Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Synthesebericht

Der vorliegende Synthesebericht schließt die modulare DEval-Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel ab. Ziel des Berichts ist es, die Wirksamkeit des Anpassungsportfolios der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (EZ) und der Umsetzung des Mainstreamings von Anpassung sowie die Förderung von transformativen und konfliktsensiblen Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu bewerten. Neben einer Evaluierungssynthese zur Wirksamkeit der Maßnahmen nutzt die Evaluierung Fallanalysen, theoriebildende Schreibtischstudien und Workshop

Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel: Landwirtschaft, Wasser, Umweltschutz, nationale Klimabeiträge und Anpassungspläne

Der vorliegende Bericht ist Teil der modularen DEval-Evaluierung von Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Ziel des Berichts ist es, die Effektivität, entwicklungspolitische Wirksamkeit und Nachhaltigkeit von Anpassungsmaßnahmen der deutschen EZ zu bewerten. Die Evaluierung untersucht Maßnahmen in den Sektoren Landwirtschaft, Wasser und Umweltschutz sowie die Unterstützung nationaler Klimabeiträge und Anpassungspläne. Dafür wurden eine Synthese von Projektevaluierungen und ein Systematic Review internationaler Studien sowie eine georäumliche Wirkungsevaluierung und vergleichende Fallstudien durchgeführt

The Impact of Rainfall Variability on Diets and Undernutrition of Young Children in Rural Burkina Faso

Background: Climate change and consequent increases in rainfall variability may have negative consequences for the food production of subsistence farmers in West Africa with adverse impacts on nutrition and health. We explored the pathway from rainfall through diet up to child undernutrition for rural Burkina Faso. Methods: The study used data of a dynamic cohort with 1,439 children aged 7-60 months from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) for 2017 to 2019. We assessed data on diets, height, weight, household characteristics, and daily precipitation (from 1981 to 2019). Principal component analysis was used to identify distinct child dietary patterns (Dietary Pattern Scores, DPS). These were related to 15 rainfall indicators by area to obtain a precipitation variability score (PVS) through reduced rank regression (RRR). Associations between the PVS and anthropometric measures, height-for-age (HAZ), and weight-for-height (WHZ), were examined using multi-level regression analysis. Results: Stunting (HAZ < -2) and wasting (WHZ < -2) were seen in 24 and 6% of the children. Three main dietary patterns were identified (market-based, vegetable-based, and legume-based diets) and showed mixed evidence for associations with child undernutrition. The RRR-derived PVS explained 14% of the total variance in these DPS. The PVS was characterized by more consecutive dry days during the rainy season, higher cumulative rainfall in July and more extremely wet days. A 1-point increase in the PVS was associated with a reduction of 0.029 (95% CI: -0.06, 0.00, p < 0.05) in HAZ in the unadjusted, and an increase by 0.032 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.06, p < 0.05) in WHZ in the fully adjusted model. Conclusion: Rainfall variability was associated with dietary patterns in young children of a rural population of Burkina Faso. Increased rainfall variability was associated with an increase in chronic undernutrition, but not in acute undernutrition among young children

Burden and determinants of anaemia among in-school young adolescents in Ethiopia, Sudan and Tanzania.

Anaemia among adolescents is a global health problem. However, evidence regarding its burden and risk factors, particularly for younger adolescents and in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), remains scarce. We aimed to assess the prevalence and potential determinants of anaemia among urban and semi-urban in-school young adolescents in Ethiopia, Sudan and Tanzania. We conducted a school-based survey among 3558 adolescents aged 10-14 years. A capillary blood sample was used to assess haemoglobin concentration. We assessed anaemia prevalence and examined associations between measures at the individual, household and school levels and anaemia using Poisson regression models adjusted for school and country-level clustering. The prevalence of anaemia was 32.0% overall, and 10.8% in Ethiopia, 25.0% in Sudan and 58.3% in Tanzania. Being a boy [adjusted risk ratio (RR): 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.15, p < 0.001], poorer diet quality (RR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02-1.23 p = 0.015), no school handwashing stations (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.20-1.32, p < 0.001) and food insecurity (RR for moderate/severe anaemia: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10, p = 0.002) were associated with increased anaemia risk. Younger age (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.96, p < 0.001) and increasing height-for-age z-score (RR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.95, p < 0.001) were associated with decreased anaemia risk. Associations were consistent for moderate or severe anaemia. There was no evidence of effect modification by sex. This study highlights anaemia as a public health problem and identified nutritional, dietary and hygiene measures as key risk factors of anaemia among young adolescents in SSA. School-based interventions addressing these factors could reduce the burden of anaemia in adolescence

Every drop matters: combining population-based and satellite data to investigate the link between lifetime rainfall exposure and chronic undernutrition in children under five years in rural Burkina Faso.

Climate change is projected to induce extreme and irregular rainfall patterns in the West African Sahel region, affecting household food security and income. Children are among the worst affected population groups. Previous studies focusing on rainfall irregularities in specified periods have revealed how child health and nutritional status are impacted, especially in rural settings. However, the aggregated effect of rainfall over a lifetime on chronic child undernutrition remains poorly understood. We conducted a multilevel regression using a 2017 household survey from rural Burkina Faso containing 12 919 under-five-year-old children and their corresponding household rainfall data. The rainfall data originated from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations monthly dataset with a native resolution of 4.8 km (0.05°). We show that an increase in rainfall below 75 mm monthly average tends to produce poor nutritional outcomes (regression coefficient = −0.11***; 95% CI = −0.13, −0.10; p < 0.001) in rural Burkina Faso children. We found a consistent negative relationship between different sex and household wealth groups, but not age groups. Vulnerable younger children were more affected by the adverse effects of increased rainfall, while older children seemed to handle it better. Our methodological approach tracing the impact of rainfall over children’s lifetimes makes a meaningful contribution to the portfolio of tools for studying the complex relationship between climate change and health outcomes. Our work confirms that rainfall is a risk factor for chronic child undernutrition, highlighting the need for adaptation strategies that boost household and community resilience to counteract the harmful impacts of climate change on child nutritional status

Energy blackouts and water outages : a risk management approach towards raising awareness and assuming responsibility

Awareness of the risk of an energy blackout and its effects on the water sector are inadequate. It is undeniable that electricity is needed for water pumps and the mechanical treatment of wastewater. A gravitational water flow can avoid interdependency, which is regionally limited and should not be generalized. This work aims to raise awareness and assume responsibility in order to show that a risk for blackouts and water outages exist in industrialized countries and that planning and preparation are necessary. A risk management approach with five pillars is used as a guideline. The first pillar emphasizes the lack of examination of the effects of a power outage on the water sector. Today-s critical infrastructure is more complex and vulnerable to power outages than ever before. The causes for outages as covered by the second pillar include natural, societal and technical causes. A blackout does not need to be the disaster itself, but can be the result of heat waves or mismanagement. The consequences of blackouts and water outages, as described in pillar three, reach from a halt of water supply and low water quality to disrupted communication and social upheaval. Suddenly common behavioral structures are questioned and communication channels are cut. Missing communication means emphasize the need for in advance preparation and exchange between all stakeholders. Technical mitigation measures such as backup generators can only sustain daily life temporarily, while self-sufficient energy systems and renewable energy sources could provide electricity as energy islands. Social resilience and public/ private partnerships are additional management mechanisms assuring safe drinking-water and hygiene throughout the blackout. Several possible response measures are shared, although their application depends on a variety of aspects, for example: duration of the power outage; the amount of regions or countries concerned; and the season of the year. A fixed plan cannot be applied given that blackouts and water outages are unpredictable. Stakeholder interviews conducted in Austria and international case examples help to define awareness, perceptions and responsibilities towards blackouts and water outages in industrialized countries.12

The impact of climate variability on diets and child undernutrition in rural Burkina Faso

