Machine learning identifies ecological selectivity patterns across the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction occurred alongside a large swath of environmental changes that are often invoked as extinction mechanisms, even when a direct link is lacking. One way to elucidate the cause(s) of a mass extinction is to investigate extinction selectivity, as it can reveal critical information on organismic traits as key determinants of extinction and survival. Here we show that machine learning algorithms, specifically gradient boosted decision trees, can be used to identify determinants of extinction as well as to predict extinction risk. To understand which factors led to the end-Permian mass extinction during an extreme global warming event, we quantified the ecological selectivity of marine extinctions in the well-studied South China region. We find that extinction selectivity varies between different groups of organisms and that a synergy of multiple environmental stressors best explains the overall end-Permian extinction selectivity pattern. Extinction risk was greater for genera that had a low species richness, narrow bathymetric ranges limited to deep-water habitats, a stationary mode of life, a siliceous skeleton, or, less critically, calcitic skeletons. These selective losses directly link the extinctions to the environmental effects of rapid injections of carbon dioxide into the ocean-atmosphere system, specifically the combined effects of expanded oxygen minimum zones, rapid warming, and potentially ocean acidification

Response of Siliceous Marine Organisms to the Permian-Triassic Climate Crisis Based on New Findings From Central Spitsbergen, Svalbard

Siliceous marine ecosystems play a critical role in shaping the Earth's climate system by influencing rates of organic carbon burial and marine authigenic clay formation (i.e., reverse weathering). The ecological demise of silicifying organisms associated with the Permian-Triassic mass extinction is postulated to have elevated marine authigenic clay formation rates, resulting in a prolonged greenhouse climate during the Early Triassic. Yet, our understanding of the response of siliceous marine organisms during this critical interval is poor. Whilst radiolarians experienced the strongest diversity loss in their evolutionary history and perhaps also the greatest population decline of silica-secreting organisms during this event, only a small number of Griesbachian (post-extinction) localities that record siliceous organisms are known. Here, we report newly discovered latest Changhsingian to early Griesbachian (Clarkina meishanensis - Hindeodus parvus Zone) radiolarians and siliceous sponge spicules from Svalbard. This fauna documents the survival of a low-diversity radiolarian assemblage alongside stem-group hexactinellid sponges making this the first described account of post-extinction silica-secreting organisms from the Permian/Triassic boundary in a shallow marine shelf environment and a mid-northern paleolatitudinal setting. Our findings indicate that latitudinal diversity gradients for silica-secreting organisms following the mass extinction were significantly altered, and that silica productivity was restricted to high latitude and deep water thermal refugia. This result has potential to further shape our understanding of changes in marine dissolved silica levels and in turn rates of reverse weathering, with implications for our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics during this interval

Large mass-independent oxygen isotope fractionations in mid-Proterozoic sediments: Evidence for a low-oxygen atmosphere?

Earth's ocean-atmosphere system has undergone a dramatic but protracted increase in oxygen (O₂) abundance. This environmental transition ultimately paved the way for the rise of multicellular life and provides a blueprint for how a biosphere can transform a planetary surface. However, estimates of atmospheric oxygen levels for large intervals of Earth's history still vary by orders of magnitude-foremost for Earth's middle history. Historically, estimates of mid-Proterozoic (1.9-0.8 Ga) atmospheric oxygen levels are inferred based on the kinetics of reactions occurring in soils or in the oceans, rather than being directly tracked by atmospheric signatures. Rare oxygen isotope systematics-based on quantifying the rare oxygen isotope ¹⁷O in addition to the conventionally determined ¹⁶O and ¹⁸O-provide a means to track atmospheric isotopic signatures and thus potentially provide more direct estimates of atmospheric oxygen levels through time. Oxygen isotope signatures that deviate strongly from the expected mass-dependent relationship between ¹⁶O, ¹⁷O, and ¹⁸O develop during ozone formation, and these "mass-independent" signals can be transferred to the rock record during oxidation reactions in surface environments that involve atmospheric O₂. The magnitude of these signals is dependent upon O₂, CO₂, and the overall extent of biospheric productivity. Here, we use a stochastic approach to invert the mid-Proterozoic Δ¹⁷O record for a new estimate of atmospheric O₂, leveraging explicit coupling of O₂ and biospheric productivity in a biogeochemical Earth system model to refine the range of atmospheric O₂ values that is consistent with a given observed Δ¹⁷O. Using this approach, we find new evidence that atmospheric oxygen levels were less than ∼1% of the present atmospheric level (PAL) for at least some intervals of the Proterozoic Eon

