Report on TID algorithms

This deliverable presents the TID detection algorithms as improved in response to design principles stated in T2.1 and their testing in the lab environment, verification against measurements taken during quiet and disturbed periods of time, benchmarking for their transition to operations, and final validation to the user requirements of accuracy, timeliness, and coverage.TechTIDE project, funded by the European Commission Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [AD-1], will establish a pre-operational system to demonstrate reliability of a set of TID (Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances) detection methodologies to issue warnings of the occurrence of TIDs over the region extending from Europe to South Africa. TechTIDE warning system will estimate the parameters that specify the TID characteristics and the inferred perturbation, with all additional geophysical information to the users to help them assess the risks and to develop mitigation techniques, tailored to their application. This document is TechTIDE D2.2 “Report on the TID algorithms” and it is an output of TechTIDE Task 2.2 (Development of the TID identification algorithms and products) of the WP2 (TID identification methodologies) which has the final goal to release the basic algorithms for the TID identification and to test a first version of the value-added products for implementation in the TechTIDE warning system. The document highlights four aspects of the TID algorithm release process, (1) Developmentbased on the concept, techniques, and algorithms as stated in TechTIDE D2.1, (2) Verification, an internal testing process that ensures algorithm correctness, (3) Benchmarkingneeded to prepare algorithms to transition to operations, and (4) Validation, an external process of ensuring that developed algorithms are compliant with the stated end user expectations.Postprint (published version

Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods

The paper reviews the work done in the course of the COST 271 Action concerned with the development of tools and methods for forecasting, nowcasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions. Three broad categories of work are covered. First, the maintenance and enhancement of existing operational services that provide forecast or nowcast data products to end users; brief descriptions of RWC Warsaw and the STIF service are given. Second, the development of prototype or experimental services; descriptions are given of a multi-datasource system for reconstruction of electron density profiles, and a new technique using real-time IMF data to forecast ionospheric storms. The third category is the most wide-ranging, and deals with work that has presented new or improved tools or methods that future operational forecasting or nowcasting system will rely on. This work covers two areas - methods for updating models with prompt data, and improvements in modelling or our understanding of various ionospheric-magnetospheric features - and ranges over updating models of ionospheric characteristics and electron density, modelling geomagnetic storms, describing the spatial evolution of the mid-latitude trough, and validating a recently-proposed technique for deriving TEC from ionosonde observations

Evaluation of the automatic ionogram scaling for use in real-time ionospheric density profile specification: Dourbes DGS-256/ARTIST-4 performance.

<p>Statistical evaluation of the Dourbes (4.6˚E, 50.1˚N) digisonde automatic scaling of the more frequently used ionospheric parameters (foF2, foF1, foE, h’F2, h’F, h’E, and M3000F2) was performed using automatically and manually scaled data from the time period of 2002 to 2008. Automatic scaling was provided in 92% to 94% of cases for most characteristics, except for foF1 (81%). In terms of the automatic scaling accuracy, the magnitude of the residual error for foF2 and M3000F2 (automatically minus manually scaled values) varied according to local time, season, and solar activity. Although geomagnetic storms appear to affect the automatic scaling, the overall results for the influence of geomagnetic activity were inconclusive. Based on this analysis, error bounds were determined (95% probability) for each characteristic: foF2 (–0.75,+0.85), foF1(–0.25,+0.35), foE(–0.35,+0.40), h’F2(–68,+67), h’F(–38,+32), h’E(–26,+2), and M3000F2(–0.55,+0.45).</p

Modeling the plasmasphere to topside ionosphere scale height ratio

A new model of plasmasphere to topside ionosphere scale heights ratio is developed, based on topside electron density (Ne) profiles deduced from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS)-1 satellite measurements. The model is able to improve operational algorithms for space weather predictions. The topside ionospheric and plasmaspheric scale heights are determined by the lowest and largest gradients of measured profiles, respectively, converted in dh/dlnNe units. The new model depends on four parameters: the month of the year (M), the local time (LT), the geomagnetic latitude (glat), and the ln(O+) density (zO) at the O+-H+ ion transition height. It is designed to replace the old one-dimensional model of the ratio in the TaD (TSM-assisted Digisonde) profiler. The parameters M, LT, and glat are approximated by trigonometric basis functions, while zO is described by a polynomial. A series of models were produced with different number of coefficients (number of terms) of the basis functions. Comparison between models revealed that those with larger number of coefficients can produce unrealistic extremes of the model curves due to the non-uniform sampling of data along the axes. Further considered is the simplest model approximating M, LT, and glat by simple 24 sinusoidal functions and linearly depending on zO. The model description and its 54 coefficients are given in Appendix 1 and can be used by other users for reconstruction of plasmasphere density profiles. The main variation of the ratio along geomagnetic latitude at fixed values of the other model parameters is illustrated in a series of plots