Undernutrition continues to threaten millions of children's lives, especially in developing countries. Climate change is projected to exacerbate inequalities and negatively impact child undernutrition directly and indirectly. The present study assessed the association between undernutrition of children aged <5 years living in subsistence farming households and climate change, as proxied by rainfall variability in rural Burkina Faso. Both children’s nutrition and health are likely to worsen with climate change. Indeed, climate change may halt or reverse efforts made to date to reduce undernutrition. This research was structured around four objectives (i) socio-economic risk factors for and (ii) associations of diets with child undernutrition, and (iii) the link between rainfall variability and child undernutrition. Additionally, (iv) a validation study was conducted to compare weighed agricultural yield of small-scale household fields against freely available satellite imagery as an additional link to child undernutrition. These objectives were addressed through the use of a variety of study instruments and statistical approaches requiring the involvement of outside domain experts. The interdisciplinary nature of this research combining health, diet and climate made the analyses and findings unique in its current form. Data was analyzed from an open dynamic cohort of initially 470 children between 7 and 60 months contributing to 1,439 person-years during three years of follow-up. The study design accounted for five local weather stations located in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area to investigate the associations on different geographical- and time-scales. The following findings were made: First, undernutrition of children aged <5 years was found to remain a serious problem in the study area. In 2019, 19 % of the children in this study were stunted (chronic undernutrition) and 5 % were wasted (acute undernutrition). These children were found highly vulnerable to demographic and socio-economic factors including disease episodes and ethnical background, but also location, i.e. the geographical cluster they lived in. Second, dietary diversity was low in the study population. 92 % of the children did not reach the internationally recommend minimum dietary diversity of 5 or more food groups over the previous 24 hours. They commonly consumed sorghum, rice, Vitamin-A rich leaves, and oils and fats during the data collection period (the rainy season). The consumed foods were found to differ significantly between study clusters, but were undistinguishable between boys and girls. Based on a 7-day dietary recall, dietary patterns were identified through principal component analysis (PCA), which yielded three patterns of foods commonly consumed together: (i) market-based (pasta, eggs, poultry, sweets), legume-based (African locust bean, oils and fats, leaves, peanuts) and vegetable-based (okra, tomatoes, eggplant). Children, who followed the market- or legume-based diet were found less likely to be stunted, while children, who followed the vegetable-based diet had a lower risk for wasting. Third, the link between child undernutrition with rainfall variability was investigated through (i) direct associations of single rainfall variability indicators, and (ii) a hypothesis-driven approach by which the three dietary patterns (market-, legume- and vegetable-based diets) interacted with rainfall and child undernutrition. In total, 15 individual rainfall variability indicators were constructed for four time periods to identify their association with child stunting and wasting: the years prior to and of birth, and the years prior to and of the nutrition survey. The direct associations revealed that child stunting was significantly associated with rainfall of the year before the survey and child wasting with the year of birth. In the hypothesis-driven approach, a “precipitation variability score (PVS)” was construct through Reduced Rank Regression (RRR), a method used in nutrition epidemiology. The PVS was based on a combination of the 15 rainfall indicators and their association with the three dietary patterns. In sum, when the PVS pattern and so rainfall variability increased, the children had a higher risk for stunting. Lastly, an agricultural validation study was conducted in 2018 comparing weighed samples of food crop field harvests with remotely sensed estimates (using Sentinel-2 satellites) as jointly developed with a cooperation partner. The model was validated with on the ground weighed harvest and trained for future harvest quantification based on remote sensing alone. It showed good fit to estimate agricultural yields at small-scale spatial resolution of individual household fields. Furthermore, it was able to predict yield of individual food crops before the actual harvest occurred. To conclude, the findings of the study contributed a range of different insights into the associations of climate variability and child undernutrition. This study encourages policy actions to integrate climate change in their national and local decisions to act on its direct and indirect impacts on child health. Possible adaptation actions include the awareness of climate-sensitive diseases in health care systems, the scale-up of vegetable gardens to enhance dietary diversity, and the monitoring and forecasting of crop yield through satellite remote sensing. Equally, adaptation measures should consider for different geographic and time impacts of climate change on child undernutrition