An evaluation of sedimentary molybdenum and iron as proxies for pore fluid paleoredox conditions

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in American Journal of Science 318 (2018): 527-556, doi:10.2475/05.2018.04.Iron speciation and trace metal proxies are commonly applied together in efforts to identify anoxic settings marked by the presence of free sulfide (euxinia) or dissolved iron (ferruginous) in the water column. Here, we use a literature compilation from modern localities to provide a new empirical evaluation of coupled Fe speciation and Mo concentrations as a proxy for pore water sulfide accumulation at non-euxinic localities. We also present new Fe speciation, Mo concentration, and S isotope data from the Friends of Anoxic Mud (FOAM) site in Long Island Sound, which is marked by pore water sulfide accumulation of up to 3 mM beneath oxygen-containing bottom waters. For the operationally defined Fe speciation scheme, ‘highly reactive’ Fe (FeHR) is the sum of pyritized Fe (Fepy) and Fe dominantly present in oxide phases that is available to react with pore water sulfide to form pyrite. Observations from FOAM and elsewhere confirm that Fepy/FeHR from non-euxinic sites is a generally reliable indicator of pore fluid redox, particularly the presence of pore water sulfide. Molybdenum (Mo) concentration data for anoxic continental margin sediments underlying oxic waters but with sulfidic pore fluids typically show authigenic Mo enrichments (2-25 ppm) that are elevated relative to the upper crust (1-2 ppm). However, compilations of Mo concentrations comparing sediments with and without sulfidic pore fluids underlying oxic and low oxygen (non-euxinic) water columns expose non-unique ranges for each, exposing false positives and false negatives. False positives are most frequently found in sediments from low oxygen water columns (for example, Peru Margin), where Mo concentration ranges can also overlap with values commonly found in modern euxinic settings. FOAM represents an example of a false negative, where, despite elevated pore water sulfide concentrations and evidence for active Fe and Mn redox cycling in FOAM sediments, sedimentary Mo concentrations show a homogenous vertical profile across 50 cm depth at 1-2 ppm. A diagenetic model for Mo provides evidence that muted authigenic enrichments are derived from elevated sedimentation rates. Consideration of a range of additional parameters, most prominently pore water Mo concentration, can replicate the ranges of most sedimentary Mo concentrations observed in modern non-euxinic settings. Together, the modern Mo and Fe data compilations and diagenetic model provide a framework for identifying paleo-pore water sulfide accumulation in ancient settings and linked processes regulating seawater Mo and sulfate concentrations and delivery to sediments. Among other utilities, identifying ancient accumulation of sulfide in pore waters, particularly beneath oxic bottom waters, constrains the likelihood that those settings could have hosted organisms and ecosystems with thiotrophy at their foundations.DSH, TWL, NJP, and CRT acknowledge support from the NASA Astrobiology Institute under Cooperative Agreement No. NNA15BB03A issued through the Science Mission Directorate. Financial support was provided to NR and TWL by NSF-OCE and an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program, as well as to BCG via a postdoctoral fellowship from the Agouron Institute. DSH was supported by a WHOI postdoctoral fellowship

Marine siliceous ecosystem decline led to sustained anomalous Early Triassic warmth.

