Mind the gap between policy imperatives and service provision: a qualitative study of the process of respiratory service development in England and Wales

The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Service Delivery and Organisation Programme. SDO/99/2005.Background: Healthcare systems globally are reconfiguring to address the needs of people with long-term conditions such as respiratory disease. Primary Care Organisations (PCOs) in England and Wales are charged with the task of developing cost-effective patient-centred local models of care. We aimed to investigate how PCOs in England and Wales are reconfiguring their workforce to develop respiratory services, and the background factors influencing service redesign. Methods: Semi-structured qualitative telephone interviews with the person(s) responsible for driving respiratory service reconfiguration in a purposive sample of 30 PCOs. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, coded and thematically analysed. Results: We interviewed representatives of 30 PCOs with diverse demographic profiles planning a range of models of care. Although the primary driver was consistently identified as the need to respond to a central policy to shift the delivery of care for people with long-term conditions into the community whilst achieving financial balance, the design and implementation of services were subject to a broad range of local, and at times serendipitous, influences. The focus was almost exclusively on the complex needs of patients at the top of the long-term conditions (LTC) pyramid, with the aim of reducing admissions. Whilst some PCOs seemed able to develop innovative care despite uncertainty and financial restrictions, most highlighted many barriers to progress, describing initiatives suddenly shelved for lack of money, progress impeded by reluctant clinicians, plans thwarted by conflicting policies and a PCO workforce demoralised by job insecurity. Conclusion: For many of our interviewees there was a large gap between central policy rhetoric driving workforce change, and the practical reality of implementing change within PCOs when faced with the challenges of limited resources, diverse professional attitudes and an uncertain organisational context. Research should concentrate on understanding these complex dynamics in order to inform the policymakers, commissioners, health service managers and professionals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer

NEA COMMITTEE ON SAFETY OF NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS PRESSURISED WATER REACTOR MAIN STEAM LINE BREAK (MSLB) BENCHMARK Volume I: Final Specifications

designed: − to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; − to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and − to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations

Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study

377siBackground: Patient factors associated with urinary tract cancer can be used to risk stratify patients referred with haematuria, prioritising those with a higher risk of cancer for prompt investigation. Objective: To develop a prediction model for urinary tract cancer in patients referred with haematuria. Design, setting, and participants: A prospective observational study was conducted in 10 282 patients from 110 hospitals across 26 countries, aged ≥16 yr and referred to secondary care with haematuria. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The primary outcomes were the presence or absence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC], and renal cancer). Mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression was performed with site and country as random effects and clinically important patient-level candidate predictors, chosen a priori, as fixed effects. Predictors were selected primarily using clinical reasoning, in addition to backward stepwise selection. Calibration and discrimination were calculated, and bootstrap validation was performed to calculate optimism. Results and limitations: The unadjusted prevalence was 17.2% (n = 1763) for bladder cancer, 1.20% (n = 123) for UTUC, and 1.00% (n = 103) for renal cancer. The final model included predictors of increased risk (visible haematuria, age, smoking history, male sex, and family history) and reduced risk (previous haematuria investigations, urinary tract infection, dysuria/suprapubic pain, anticoagulation, catheter use, and previous pelvic radiotherapy). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.87). The model is limited to patients without previous urological malignancy. Conclusions: This cancer prediction model is the first to consider established and novel urinary tract cancer diagnostic markers. It can be used in secondary care for risk stratifying patients and aid the clinician's decision-making process in prioritising patients for investigation. Patient summary: We have developed a tool that uses a person's characteristics to determine the risk of cancer if that person develops blood in the urine (haematuria). This can be used to help prioritise patients for further investigation.noneopenKhadhouri, Sinan; Gallagher, Kevin M.; MacKenzie, Kenneth R.; Shah, Taimur T.; Gao, Chuanyu; Moore, Sacha; Zimmermann, Eleanor F.; Edison, Eric; Jefferies, Matthew; Nambiar, Arjun; Anbarasan, Thineskrishna; Mannas, Miles P.; Lee, Taeweon; Marra, Giancarlo; Gómez Rivas, Juan; Marcq, Gautier; Assmus, Mark A.; Uçar, Taha; Claps, Francesco; Boltri, Matteo; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Burnhope, Tara; Nkwam, Nkwam; Austin, Tomas; Boxall, Nicholas E.; Downey, Alison P.; Sukhu, Troy A.; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rai, Sonpreet; Chin, Yew-Fung; Moore, Madeline; Drake, Tamsin; Green, James S.A.; Goulao, Beatriz; MacLennan, Graeme; Nielsen, Matthew; McGrath, John S.; Kasivisvanathan, Veeru; Chaudry, Aasem; Sharma, Abhishek; Bennett, Adam; Ahmad, Adnan; Abroaf, Ahmed; Suliman, Ahmed Musa; Lloyd, Aimee; McKay, Alastair; Wong, Albert; Silva, Alberto; Schneider, Alexandre; MacKay, Alison; Knight, Allen; Grigorakis, Alkiviadis; Bdesha, Amar; Nagle, Amy; Cebola, Ana; Dhanasekaran, Ananda Kumar; Kondža, Andraž; Barcelos, André; Galosi, Andrea Benedetto; Ebur, Andrea; Minervini, Andrea; Russell, Andrew; Webb, Andrew; de Jalón, Ángel García; Desai, Ankit; Czech, Anna Katarzyna; Mainwaring, Anna; Adimonye, Anthony; Das, Arighno; Figueiredo, Arnaldo; Villers, Arnauld; Leminski, Artur; Chippagiri, Arvinda; Lal, Asim Ahmed; Yıldırım, Asıf; Voulgaris, Athanasios Marios; Uzan, Audrey; Oo, Aye Moh Moh; Younis, Ayman; Zelhof, Bachar; Mukhtar, Bashir; Ayres, Ben; Challacombe, Ben; Sherwood, Benedict; Ristau, Benjamin; Lai, Billy; Nellensteijn, Brechtje; Schreiter, Brielle; Trombetta, Carlo; Dowling, Catherine; Hobbs, Catherine; Benitez, Cayo Augusto Estigarribia; Lebacle, Cédric; Ho, Cherrie Wing Yin; Ng, Chi-Fai; Mount, Chloe; Lam, Chon Meng; Blick, Chris; Brown, Christian; Gallegos, Christopher; Higgs, Claire; Browne, Clíodhna; McCann, Conor; Plaza Alonso, Cristina; Beder, Daniel; Cohen, Daniel; Gordon, Daniel; Wilby, Daniel; Gordon, Danny; Hrouda, David; Lau, David Hua Wu; Karsza, Dávid; Mak, David; Martin-Way, David; Suthaharan, Denula; Patel, Dhruv; Carrion, Diego M; Nyanhongo, Donald; Bass, Edward; Mains, Edward; Chau, Edwin; Canelon