Developing countries can adapt to climate change effectively using nature-based solutions

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MEvidence on the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries has been rapidly growing in recent years, particularly in the agricultural and coastal sectors. Here we address the question of whether results are consistent across intervention types, and risk reduction versus development-related outcomes using a systematic review of 363 empirical observations published in the scientific literature. Generally, we found more evidence of risk reduction outcomes in the coastal sector than in the agricultural sector, and more evidence of development-related outcomes in the agricultural sector. Further, results indicate that nature-based solutions have the strongest positive effects for both the coastal and agricultural sectors. Social/behavioural interventions in the coastal sector show negative effects on development-related outcomes that will need to be further tested. Taken together, our results highlight the opportunity for development and climate adaptation practitioners to promote adaptation interventions with co-benefits beyond risk reduction, particularly in the case of nature-based solutions

“We Will Always Ask Ourselves the Question of How to Feed the Family”: Subsistence Farmers’ Perceptions on Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso

In West Africa, climate change aggravates subsistence farmers&rsquo; vulnerability to weather variability to sustain their agricultural and nutritional requirements. For successful adaptation policies, in-depth understanding of farmers&rsquo; perceptions about climate change, agriculture, and adaptation strategies is essential. This qualitative study in rural Burkina Faso characterized farmers&rsquo; perceptions and knowledge through in-depth interviews. The study enumerated the barriers, possibilities, strategies/practices, and support sources of farmers. There was awareness but limited understanding of climate change amongst farmers. Those unable to adapt, faced increased health difficulties, specifically regarding nutrition and mental health. Farmers could implement some dietary and agricultural adaptation strategies (reduce meal size, frequency and variety, preemptive purchase of cereals, multi-cropping, crop rotation, modified seeds) but were unable to implement others (soil rehabilitation, water management). Barriers to implementation comprised financial and time constraints, material and labor shortages, and inaccessible information. Farmers did not understand, trust or utilize meteorological services, but appreciated and relied on agricultural extension services. They reported that social and governmental support was sporadic and inconsistent. This study uncovers the following targets for climate change adaptation policies in rural Burkina Faso: promoting meteorological services, expanding agricultural extension services, increasing access to financial resources, and framing sustainable adaptation within national development goals

Dietary habits associated with growth development of children aged &lt; 5 years in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND: Knowing which dietary habits are associated with child growth could lead to better long-term health outcomes and improve the design of food-based interventions. We aimed to identify dietary habits that are associated with the growth development of children aged &amp;lt; 5 years living in rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: This study used cross-sectional baseline data from 514 children (8–59 months) within the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in 2018. Household socio-demographics and child dietary habits, height and weight were assessed. We constructed scores for dietary diversity (DDS) and food variety (FVS), and extracted exploratory dietary pattern scores (DPS) using principal component analysis (PCA). Child growth was measured using height-for-age (HAZ) and weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ). We used multiple-adjusted linear regressions considering for socio-economic factors to quantify associations. RESULTS: In this study population (median 36 ± 14 months old), stunting (HAZ &amp;lt; − 2) was seen in 26% and wasting (WHZ &amp;lt; − 2) in 7%. The DDS (median 7 ± 2 food groups) was positively associated with WHZ, while the FVS (median 13 ± 8 food items) was inversely associated with HAZ. We identified 4 dietary patterns: leaves-based, beans and poultry-based, maize and fish-based, and millet and meat-based diets. Only the maize and fish-based diet showed a statistically significant and here positive trend for associations with WHZ. CONCLUSION: Growth development of children aged &amp;lt; 5 years continues to be a health problem in the Nouna HDSS. A higher dietary diversity and food variety and dietary patterns characterized by maize and fish and beans and poultry intake appear to be beneficial for growth of young children in this area