability in paralytic shellfish poisoning toxicity in the Gulf of Maine : the HAB Index

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 103 (2014): 264-276, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.09.018.A major goal in harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to identify mechanisms underlying interannual variability in bloom magnitude and impact. Here the focus is on variability in Alexandrium fundyense blooms and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxicity in Maine, USA, over 34 years (1978 – 2011). The Maine coastline was divided into two regions - eastern and western Maine, and within those two regions, three measures of PSP toxicity (the percent of stations showing detectable toxicity over the year, the cumulative amount of toxicity per station measured in all shellfish (mussel) samples during that year, and the duration of measurable toxicity) were examined for each year in the time series. These metrics were combined into a simple HAB Index that provides a single measure of annual toxin severity across each region. The three toxin metrics, as well as the HAB Index that integrates them, reveal significant variability in overall toxicity between individual years as well as long-term, decadal patterns or regimes. Based on different conceptual models of the system, we considered three trend formulations to characterize the long-term patterns in the Index – a three-phase (mean-shift) model, a linear two-phase model, and a pulse-decline model. The first represents a “regime shift” or multiple equilibria formulation as might occur with alternating periods of sustained high and low cyst abundance or favorable and unfavorable growth conditions, the second depicts a scenario of more gradual transitions in cyst abundance or growth conditions of vegetative cells, and the third characterizes a ”sawtooth” pattern in which upward shifts in toxicity are associated with major cyst recruitment events, followed by a gradual but continuous decline until the next pulse. The fitted models were compared using both residual sum of squares and Akaike’s Information Criterion. There were some differences between model fits, but none consistently gave a better fit than the others. This statistical underpinning can guide efforts to identify physical and/or biological mechanisms underlying the patterns revealed by the HAB Index. Although A. fundyense cyst survey data (limited to 9 years) do not span the entire interval of the shellfish toxicity records, this analysis leads us to hypothesize that major changes in the abundance of A. fundyense cysts may be a primary factor contributing to the decadal trends in shellfish toxicity in this region. The HAB Index approach taken here is simple but represents a novel and potentially useful tool for resource managers in many areas of the world subject to toxic HABs.Research support provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE- 1128041 and OCE-1314642; and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Grant 1-P50-ES021923-01, the ECOHAB Grant program through NOAA Grants NA06NOS4780245 and NA09NOS4780193, the MERHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780025, the PCMHAB Grant program through NOAA Grant NA11NOS4780023, and funding through the states of ME, NH, and MA. Funding for J.L. Martin was provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Substitutes or complements? Relationship between natural resources and physical capital–a few stylised facts

This paper considers the complementarity and substitutability of natural resources and physical capital. Unlike existing empirical research, concentrated on the estimation of the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, the author focuses on macro data and the growth theory approach. The author considers the standard economic long-run growth models with substitutability or complementarity among natural resource use and physical capital in the production process. He derives from these models empirically verifiable theoretical relationships between their rates of growth. The author also uses cross-country long-run data to obtain an empirical correlation between these growth rates and finds evidence in favour of gross complementarity between the examined factors of production on the macro level in the long ru

Sagittal jaw position in relation to body posture in adult humans – a rasterstereographic study

BACKGROUND: The correlations between the sagittal jaw position and the cranio – cervical inclination are described in literature. Only few studies focus on the sagittal jaw position and the body posture using valid and objective orthopaedic examination methods. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that patients with malocclusions reveal significant differences in body posture compared to those without (upper thoracic inclination, kyphotic angle, lordotic angle and lower lumbar inclination). METHODS: Eighty-four healthy adult patients (with a mean age = 25.6 years and ranging from 16.1 to 55.8 years) were examined with informed consent. The orthodontic examination horizontal overjet (distance between upper and lower incisors) was determined by using an orthodontic digital sliding calliper. The subjects were subdivided in respect of the overjet with the following results: 18 revealed a normal overjet (Class I), 38 had an increased overjet (Class II) and 28 had an reversed overjet (Class III). Rasterstereography was used to carry out a three – dimensional back shape analysis. This method is based on photogrammetry. A three-dimensional shape was produced by analysing the distortion of parallel horizontal white light lines projected on the patient's back, followed by mathematical modelling. On the basis of the sagittal profile the upper thoracic inclination, the thoracic angle, the lordotic angle and the pelvic inclination were determined with a reported accuracy of 2.8° and the correlations to the sagittal jaw position were calculated by means of ANOVA, Scheffé and Kruskal-Wallis procedures. RESULTS: Between the different overjet groups, no statistically significant differences or correlations regarding the analysed back shape parameters could be obtained. However, comparing males and females there were statistically significant differences in view of the parameters 'lordotic angle' and 'pelvic inclination'. CONCLUSION: No correlations between overjet and variables of the thoracic, lordotic or the pelvic inclination could be observed

Dynamics and functional diversity of the smallest phytoplankton on the Northeast US shelf

Author Posting. © National Academy of Sciences, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117(22), (2020): 12215-12221, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1918439117.Picophytoplankton are the most abundant primary producers in the ocean. Knowledge of their community dynamics is key to understanding their role in marine food webs and global biogeochemical cycles. To this end, we analyzed a 16-y time series of observations of a phytoplankton community at a nearshore site on the Northeast US Shelf. We used a size-structured population model to estimate in situ division rates for the picoeukaryote assemblage and compared the dynamics with those of the picocyanobacteria Synechococcus at the same location. We found that the picoeukaryotes divide at roughly twice the rate of the more abundant Synechococcus and are subject to greater loss rates (likely from viral lysis and zooplankton grazing). We describe the dynamics of these groups across short and long timescales and conclude that, despite their taxonomic differences, their populations respond similarly to changes in the biotic and abiotic environment. Both groups appear to be temperature limited in the spring and light limited in the fall and to experience greater mortality during the day than at night. Compared with Synechococcus, the picoeukaryotes are subject to greater top-down control and contribute more to the region’s primary productivity than their standing stocks suggest.We thank E. T. Crockford, E. E. Peacock, J. Fredericks, Z. Sandwith, the MVCO Operations Team, and divers of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution diving program. This work was supported by NSF Grants OCE-0119915 (to R.J.O. and H.M.S.) and OCE-1655686 (to M.G.N., R.J.O., A.R.S., and H.M.O.); NASA Grants NNX11AF07G (to H.M.S.) and NNX13AC98G (to H.M.S.); Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Grant GGA#934 (to H.M.S.); and Simons Foundation Grant 561126 (to H.M.S.).2020-11-1

The Elusive Rentier Rich: Piketty's Data Battles and the Power of Absent Evidence

The popularity of Thomas Piketty?s research on wealth inequality has drawn attention to a curious question: why was widening wealth inequality largely neglected by mainstream economists in recent decades? To explore and explain that neglect, I draw on the writing of the early neoclassical economist John Bates Clark, who introduced the notion of the marginal productivity of income distribution at the end of the nineteenth century. I then turn to Piketty?s Capital in order to analyze the salience of marginal productivity theories of income today. I suggest that most of the criticism and praise for Piketty?s research is focused on data that are accessible and measurable, obscuring attention to questions over whether current methods for measuring economic capital are defensible or not. My overarching aim is to explore how ?absent? data in economics as a whole help to reinforce blind spots within mainstream economic theory

WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics, "physics envy" has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases. We speculate on the origins of physics envy, and then describe an alternate perspective of economic behavior based on a new taxonomy of uncertainty. We illustrate the relevance of this taxonomy with two concrete examples: the classical harmonic oscillator with some new twists that make physics look more like economics, and a quantitative equity market-neutral strategy. We conclude by offering a new interpretation of tail events, proposing an "uncertainty checklist" with which our taxonomy can be implemented, and considering the role that quants played in the current financial crisis.Comment: v3 adds 2 reference

Marine harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the united states: history, current status and future trends

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Anderson, D. M., Fensin, E., Gobler, C. J., Hoeglund, A. E., Hubbard, K. A., Kulis, D. M., Landsberg, J. H., Lefebvre, K. A., Provoost, P., Richlen, M. L., Smith, J. L., Solow, A. R., & Trainer, V. L. Marine harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the united states: history, current status and future trends. Harmful Algae, 102, (2021): 101975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2021.101975.Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are diverse phenomena involving multiple. species and classes of algae that occupy a broad range of habitats from lakes to oceans and produce a multiplicity of toxins or bioactive compounds that impact many different resources. Here, a review of the status of this complex array of marine HAB problems in the U.S. is presented, providing historical information and trends as well as future perspectives. The study relies on thirty years (1990–2019) of data in HAEDAT - the IOC-ICES-PICES Harmful Algal Event database, but also includes many other reports. At a qualitative level, the U.S. national HAB problem is far more extensive than was the case decades ago, with more toxic species and toxins to monitor, as well as a larger range of impacted resources and areas affected. Quantitatively, no significant trend is seen for paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events over the study interval, though there is clear evidence of the expansion of the problem into new regions and the emergence of a species that produces PSTs in Florida – Pyrodinium bahamense. Amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) events have significantly increased in the U.S., with an overall pattern of frequent outbreaks on the West Coast, emerging, recurring outbreaks on the East Coast, and sporadic incidents in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the long historical record of neurotoxic shellfish toxin (NST) events, no significant trend is observed over the past 30 years. The recent emergence of diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DSTs) in the U.S. began along the Gulf Coast in 2008 and expanded to the West and East Coasts, though no significant trend through time is seen since then. Ciguatoxin (CTX) events caused by Gambierdiscus dinoflagellates have long impacted tropical and subtropical locations in the U.S., but due to a lack of monitoring programs as well as under-reporting of illnesses, data on these events are not available for time series analysis. Geographic expansion of Gambierdiscus into temperate and non-endemic areas (e.g., northern Gulf of Mexico) is apparent, and fostered by ocean warming. HAB-related marine wildlife morbidity and mortality events appear to be increasing, with statistically significant increasing trends observed in marine mammal poisonings caused by ASTs along the coast of California and NSTs in Florida. Since their first occurrence in 1985 in New York, brown tides resulting from high-density blooms of Aureococcus have spread south to Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, while those caused by Aureoumbra have spread from the Gulf Coast to the east coast of Florida. Blooms of Margalefidinium polykrikoides occurred in four locations in the U.S. from 1921–2001 but have appeared in more than 15  U.S. estuaries since then, with ocean warming implicated as a causative factor. Numerous blooms of toxic cyanobacteria have been documented in all 50  U.S. states and the transport of cyanotoxins from freshwater systems into marine coastal waters is a recently identified and potentially significant threat to public and ecosystem health. Taken together, there is a significant increasing trend in all HAB events in HAEDAT over the 30-year study interval. Part of this observed HAB expansion simply reflects a better realization of the true or historic scale of the problem, long obscured by inadequate monitoring. Other contributing factors include the dispersion of species to new areas, the discovery of new HAB poisoning syndromes or impacts, and the stimulatory effects of human activities like nutrient pollution, aquaculture expansion, and ocean warming, among others. One result of this multifaceted expansion is that many regions of the U.S. now face a daunting diversity of species and toxins, representing a significant and growing challenge to resource managers and public health officials in terms of toxins, regions, and time intervals to monitor, and necessitating new approaches to monitoring and management. Mobilization of funding and resources for research, monitoring and management of HABs requires accurate information on the scale and nature of the national problem. HAEDAT and other databases can be of great value in this regard but efforts are needed to expand and sustain the collection of data regionally and nationally.Support for DMA, MLR, and DMK was provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health (National Science Foundation grant OCE-1840381 and National Institutes of Health grants NIEHS‐1P01-ES028938–01) and the U.S. National Office for Harmful Algal Blooms with funding from NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) (NA14OAR4320158, NA19OAR4320074). Funding for KAL and DMA was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Competitive Research Program under award NA20NOS4780195 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. We also acknowledge support for A.H. from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management Award NA19NOS4780183, C.J.G from NOAA-MERHAB (NA19NOS4780186) and (NA16NOS4780189) for VLT Support was also received for JLS, CJG, and VLT from NOAA-NCCOS-ECOHAB under awards NA17NOS4780184 and NA19NOS4780182. This is ECOHAB publication number ECO972

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE PROCESS OF JUSTIFYING CHOICES IN A CONTROVERSIAL UNIVERSE

All in all, neither the path of the generic principle nor that of the reduction to existing principles would appear to be fully satisfactory as the basis for establishing the legitimacy of sustainable development or as a way of making sustainability a principle of legitimacy by its own. We should probably resign ourselves to seeing in this idea a composite construction, still striving towards the formation of a new "superior common principle", without this principle yet being able to be completely clarified and validated. What we have here is an example of the sort of "compromise" described by Boltanski and Thévenot (1991, p.338): "In the compromise, the participants abandon the idea of clarifying the principle of their agreement but endeavour to maintain a frame of mind aiming at the common good." If we want to consolidate the compromise developing around sustainability, it would be well advised to seek the support of tests using well-formed objects. To this end, steps should be taken to move the emphasis away from long-term and unknowable sustainability requirements and closer to secondbest criteria focused on the transitional developments and possible risks of intentional human action, the ways of managing the linking of the different temporalities in play -- as regards the biophysical phenomena, their understanding and the main worlds of legitimacy (Godard, 1992) -- and the introduction of deliberation within the present generations as to what they feel best describes their identity, those things they would like to pass on