Castillo, Elba; Day, Elizabeth; Desouky, Elsayed; Gaines, Emily; Papworth, Emma; Yuruk, Emrah; Kilic, Enes; Dinneen, Eoin; Palagonia, Erika; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Khawaja, Faizan; Cimarra, Fernando; Bardet, Florian; Kum, Francesca; Peters, Francesca; Kovács, Gábor; Tanasescu, Geroge; Hellawell, Giles; Tasso, Giovanni; Lam, Gitte; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Pizzuto, Giuseppe; Lenart, Gordan; MacLennan, Graeme; Özgür, Günal; Bi, Hai; Lyons, Hannah; Warren, Hannah; Ahmed, Hashim; Simpson, Helen; Burden, Helena; Gresty, Helena; Rios Pita, Hernado; Clarke, Holly; Serag, Hosam; Kynaston, Howard; Crawford-Smith, Hugh; Mostafid, Hugh; Otaola-Arca, Hugo; Koo, Hui Fen; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ouzaid, Idir; Puche-Sanz, Ignacio; Tomašković, Igor; Tinay, Ilker; Sahibzada, Iqbal; Thangasamy, Isaac; Cadena, Iván Revelo; Irani, Jacques; Udzik, Jakub; Brittain, James; Catto, James; Green, James; Tweedle, James; Hernando, Jamie Borrego; Leask, Jamie; Kalsi, Jas; Frankel, Jason; Toniolo, Jason; Raman, Jay D.; Courcier, Jean; Kumaradeevan, Jeevan; Clark, Jennifer; Jones, Jennifer; Teoh, Jeremy Yuen-Chun; Iacovou, John; Kelly, John; Selph, John P.; Aning, Jonathan; Deeks, Jon; Cobley, Jonathan; Olivier, Jonathan; Maw, Jonny; Herranz-Yagüe, José Antonio; Nolazco, Jose Ignacio; Cózar-Olmo, Jose Manuel; Bagley, Joseph; Jelski, Joseph; Norris, Joseph; Testa, Joseph; Meeks, Joshua; Hernandez, Juan; Vásquez, Juan Luis; Randhawa, Karen; Dhera, Karishma; Gronostaj, Katarzyna; Houlton, Kathleen; Lehman, Kathleen; Gillams, Kathryn; Adasonla, Kelvin; Brown, Kevin; Murtagh, Kevin; Mistry, Kiki; Davenport, Kim; Kitamura, Kosuke; Derbyshire, Laura; Clarke, Laurence; Morton, Lawrie; Martinez, Levin; Goldsmith, Louise; Paramore, Louise; Cormier, Luc; Dell'Atti, Lucio; Simmons, Lucy; Martinez-Piñeiro, Luis; Rico, Luis; Chan, Luke; Forster, Luke; Ma, Lulin; Moore, Madeline; Gallego, Maria Camacho; Freire, Maria José; Emberton, Mark; Feneley, Mark; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rivero, Marta Viridiana Muñoz; Pirša, Matea; Tallè, Matteo; Crockett, Matthew; Liew, Matthew; Trail, Matthew; Peters, Max; Cooper, Meghan; Kulkarni, Meghana; Ager, Michael; He, Ming; Li, Mo; Omran Breish, Mohamed; Tarin, Mohamed; Aldiwani, Mohammed; Matanhelia, Mudit; Pasha, Muhammad; Akalın, Mustafa Kaan; Abdullah, Nasreen; Hale, Nathan; Gadiyar, Neha; Kocher, Neil; Bullock, Nicholas; Campain, Nicholas; Pavan, Nicola; Al-Ibraheem, Nihad; Bhatt, Nikita; Bedi, Nishant; Shrotri, Nitin; Lobo, Niyati; Balderas, Olga; Kouli, Omar; Capoun, Otakar; Oteo Manjavacas, Pablo; Gontero, Paolo; Mariappan, Paramananthan; Marchiñena, Patricio Garcia; Erotocritou, Paul; Sweeney, Paul; Planelles, Paula; Acher, Peter; Black, Peter C.; Osei-Bonsu, Peter K; Østergren, Peter; Smith, Peter; Willemse, Peter-Paul Michiel; Chlosta, Piotr L.; Ul Ain, Qurrat; Barratt, Rachel; Esler, Rachel; Khalid, Raihan; Hsu, Ray; Stamirowski, Remigiusz; Mangat, Reshma; Cruz, Ricardo; Ellis, Ricky; Adams, Robert; Hessell, Robert; Oomen, Robert J.A.; McConkey, Robert; Ritchie, Robert; Jarimba, Roberto; Chahal, Rohit; Andres, Rosado Mario; Hawkins, Rosalyn; David, Rotimi; Manecksha, Rustom P.; Agrawal, Sachin; Hamid, Syed Sami; Deem, Samuel; Goonewardene, Sanchia; Swami, Satchi Kuchibhotla; Hori, Satoshi; Khan, Shahid; Mohammud Inder, Shakeel; Sangaralingam, Shanthi; Marathe, Shekhar; Raveenthiran, Sheliyan; Horie, Shigeo; Sengupta, Shomik; Parson, Sian; Parker, Sidney; Hawlina, Simon; Williams, Simon; Mazzoli, Simone; Grzegorz Kata, Slawomir; Pinheiro Lopes, Sofia; Ramos, Sónia; Rai, Sonpreet; Rintoul-Hoad, Sophie; O'Meara, Sorcha; Morris, Steve; Turner, Stacey; Venturini, Stefano; Almpanis, Stephanos; Joniau, Steven; Jain, Sunjay; Mallett, Susan; Nikles, Sven; Shahzad, null; Yan, Sylvia; Lee, Taeweon; Uçar, Taha; Drake, Tamsin; Toma, Tarq; Cabañuz