CONCEQUENCES OF THE WAR: IMPACT ON CROATIAN POPULATION

One would think that war and full employment walk hand in hand. So was the conviction of many scholars, based on the evidence of numerous countries engaged in more than few wars, especially in Europe. Sometimes it even started to look like a \u27\u27good " war and war industry was a way out of persistent high employment for some countries. But not for Croatia. Despite the cruel and lasting war and long tenn low population birth rate, unemployment has steadily increased. In 1996, there are less than lmill people employed in Croatia against 1,6 mill employed in 1990, which means the drop of 40% in total working force

The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence

The paper surveys empirical evidence on the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. The survey encompasses the published empirical work on the phenomenon since its (re)discovery in 1964. In total, 58 empirical papers are examined within a specialized analytical framework. The body of empirical evidence is synthesized through four major elements. The analysis starts with the ongoing controversy related to the name of the theory. This is followed by a presentation of the evolution of the theoretical and econometric model. It ends with an analysis of the results of the surveyed empirical studies. Results of the survey indicate that growing body of evidence definitely points towards professional rethinking about the significance of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect.Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect, real exchange rate, purchasing power parity, productivity

MAKROEKONOMIJA TRŽIŠNE TRANSFORMACIJE STAMBENE INDUSTRIJE

Hrvatska kao nova neovisna zemlja prolazi kroz složeni proces tranzicije prema tržišnom okruženju. Taj proces naročito obuhvaća stambenu izgradnju, jer je taj sektor bio posebno izložen ratu i agresiji, a to je rezultiralo u ciljanju glavnine potencijala prema rekonstrukciji razorenog i uništenog stambenog vlasništva. Bitna suvremena rekonstrukcija mora također uključiti sve oblike tržišne, društvene, politike okoliša i ekonomske politike, kao funkciju nove kvalitete života koji bi pogodovao uspostavljanju skladnog regionalnog i održivog razvitka. No, od najveće je važnosti primijetiti da je djelotvoran proces privatizacije i uspostavljanje čvrstog i nadmoćnog privatnog sektora nezaobilazan preduvjet za sveukupan ekonomski razvitak, a i za učinkovitost stambene industrije. Zato je povećana uloga privatnog sektora u jakoj uzajamnoj vezi s uspješnom transformacijom tržišta i vremenom potrebnim da se “dostigne” putanja rasta

SIMETRIJA NAPREDOVANJA I NAZADOVANJA HRVATSKE EKONOMIJE

Generally speaking the 20th century displayed turbulent growth performance in Croatia. Contemporary developed countries have ended the century with many a time multiplied national output. The rest of the world encompassing dominant portion of world’s population and prevailing number of countries is still fi ghting uphill way through curving path of economic development, often exposed to many side-tracks and blind alleys. Growth periods when attained are immediately followed by periods of stagnation and/or overall regress, with unsatisfactorily growth performance in the long run. Result is widening of the development gap between vast majority of world population and minority of “lucky” ones living in developed economies. In that context Croatian experience is not only intriguing but also analytically very distinctive.Uopćeno govoreći hrvatski gospodarski razvitak tijekom 20. stoljeća može se ocijeniti turbulentnim, osobito u poredbi s razvijenim ekonomijama. Suvremene visoko razvijene zemlje postigle su višestruko uvećanje nacionalnog proizvoda tijekom proteklog stoljeća. Njima nasuprot, ostatak svijeta kojeg nastanjuje dominantna većina ukupnog svjetskog pučanstva i kojemu pripada pretežiti dio zemalja, još uvijek vodi neizvjesnu bitku na krivudavoj uzbrdici ekonomskog razvoja obilježenog brojnim stranputicama i slijepim ulicama. Kada se u nekoj od ovih zemalja i otvori razdoblje rasta, njega vrlo brzo naslijedi stagnacija i/ili svekoliki regres s dugoročno nepovoljnim razvojnim performansama. Izravna je posljedica takvih gibanja tijekom proteklog stoljeća, širenje razvojnog jaza između ogromne većine svjetskog pučanstva i manjine “sretnika” koji žive u razvijenim gospodarstvima. U tom je kontekstu hrvatsko ekonomsko iskustvo ne samo intrigantno nego i analitički vrlo upečatljivo