In the wake of rapid CO2 release tied to the emplacement of the Siberian Traps, elevated temperatures were maintained for over five million years during the end-Permian biotic crisis. This protracted recovery defies our current understanding of climate regulation via the silicate weathering feedback, and hints at a fundamentally altered carbon and silica cycle. Here, we propose that the development of widespread marine anoxia and Si-rich conditions, linked to the collapse of the biological silica factory, warming, and increased weathering, was capable of trapping Earth's system within a hyperthermal by enhancing ocean-atmosphere CO2 recycling via authigenic clay formation. While solid-Earth degassing may have acted as a trigger, subsequent biotic feedbacks likely exacerbated and prolonged the environmental crisis. This refined view of the carbon-silica cycle highlights that the ecological success of siliceous organisms exerts a potentially significant influence on Earth's climate regime

Evolution of the global carbon cycle and climate regulation on Earth

The existence of stabilizing feedbacks within Earth's climate system is generally thought to be necessary for the persistence of liquid water and life. Over the course of Earth's history, Earth's atmospheric composition appears to have adjusted to the gradual increase in solar luminosity, resulting in persistently habitable surface temperatures. With limited exceptions, the Earth system has been observed to recover rapidly from pulsed climatic perturbations. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) regulation via negative feedbacks within the coupled global carbon‐silica cycles are classically viewed as the main processes giving rise to climate stability on Earth. Here we review the long‐term global carbon cycle budget, and how the processes modulating Earth's climate system have evolved over time. Specifically, we focus on the relative roles that shifts in carbon sources and sinks have played in driving long‐term changes in atmospheric pCO₂. We make the case that marine processes are an important component of the canonical silicate weathering feedback, and have played a much more important role in CO₂ regulation than traditionally imagined. Notably, geochemical evidence indicate that the weathering of marine sediments and off‐axis basalt alteration act as major carbon sinks. However, this sink was potentially dampened during Earth's early history when oceans had higher levels of dissolved silicon (Si), iron (Fe), and magnesium (Mg), and instead likely fostered more extensive carbon recycling within the ocean‐atmosphere system via reverse weathering—that in turn acted to elevate ocean‐atmosphere CO₂ levels

Evidence for episodic oxygenation in a weakly redox-buffered deep mid-Proterozoic ocean

Over the last two decades, popular opinion about prevailing conditions in the mid-Proterozoic deep ocean has evolved from fully oxygenated to globally euxinic (sulfidic) to a more heterogeneous, stratified water column with localized pockets of euxinia existing in predominantly iron-rich (ferruginous) deep waters. The Animikie Basin in theL ake Superior region has been essential in shaping our view of marine redox evolution over this time period. In this study, we present a multi-proxy paleoredox investigation of previously unanalyzed strata of the late Paleoproterozoic AnimikieB asin using drill cores through the -1.85 Ga Stambaugh Formation (PaintR iver Group) in the Iron River-Crystal Falls district of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. Based on previous tectonic reconstructions and analysis of sedimentary regimes, theI ronR iver-Crystal Falls section captures strata from among the deepest-water facies of the AnimikieB asin.I n contrast to previous work on sedimentary rocks in this basin, we find evidence from iron speciation, trace metal, and Mo isotope data for episodes of at least local deep-water oxygenation within a basin otherwise dominated by ferruginous and euxinic conditions. While tracemetal enrichments and iron speciation data suggest predominantly anoxic conditions, the occurrence of Mn-rich intervals (up to 12.3 wt% MnO) containing abundant Mn-Fe carbonate, and a wide range of Mo isotope data with extremely negative values (8 98195 Mo = -1.0 to + 1.1 %0), record the shuttling of Mn-oxides from surface waters through oxic or suboxic waters to the sediment-water interface. We propose that such conditions are analogous to those of locally restricted modern and Holocene basins in the Baltic Sea, which receive episodic inflow of oxygenated water, producing similar geochemical signatures to those observed for the AnimikieB asin. We argue that the mid-Proterozoic was characterized by a lack of a strong redox buffer (low sulfide, ferrous iron, and oxygen contents), and thus was vulnerable to dramatic, and at least local, redox shifts-including briefly oxygenated bottom waters. A refined view of the mid-Proterozoic ocean is emerging: one that was still predominantly anoxic, but marked by regional heterogeneities and short-term redox variability that may, in part, reflect a transitional state between prevailingly anoxic Archean and predominantly oxic Phanerozoic oceans