Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Vessel geometry and microvascular hand-sewn end-to-end anastomoses using Alexis Carrell’s technique: is the intuition of the Nobel Prize still valuable?

Background We review here our substantial experience in using Alexis Carrel’s technique with a geometrical optimization for microsurgical end-to-end anastomoses. Methods The technique used for microsurgical end-to-end anastomoses is described. We performed a retrospective analysis of head and neck free flaps where we used the described microsurgical anastomoses technique at Bufalini Hospital in Cesena, Italy. Patients’ demographic data, intraoperative findings, and postoperative progress, including complications, were accurately re- corded. We also recorded the cases where vessel size discrepancy was observed intraoperatively, either arterial or venous. Results The described technique has been used in 300 consecutive flaps in the last 18 years, with an average of 16 free flaps per year. No significant problems were encountered using this simple technique. Comprehensive flap survival was 98%. We had 5 free flap failures, and in all cases, the main problem was not related to the microvascular anastomoses. Vessel size discrepancy was recorded in 25% of the total. Conclusions Alexis Carrel’s technique for microvascular end-to-end anastomoses is still a very efficient end safe technique. Our geometrical optimization of it is a useful trick to keep in mind for the microvascular surgeon, especially in hospitals with a small volume of microsurgical procedures per year

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

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