Tourism, welfare and real estate market in small open economy: the case of Croatia

The paper investigates effects of the tourism boom on the real estate market in Croatia. According to the general equilibrium models of the tourism intensive small open economy, the most important benefit of the tourism is reflected in the fixed-factors rents, namely real estate market rents. This paper investigates results of the small open tourism intensive economy theoretical model in the case of the transition and EU accession of the Croatian economy. Analysis is focused on the real exchange rate changes in the tourism sector as the main source of welfare improvements and its effects on the fixed-factor prices in Croatia.tourism, real estate, development, EU enlargement, Croatia

LONG TERM TRENDS AND CONSTRAINTS OF CROATIAN TOURIST MARKET

Motrenje makroekonomskih aspekata turističkog tržišta podrazumijeva raščlambu dugoročnih gibanja potražnje na emitivnim tržištima i strukturnih pomaka u ponudi hrvatskog turističkog proizvoda. Trendovi duljeg vremenskog razdoblja omogućuju utemeljeniju spoznaju, kako neupitnih mogućnosti, tako i bitnih ograničenja turističkog razvitka koje ga čine poželjnom djelatnošću, ali i omeđuju stvarnu mogućnost doprinosa turizma ukupnom gospodarskom napretku. U tekstu se raščlanjuju tržišne koncentracije odnosno udjeli pojedinih emitivnih tržišta u hrvatskom turističkom proizvodu i propituju razlozi dugoročne stabilnosti glavnih emitivnih tržišta. Narečeni istraživački pristup omogućuje identifikaciju utjecaja koji dugoročna analiza trendova iz proteklog razdoblja ima na mogućnost prognoziranja razvoja turizma u narednom desetljeću. Ovakav pristup doprinosi i definiranju pretpostavki redizajniranja ponude i restrukturiranja potražnje koje utječu na realnost projekcija.Analysis of macroeconomic aspects of tourist market implies decomposition of long term demand for Croatian tourist output on main international markets as well as structure shifts in service supply of Croatian tourist industry. Long term trends analysis provides insight in the possibilities and constraints of Croatian tourism growth. Based on previous research and confi rmed projections of past trends, and after indentifying certain conditions and constraints, it was possible to prognose development in next decade. Essential condition that the hypothetical projections strongly depend on, is necessary and profound restructuring of Croatian tourist industry supply that should lead to the new markets penetration and prolongated tourist season

INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF THE REFORM OF THE CROATIAN SYSTEM OF SCIENCE AND HIGHER EDUCATION

Nedvojben rastući utjecaj znanosti i visokog obrazovanja traži inovativnu institucionalnu koncepciju i na njoj utemeljenu strukturnu reformu sustava. Polazište je takvog pristupa zakonskog uređenja, prilagodba hrvatskoga sustava znanosti i visokog obrazovanja novoj, u svjetskim razmjerima prepoznatoj, vodećoj ulozi obrazovanja i znanstvenih istraživanja u ukupnom društvenom, gospodarskom, kulturnom i umjetničkom kao i osobnom razvoju. Ta je uloga razvidna u novim tehnološkim i organizacijskim obrascima gdje ljudski potencijali postaju (infrastrukturna) pretpostavka inovativnog i učinkovitog napretka. Nova uloga, pored ostalog, nosi sa sobom i posebnu odgovornost znanosti i visokog obrazovanja u adresiranju pratećih socijalnih izazova. Filozofski, estetski, kulturni i etički aspekti visokih tehnologija i nove stvarnosti zahtijevaju institucionalna rješenja koja potiču ubrzan razvoj i sustava i kvalitete visokog obrazovanja te intenziviranje i podizanje međunarodne relevantnosti znanstvenih istraživanja i inovacijske aktivnosti. To je temeljni preduvjet hvatanja europskog razvojnog koraka i ugradbe hrvatske nacionalne prepoznatljivosti u evoluciju europskog civilizacijskog kruga. Kako je kvaliteta istraživača i nastavnika, programa i institucija, ključ reformske preobrazbe, sustav osiguranja kvalitete nužno je ugraditi kao sastavni dio odgovarajućeg zakonskog rješenja.The undoubted growing influence of science and higher education calls for an innovative institutional conception and the structural reform of the system based on it. The starting point of such an approach to legal regulation is the adaptation of the Croatian system of science and higher education to the new, globally recognized, leading role of education and scientific research in the overall social, economic, cultural and artistic as well as personal development. This role is evident in new technological and organizational patterns where human resources become (infrastructural) a prerequisite for innovative and effective progress. The new role, among other things, carries with it a special responsibility of science and higher education in addressing the accompanying social challenges. Philosophical, aesthetic, cultural and ethical aspects of high technologies and new realities require institutional solutions that encourage the accelerated development of both the system and quality of higher education and the intensification and raising of the international relevance of scientific research and innovation activities. This is a fundamental precondition for capturing the European development step and incorporating Croatian national identity into the evolution of the European civilization circle. As the quality of researchers and teachers, programs and institutions is the key to the reform transformation, the quality assurance system must be incorporated as an integral part of the appropriate legal solution

The Role of the Criteria for Encouraging Scientific Excellence in the Development of Science

Kriteriji znanstvene izvrsnosti su u svakoj, osobito relativno maloj znanstvenoj zajednici poput Hrvatske, neophodan ali i neizostavan društveni sustav poticaja, odgovornosti i očekivanja od znanstvenika (doktora znanosti) kao vrha hrvatske znanstveno-obrazovne piramide. Istodobno, oni su i iskaz “samoorganiziranosti” ovog populacijski uskog segmenta hrvatskog društva. Znanstvenici njima oblikuju svoju osobnu i zajedničku potrebu i obvezu kontinuirane potvrde svoje intelektualne radoznalosti i talenta, istraživačkom predanošću i marljivošću, te mjerljivim i struci ali i široj društvenoj zajednici razumljivim rezultatima. Samo stručno razumna i društveno nijansirana kombinacija institucionalne (vanjske) kontrole i (unutarnje) samoodgovornosti znanstvenika može rezultirati objektivnom ocjenom znanstvenog doprinosa i potaknuti rast znanstvene produktivnosti. U tom smislu se u radu propituju kvantitativni i kvalitativni indikatori mjerenja znanstvene izvrsnosti, njihov međusoban odnos, te dinamika mijenjajućih pozicija pojedinih indikatora u cjelovitoj prosudbi kvalitete i primjenljivosti znanstvenih nalaza tijekom vremena.Research assessment criteria in any scientific community, especially a small one like Croatia, represent an indispensable public system of combined incentives, responsibility and expectations from (Ph.D.) researchers, who represent the peak of the scientific and higher education pyramid. At the same time these criteria are a result of the “self-organization” of the research community, that is itself a tiny segment of the Croatian society. With these criteria researchers are shaping their individual and common need and commitment to permanent testing of their intellectual curiosity, research drive and diligence by voluntarily submitting their findings to measurable and comprehensible test results not only to the professional but to the general public, as well. Only a professionally reasonable and publicly nuanced combination of institutional (external) control and (internal) self-responsibility of researchers and teachers themselves has a chance to objectively assess scientific contributions and stimulate research productivity. Following this line of reasoning, the paper aims to analyze quantitative and qualitative indicators measuring scientific excellence, their mutual relationship and interdependence, as well as the dynamics of changing positions of individual indicators in the comprehensive evaluation of the quality and practical implementation possibility of scientific findings over time