Do Physicians Know When Their Diagnoses Are Correct?

This study explores the alignment between physicians' confidence in their diagnoses and the “correctness” of these diagnoses, as a function of clinical experience, and whether subjects were prone to over-or underconfidence. Design : Prospective, counterbalanced experimental design. Setting : Laboratory study conducted under controlled conditions at three academic medical centers. Participants : Seventy-two senior medical students, 72 senior medical residents, and 72 faculty internists. Intervention : We created highly detailed, 2-to 4-page synopses of 36 diagnostically challenging medical cases, each with a definitive correct diagnosis. Subjects generated a differential diagnosis for each of 9 assigned cases, and indicated their level of confidence in each diagnosis. Measurements And Main Results : A differential was considered “correct” if the clinically true diagnosis was listed in that subject's hypothesis list. To assess confidence, subjects rated the likelihood that they would, at the time they generated the differential, seek assistance in reaching a diagnosis. Subjects' confidence and correctness were “mildly” aligned (Κ=.314 for all subjects, .285 for faculty, .227 for residents, and .349 for students). Residents were overconfident in 41% of cases where their confidence and correctness were not aligned, whereas faculty were overconfident in 36% of such cases and students in 25%. Conclusions : Even experienced clinicians may be unaware of the correctness of their diagnoses at the time they make them. Medical decision support systems, and other interventions designed to reduce medical errors, cannot rely exclusively on clinicians' perceptions of their needs for such support.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74850/1/j.1525-1497.2005.30145.x.pd

Decisions at the end of life: have we come of age?

Decision making is a complex process and it is particularly challenging to make decisions with, or for, patients who are near the end of their life. Some of those challenges will not be resolved - due to our human inability to foresee the future precisely and the human proclivity to change stated preferences when faced with reality. Other challenges of the decision-making process are manageable. This commentary offers a set of approaches which may lead to progress in this field

Extended self-knowledge

We aim to move the externalism and self-knowledge debate forward by exploring two novel sceptical challenges to the prospects of self-knowledge of a paradigmatic sort, both of which result from ways in which our thought content, cognitive processes and cognitive successes depend crucially on our external environments. In particular, it is shown how arguments from extended cognition (e.g., Clark A, Chalmers D. Analysis 58:7–19 (1998); Clark A. Supersizing the mind: Embodiment, action, and cognitive extension. Oxford: Oxford University Press (2008)) and situationism (e.g., Alfano M. The Philosophical Quarterly 62:223–249 (2012), Alfano M. Expanding the situationist challenge to reliabilism about inference. In Fairweather A (ed) Virtue epistemology naturalized, Springer, Dordrecht, pp 103–122 (2014); Doris JM. Noûs 32:504–530 (1998), Doris JM. Lack of character: Personality and moral behavior. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2002); Harman G. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society. 99:315–331 (1999), Harman G. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 100:223–226 (2000)) pose hitherto unexplored challenges to the prospects of self-knowledge as it is traditionally conceived. It is shown, however, that, suitably understood, these apparent challenges in fact only demonstrate two ways in which our cognitive lives can be dependent on our environment. As such, rather than undermining our prospects for attaining self-knowledge, they instead illustrate how self-knowledge can be extended and expanded

Incorporating clinical guidelines through clinician decision-making

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is generally acknowledged that a disparity between knowledge and its implementation is adversely affecting quality of care. An example commonly cited is the failure of clinicians to follow clinical guidelines. A guiding assumption of this view is that adherence should be gauged by a standard of conformance. At least some guideline developers dispute this assumption and claim that their efforts are intended to inform and assist clinical practice, not to function as standards of performance. However, their ability to assist and inform will remain limited until an alternative to the conformance criterion is proposed that gauges how evidence-based guidelines are incorporated into clinical decisions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The proposed investigation has two specific aims to identify the processes that affect decisions about incorporating clinical guidelines, and then to develop ad test a strategy that promotes the utilization of evidence-based practices. This paper focuses on the first aim. It presents the rationale, introduces the clinical paradigm of treatment-resistant schizophrenia, and discusses an exemplar of clinician non-conformance to a clinical guideline. A modification of the original study is proposed that targets psychiatric trainees and draws on a cognitively rich theory of decision-making to formulate hypotheses about how the guideline is incorporated into treatment decisions. Twenty volunteer subjects recruited from an accredited psychiatry training program will respond to sixty-four vignettes that represent a fully crossed 2 × 2 × 2 × 4 within-subjects design. The variables consist of criteria contained in the clinical guideline and other relevant factors. Subjects will also respond to a subset of eight vignettes that assesses their overall impression of the guideline. Generalization estimating equation models will be used to test the study's principal hypothesis and perform secondary analyses.</p> <p>Implications</p> <p>The original design of phase two of the proposed investigation will be changed in recognition of newly published literature on the relative effectiveness of treatments for schizophrenia. It is suggested that this literature supports the notion that guidelines serve a valuable function as decision tools, and substantiates the importance of decision-making as the means by which general principles are incorporated into clinical practice.</p

