The Impact of Financial Crises on Trade Flows: A Developing Country Perspective

The global financial crisis has hit hard international trade that dropped below levels not seen since the Great Depression with disastrous consequences for the developing world. This paper estimates an extended gravity model of trade on a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990-2007 to shed light on how banking crises and global economic downturns affect bilateral exports flows from developing countries. In addition to traditional variables, we include a trade finance variable and foreign aid among the regressors. Differences between developing regions are taken into account. Our results show that (i) trade finance has a positive and significant impact on bilateral export flows in all developing regions except Latin America; (ii) foreign aid matters in all regions; (iii) global economic downturns exert a negative and significant impact on export flows in all developing countries, and especially in Latin American and Sub-Saharan African economies; (iv) banking crises appear to have no significant impact in most regions.Banking Crises, Developing Countries, Foreign Aid, Global Downturn, International Trade, Trade Finance, Mixed Effects Panel Data, Random Coefficients., Agricultural and Food Policy, C23, F11, F12, F34, F35, G01.,

Photoidentification as a complementary tool to evaluate whale shark movements between different areas: the case of Nosy Be in Madagascar and the Gulf of Tadjoura in Djibouti

The whale shark Rhincodon typus, the world’s largest fish, is highly mobile, and is capable of migrating for thousands of kilometers each year. According to the IUCN Red List, areas where 500 or more individuals have been documented through either counts or model estimates include the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia, Darwin Island in the Galapagos, Quintana Roo in Mexico, Inhambane province in Mozambique, Philippines, and Mahe in the Seychelles (Pierce & Norman, 2016). However, information on the global population structure and movement patterns remains limited. Recently, the whale shark population in Madagascar has been estimated at more than 400 individuals (Diamant et al., 2021), while in Djibouti at about 190 individuals (Boldrocchi et al., 2020). The aim of the study is to compare in the long term the two populations with a non-invasive system of identification of individual specimens, the I3S Classic program, to evaluate the possible presence of movements of individuals between these two areas

The Global Financial Crisis and Developing Countries: Phase 2 Synthesis

When the global financial crisis broke out in earnest in September 2008, it quickly became clear that developing countries would also be affected, but that the impacts would vary markedly. The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) coordinated a multi-country study over January-March 2009 involving developing country teams in 10 countries. This showed that, while the transmission mechanisms were similar in each (trade, private capital flows, remittances, aid), the effects varied by country, and much was not yet visible. As such, further country-specific monitoring was required. Most findings suggested that, as a result of time lags, the worst effects were yet to come. This synthesis of the effects of the global financial crisis on developing countries updates the description of the economic and social situation during the course of the crisis in 11 countries

Go Long or Short in Pyramids? News From the Egyptian Stock Market

Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.Stock markets;Stock prices;stock market, cointegration, correlations, stock price, stock market indices, correlation, statistics, stock price index, stock exchanges, overvaluation, autocorrelation, standard deviation, stock index, equity markets, statistic, stock exchange, discount rate, equation, stock market capitalization, present value, descriptive statistics, stock valuation, stock market index, stock indices, stock market prices, statistical model, time series, stock market development, stock price indices, hedge, stock market developments, statistical techniques, local stock market, stock companies, financial statistics, financial markets, stationary process, stock market bubble, covariance, derivative products, financial sector, derivative, stock exchange index, foreign equity, sampling, international financial statistics, real discount rate, discount rates, discounting, asset bubbles, international finance, equity market, empirical model, polynomial, parsimonious model, hypothesis testing, real variables, financial structure

What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia

In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in a panel of 17 countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, including both hydrocarbon-rich countries and economies without sizeable natural resource wealth. In addition to traditional variables, we include an institutional variable and remittances among the regressors. We find that (i) both institutions and remittances have a positive and significant impact on market capitalization; and (ii) both regressors matter, especially in countries without significant hydrocarbon sectors; whereas (iii) in resource-rich countries, stock market capitalization is mainly driven by the oil price.Stock markets;Middle East and Central Asia;Natural resources;Oil prices;Workers remittances;Economic models;stock market, stock market capitalization, stock market development, domestic credit, financial markets, financial sector, capital markets, capital formation, financial sector development, international financial statistics, financial intermediaries, financial intermediation, investor confidence, stock market liquidity, financial structure, bond, financial intermediary development, financial market development, stock value, financial market, financial sector performance, equity market, commodity prices, capital flows, capital control, stock market developments, financial systems, equity markets

Go long or short in pyramids? News from the Egyptian stock market

Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.Egypt Stock market Performance Cointegration Fundamentals

What drives stock market development in emerging markets--institutions, remittances, or natural resources?

In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in a panel of 17 emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia, including both hydrocarbon-rich countries and economies without sizeable natural resource wealth. In addition to traditional variables, we include an institutional variable and remittances among the regressors. We find that (i) both institutions and remittances have a positive and significant impact on market capitalization; and (ii) both regressors matter, especially in countries without significant hydrocarbon sectors; whereas (iii) in resource-rich countries, stock market capitalization is mainly driven by the oil price.Stock market capitalization Emerging markets Panel Institutions Remittances