Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for fatigue damage progression models in composites

A Bayesian approach is presented for selecting the most probable model class among a set of damage mechanics models for fatigue damage progression in composites. Candidate models, that are first parameterized through a Global Sensitivity Analysis, are ranked based on estimated probabilities that measure the extent of agreement of their predictions with observed data. A case study is presented using multi-scale fatigue damage data from a cross-ply carbon–epoxy laminate. The results show that, for this case, the most probable model class among the competing candidates is the one that involves the simplest damage mechanics. The principle of Ockham's razor seems to hold true for the composite materials investigated here since the data-fit of more complex models is penalized, as they extract more information from the data

A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media

The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein. In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey. Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results

Plausible Petri nets as self-adaptive expert systems: A tool for infrastructure asset monitoring

This article provides a computational framework to model self-adaptive expert systems using the Petri net (PN) formalism. Self-adaptive expert systems are understood here as expert systems with the ability to autonomously learn from external inputs, like monitoring data. To this end, the Bayesian learning principles are investigated and also combined with the Plausible PNs (PPNs) methodology. PPNs are a variant within the PN paradigm, which are efficient to jointly consider the dynamics of discrete events, like maintenance actions, together with multiple sources of uncertain information about a state variable. The manuscript shows the mathematical conditions and computational procedure where the Bayesian updating becomes a particular case of a more general basic operation within the PPN execution semantics, which enables the uncertain knowledge being updated from monitoring data. The approach is general, but here it is demonstrated in a novel computational model acting as expert system for railway track inspection management taken as a case study using published data from a laboratory simulation of train loading on ballast. The results reveal selfadaptability and uncertainty management as key enabling aspects to optimize inspection actions in railway track, only being adaptively and autonomously triggered based on the actual learnt state of track and other contextual issues, like resource availability, as opposed to scheduled periodic maintenance activities.Lloyd'sRegister Foundation, Grant/Award Number: RB4539; Engineering and Physical SciencesResearch Council, Grant/Award Number:EP/M023028/

Robust optimal sensor configuration using the value of information

Sensing is the cornerstone of any functional structural health monitoring technology, with sensor number and placement being a key aspect for reliable monitoring. We introduce for the first time a robust methodology for optimal sensor configuration based on the value of information that accounts for (1) uncertainties from updatable and nonupdatable parameters, (2) variability of the objective function with respect to nonupdatable parameters, and (3) the spatial correlation between sensors. The optimal sensor configuration is obtained by maximizing the expected value of information, which leads to a cost-benefit analysis that entails model parameter uncertainties. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on an application of structural health monitoring in plate-like structures using ultrasonic guided waves. We show that accounting for uncertainties is critical for an accurate diagnosis of damage. Furthermore, we provide critical assessment of the role of both the effect of modeling and measurement uncertainties and the optimization algorithm on the resulting sensor placement. The results on the health monitoring of an aluminum plate indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology in discovering optimal sensor configurations. © 2022 The Authors. Structural Control and Health Monitoring published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Nonlinear ultrasonics for early damage detection

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an emerging discipline that aims at improving the management of the life cycle of industrial components. The scope of this chapter is to present the integration of nonlinear ultrasonics with the Bayesian inverse problem as an appropriate tool to estimate the updated health state of a component taking into account the associated uncertainties. This updated information can be further used by prognostics algorithms to estimate the future damage stages. Nonlinear ultrasonics allows an early detection of damage moving forward the achievement of reliable predictions, while the inverse problem emerges as a rigorous method to extract the slight signature of early damage inside the experimental signals using theoretical models. The Bayesian version of the inverse problem allows measuring the underlying uncertainties, improving the prediction process. This chapter presents the fundamentals of nonlinear ultrasonics, their practical application for SHM, and the Bayesian inverse problem as a method to unveil damage and manage uncertainty.</jats:p

Virtual and Mobile Healthcare: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice. Chapter 34.

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an emerging discipline that aims at improving the management of the life cycle of industrial components. The scope of this chapter is to present the integration of nonlinear ultrasonics with the Bayesian inverse problem as an appropriate tool to estimate the updated health state of a component taking into account the associated uncertainties. This updated information can be further used by prognostics algorithms to estimate the future damage stages. Nonlinear ultrasonics allows an early detection of damage moving forward the achievement of reliable predictions, while the inverse problem emerges as a rigorous method to extract the slight signature of early damage inside the experimental signals using theoretical models. The Bayesian version of the inverse problem allows measuring the underlying uncertainties, improving the prediction process. This chapter presents the fundamentals of nonlinear ultrasonics, their practical application for SHM, and the Bayesian inverse problem as a method to unveil damage and manage uncertainty.Laboratorio de Evaluación No Destructiva. Departamento de Mecánica de Estructuras e Ingeniería Hidráulica. Universidad de Granad