Barriers and enablers in the management of tuberculosis treatment in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease which causes about two million deaths each year. In 1993, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared TB to be a “Global Emergency” due to an increasing number of TB cases and a rise in multidrug resistant cases in the developed world. Treatment interruption was considered one of the major challenges. WHO introduced the current TB control program DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) as the tool to control the disease. To prevent further development of resistance against anti-TB drugs it was decided to observe each patient taking their daily dose of medication. The overall aim of this thesis is to explore how patients and health workers perceive and manage TB symptoms and treatment in a high-endemic and a low-endemic setting in the era of DOT(S). The data is based on fieldwork, including in-depth interviews and focus groups with TB patients and health workers, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (2001-2002) and in Oslo/Akershus, Norway (2007-2008). We found that people’s interpretation and management of TB symptoms is influenced by cultural, social and economic factors. TB was, in both contexts, associated with poverty, and subsequently with a disease that affects certain countries or certain segments of a population. TB was viewed as a severe disease in both contexts, but there was variation between individuals to what extent one considered oneself as a likely victim. In the absence of circumstantial causes, such as poverty, patients in a lowendemic setting like Norway, found it difficult to understand why they had developed the disease. There was scarce knowledge about the fact that the disease could be latent. Awareness of early symptoms, such as persistent cough, was low in both contexts. Perceptions of vulnerability, together with the presence or absence of socio-economic barriers or enablers influenced at what time patients would seek help. The study suggests that health personnel lacked awareness or misinterpreted early symptoms of TB. In Ethiopia, lay categorizations of early TB symptoms converged with diagnostic practices in parts of the professional health sector. The diagnostic process could endure for many months after patients’ first contact with the health services. Similarly, in Norway, we found that patients’ interpretations of early symptoms often were confirmed in the meeting with health personnel. The consequences were prolonged diagnostic processes. The study shows that patients’ ability to manage TB treatment is a product of dynamic processes, in which social and economic costs and other burdens interplay over time. A decision to interrupt treatment can be shaped by past struggles and accrued costs; in which seems financially, socially or emotionally unbearable at the moment of treatment interruption. The burdens related to DOT could also be significant, in patients who did not interrupt treatment. Patients in both Ethiopia and Norway experienced an authoritarian and rigid practice of DOT, which made it difficult to simultaneously attend to demands related to treatment and demands related to other areas of life. The most vulnerable patients, such as those without permanent jobs, suffered from high economic, social and emotional costs. In conclusion, health personal need more knowledge about typical and atypical symptoms of TB. In low-endemic settings doctors need to be trained to adjust their level of suspicion to the migration history of the patient. In high-endemic settings one should be aware that health personnel may understand and manage TB within a traditional perspective. Patients in both high- and low-endemic contexts need concrete information about the cause of TB, how it is transmitted, how symptoms can be manifested, how the disease can progress and how it can be cured. The study indicates that inequalities that predispose for TB may be reinforced in the patient’s interaction with the health services due to a rigid, disempowering practice of DOT. Subsequently, DOT per se may add to the chain of structural barriers that patients have to overcome to access and complete treatment. To ensure that TB patients complete treatment one must address the coexisting and interacting crises that follow a TB diagnosis. This could require TB programs to adopt a more holistic approach. Measures that secure early diagnosis may reduce some of the physical, psycho-social and economic costs patients face while undergoing treatment. Measures that empower patients to participate in their own health care may avoid disempowering and humiliating practices

Overconfidence in Labor Markets

This chapter reviews how worker overconfidence affects labor markets. Evidence from psychology and economics shows that in many situations, most people tend to overestimate their absolute skills, overplace themselves relative to others, and overestimate the precision of their knowledge. The chapter starts by reviewing evidence for overconfidence and for how overconfidence affects economic choices. Next, it reviews economic explanations for overconfidence. After that, it discusses research on the impact of worker overconfidence on labor markets where wages are determined by bargaining between workers and firms. Here, three key questions are addressed. First, how does worker overconfidence affect effort provision for a fixed compensation scheme? Second, how should firms design compensation schemes when workers are overconfident? In particular, will a compensation scheme offered to an overconfident worker have higher-or lower-powered incentives than that offered to a worker with accurate self-perception? Third, can worker overconfidence lead to a Pareto improvement? The chapter continues by reviewing research on the impact of worker overconfidence on labor markets where workers can move between firms and where neither firms nor workers have discretion over wage setting. The chapter concludes with a summary of its main findings and a discussion of avenues for future research