Plo, Teresa; Bonnin, Thierry; Muilwijk, Tim; Wollin, Tim; Chu, Timothy Shun Man; Appanna, Timson; Brophy, Tom; Ellul, Tom; Austin, Tomas; Smrkolj, Tomaž; Rowe, Tracey; Sukhu, Troy; Patel, Trushar; Garg, Tullika; Çaşkurlu, Turhan; Bele, Uros; Haroon, Usman; Crespo-Atín, Víctor; Parejo Cortes, Victor; Capapé Poves, Victoria; Gnanapragasam, Vincent; Gauhar, Vineet; During, Vinnie; Kumar, Vivek; Fiala, Vojtech; Mahmalji, Wasim; Lam, Wayne; Fung Chin, Yew; Filtekin, Yigit; Chyn Phan, Yih; Ibrahim, Youssed; Glaser, Zachary A; Abiddin, Zainal Adwin; Qin, Zijian; Zotter, Zsuzsanna; Zainuddin, ZulkifliKhadhouri, Sinan; Gallagher, Kevin M.; Mackenzie, Kenneth R.; Shah, Taimur T.; Gao, Chuanyu; Moore, Sacha; Zimmermann, Eleanor F.; Edison, Eric; Jefferies, Matthew; Nambiar, Arjun; Anbarasan, Thineskrishna; Mannas, Miles P.; Lee, Taeweon; Marra, Giancarlo; Gómez Rivas, Juan; Marcq, Gautier; Assmus, Mark A.; Uçar, Taha; Claps, Francesco; Boltri, Matteo; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Burnhope, Tara; Nkwam, Nkwam; Austin, Tomas; Boxall, Nicholas E.; Downey, Alison P.; Sukhu, Troy A.; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rai, Sonpreet; Chin, Yew-Fung; Moore, Madeline; Drake, Tamsin; Green, James S. A.; Goulao, Beatriz; Maclennan, Graeme; Nielsen, Matthew; Mcgrath, John S.; Kasivisvanathan, Veeru; Chaudry, Aasem; Sharma, Abhishek; Bennett, Adam; Ahmad, Adnan; Abroaf, Ahmed; Suliman, Ahmed Musa; Lloyd, Aimee; Mckay, Alastair; Wong, Albert; Silva, Alberto; Schneider, Alexandre; Mackay, Alison; Knight, Allen; Grigorakis, Alkiviadis; Bdesha, Amar; Nagle, Amy; Cebola, Ana; Dhanasekaran, Ananda Kumar; Kondža, Andraž; Barcelos, André; Galosi, Andrea Benedetto; Ebur, Andrea; Minervini, Andrea; Russell, Andrew; Webb, Andrew; de Jalón, Ángel García; Desai, Ankit; Czech, Anna Katarzyna; Mainwaring, Anna; Adimonye, Anthony; Das, Arighno; Figueiredo, Arnaldo; Villers, Arnauld; Leminski, Artur; Chippagiri, Arvinda; Lal, Asim Ahmed; Yıldırım, Asıf; Voulgaris, Athanasios Marios; Uzan, Audrey; Oo, Aye Moh Moh; Younis, Ayman; Zelhof, Bachar; Mukhtar, Bashir; Ayres, Ben; Challacombe, Ben; Sherwood, Benedict; Ristau, Benjamin; Lai, Billy; Nellensteijn, Brechtje; Schreiter, Brielle; Trombetta, Carlo; Dowling, Catherine; Hobbs, Catherine; Benitez, Cayo Augusto Estigarribia; Lebacle, Cédric; Ho, Cherrie Wing Yin; Ng, Chi-Fai; Mount, Chloe; Lam, Chon Meng; Blick, Chris; Brown, Christian; Gallegos, Christopher; Higgs, Claire; Browne, Clíodhna; Mccann, Conor; Plaza Alonso, Cristina; Beder, Daniel; Cohen, Daniel; Gordon, Daniel; Wilby, Daniel; Gordon, Danny; Hrouda, David; Lau, David Hua Wu; Karsza, Dávid; Mak, David; Martin-Way, David; Suthaharan, Denula; Patel, Dhruv; Carrion, Diego M; Nyanhongo, Donald; Bass, Edward; Mains, Edward; Chau, Edwin; Canelon Castillo, Elba; Day, Elizabeth; Desouky, Elsayed; Gaines, Emily; Papworth, Emma; Yuruk, Emrah; Kilic, Enes; Dinneen, Eoin; Palagonia, Erika; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Khawaja, Faizan; Cimarra, Fernando; Bardet, Florian; Kum, Francesca; Peters, Francesca; Kovács, Gábor; Tanasescu, Geroge; Hellawell, Giles; Tasso, Giovanni; Lam, Gitte; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Pizzuto, Giuseppe; Lenart, Gordan; Maclennan, Graeme; Özgür, Günal; Bi, Hai; Lyons, Hannah; Warren, Hannah; Ahmed, Hashim; Simpson, Helen; Burden, Helena; Gresty, Helena; Rios Pita, Hernado; Clarke, Holly; Serag, Hosam; Kynaston, Howard; Crawford-Smith, Hugh; Mostafid, Hugh; Otaola-Arca, Hugo; Koo, Hui Fen; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ouzaid, Idir; Puche-Sanz, Ignacio; Tomašković, Igor; Tinay, Ilker; Sahibzada, Iqbal; Thangasamy, Isaac; Cadena, Iván Revelo; Irani, