Climatic trends, risk perceptions and coping strategies of smallholder farmers in rural Uganda

Smallholder farmers in Uganda face a wide range of agricultural production risks, with climate change and variability presenting new risks and vulnerabilities. Climate related risks such as prolonged dry seasons have become more frequent and intense with negative impacts on agricultural livelihoods and food security. This paper assesses farmers’ perceptions of climate change and variability and analyses historical trends in temperature and rainfall in two rural districts of Uganda in order to determine the major climate-related risks affecting crop and livestock production and to identify existing innovative strategies for coping with and adapting to climate-related risks, with potential for up-scaling in rural districts. The traditional coping strategies that have been developed by these communities overtime provide a foundation for designing effective adaptation strategies. Drought, disease and pest epidemics, decreasing water sources, lack of pasture, bush fires, hailstorms, changes in crop flowering and fruiting times were the major climate-related risks reported across the two districts. Farmers use a wide range of agricultural technologies and strategies to cope with climate change and climate variability. Mulching, intercropping and planting of food security crops were among the most common practices used. Other strategies included water harvesting for domestic consumption, other soil and water conservation technologies and on-farm diversification. Farmers often use a combination of these technologies and practices to enhance agricultural productivity. The average maximum temperatures increased across the two districts. Trends in average annual rainfall showed mixed results with a general decline in one district and a relatively stable trend in the other district. Perceived changes in climate included erratic rainfall onset and cessation, which were either early or late, poor seasonal distribution of rainfall and little rainfall. Farmers also reported variations in temperatures. Farmers’ perception of changing rainfall characteristics and increasing temperatures were consistent with the observed historical climatic trends from meteorological data

Testing the APSIM model with data from a phosphorus and nitrogen replenishment experiment on an oxisol in

Abstract An experiment was conducted on an Oxisol near Maseno in western Kenya, to compare the growth of maize crops to inputs of two phosphorus sources. Commercial triple superphosphate (TSP) and Minjingu phosphate rock were applied either at a once-only rate of 250 kg P ha -1 or as five annual inputs of 50 kg P ha -1 . The experiment was carried out over 10 cropping seasons between 1996 and 2000. An additional factor studied was the source of N, either as urea or tithonia biomass-N to supply 60 kg N ha -1 . Both N and P sources were applied only to the crops grown in the long rain season. The APSIM model has been tested against this data set. The effects of P treatments were large in the long rain season, but in the short rain season the inadequate supply of N greatly reduced growth and P effects. The yields of the maize crops were predicted well (r 2 = 0.88) with respect to both the P treatments (as TSP) and the N inputs (as urea). The predicted water, N and P stresses were informative in understanding the contrasting pattern of response observed in the two seasons. The simulation of this long-term experiment shows that the APSIM SoilP module is robust, in as much as it extends the testing of the model to a very different environment where there were both N and P stresses affecting plant growth, and on a very different soil type to where the concepts in the APSIM phosphorus routines were originally developed and tested. Crop production on many soils in western Kenya is limited by both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The concept of recapitalisation of soil P has focused attention on the use of rock phosphate materials rather than commercial forms of processed fertilisers, and the feasibility of raising soil P through large, one-time application rather than a gradual increase with smaller, but regular inputs . Such strategies have been evaluated in long-term experiments in western Kenya. Probert In this paper, we describe the testing of the APSIM P routines using an experiment that provides suitable data for testing some aspects of the model. The annual rainfall and soil type, especially with regards to its phosphorus sorption properties, ar

Large-scale implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions in agriculture

This paper identifies sixteen cases of large-scale actions in the agriculture and forestry sectors that have adaptation and/or mitigation outcomes, and distils lessons from the cases. The cases cover policy and strategy development (including where climate-smart objectives were not the initial aim), climate risk management through insurance, weather information services and social protection, and agricultural initiatives that have a strong link to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Key lessons learned include: - Trade-offs can be avoided, at least in the near-term and over limited spatial scale - We need cost-effective and comparable indices for measuring GHG fluxes and for monitoring adaptive capacity - Strong government support is crucial to enable large-scale successes - Upfront costs may be substantial and can be met from multiple sources - An iterative and participatory learning approach with investment in capacity strengthening is critical

Perspectives: Legislating change

About 80% of West Africans live in rural populations that mainly depend on rain-fed, cereal-based subsistence agriculture. These areas are highly vulnerable to climate variability. The increasing frequency and severity of climate extremes — primarily drought — have led to food crises in the sub-Saharan Sahel region. Although existing technologies and practices can mitigate agricultural risk, farmers need access to accurate long- and short-term weather forecasts so they can utilize these measures more effectively. One solution is localized seasonal climate forecasts for farmers. Partners from CCAFS in West Africa have recently tried such an approach in the Kaffrine district in central Senegal. To help ease the transition from traditional forecast practices, we presented the new information to farmers alongside discussions about established methods. Farmers in Kaffrine were able to develop adaptive techniques from climate information and choose a good strategy for improving yield during dry and wet seasons

Setting the agenda: Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world

New agricultural development pathways are required to meet climate change adaptation and mitigation needs in the food systems of low-income countries. A research and policy agenda is provided to indicate where innovation and new knowledge are needed. Adaptation requires identifying suitable crop varieties and livestock breeds, as well as building resilient farming and natural resources systems, institutions for famine and crop failure relief, and mechanisms for rapid learning by farmers. Mitigation requires transitioning to ‘low climate impact’ agriculture that reduces emissions while achieving food security, economic well-being and sustainability. Efficient interventions, incentives for large-scale shifts in practices, and monitoring systems are required. Integrated assessments of adaptation and mitigation are needed to better understand the synergies and trade-offs among outcomes

The Role of Agriculture in the UN Climate Talks

Agriculture, and consequently food security and livelihoods, is already being affected by climate change, according to latest science from the IPCC. The various strands of work already underway on agriculture within the UNFCCC process can be strengthened and made more coherent. A 2015 climate agreement should reference food production and provide the financial, technical and capacity building support for countries to devise ambitious actions for the agricultural sector. A new climate agreement should be consistent with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) proces

Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases

According to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, changes in the climate over the last 30 years have already reduced global agricultural production by 1 – 5 % per decade relative to a baseline without climate change. In addition, recent studies indicate that even a 2 degrees increase in global temperature will affect agricultural productivity, particularly in the tropics, and this impact will rise with increases in temperature. In this context, this Info Note presents recent evidence on the implications for crops, livestock, and fisheries production, and their associated pests and diseases in Africa

Progress on agriculture in the UN climate talks: How COP21 can ensure a food-secure future

Agriculture, and consequently food security and livelihoods, is already being affected by climate change, according to latest science from the IPCC (Porter et al. 2014). The IPCC agrees that the world needs to produce at least 50% more food than we do today in order to meet the goal of feeding a projected 9 billion people by 2050. This must be achieved in the face of climatic variability and change, growing constraints on water and land for crops and livestock, and declining wild capture fishery stocks. Although the protection of food security lies within the core objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Article 2), formal arrangements for addressing agriculture within COP21 are unlikely. CGIAR would welcome the strengthening of aspirations for food security through action on mitigation and adaptation within a new agreement. We recognise that the new climate agreement is unlikely to be prescriptive about how adaptation in agriculture is supported and how agriculture might contribute to emission cuts. These issues are addressed within countries’ INDCs and determined at national level

Nile Basin Focal Project. Synthesis report

The Nile basin experiences wide spread poverty, lack of food and land and water degradation. Because poverty is linked to access to water for crop, fish and livestock based livelihoods, improving access to water and increasing agricultural water productivity can potentially contribute substantially to poverty reduction. The major goal of the Nile Basin Focal project is to identify high potential investments that reduce poverty yet reverse trends in land and water degradation. This is done through the implementation of six interlinked work packages allowing us to examine water availability, access, use, productivity, institutions and their linkages to poverty. Important in the Nile BFP is knowledge management and the uptake of results for ultimate impact

Sustainable intensification of crop– livestock systems through manure management in eastern and western Africa: Lessons learned and emerging research opportunities

In the mixed farming systems that characterise the semi-arid zones of eastern and western Africa, low rural incomes, the high cost of fertilisers, inappropriate public policies and infrastructural constraints prevent the widespread use of inorganic fertilisers. As population pressure increases and fallow cycles are shortened, such organic sources of plant nutrients as manure, crop residues and compost remain the principal sources of nutrients for soil fertility maintenance and crop production. In this paper, the effect of manure on soil productivity and ecosystem functions and services is discussed. This is followed by highlights of the management practices required to increase manure use efficiency. We end with a discussion of emerging new research opportunities in soil fertility management to enhance crop–livestock integration. Although the application of manure alone produces a significant response, it is not a complete alternative to mineral fertilisers. In most cases the use of manure is part of an internal flow of nutrients within the farm and does not add nutrients from outside the farm. Furthermore, the quantities available are inadequate to meet nutrient demand on large areas. Research highlights have shown that efficiency is enhanced by different management practices including the timing and methods of manure application, its sources and integrated nutrient management. Research opportunities include analysing and understanding the ecosystem functions and services of manure use, the establishment of fertiliser equivalency for different manure sources, the assessment of the best ratios of organic and inorganic plant nutrient combinations, the crop–livestock trade-offs required to solve conflicting demands for feed and soil conservation and the use of legumes to enhance soil fertility and for animal feed. The establishment of decision support system guides and assessment of the economic viability of manure-based technologies in farmer-focused research are presented as powerful management tools intended to maximise output while preserving the environment in the mixed farming systems of the semi-arid zones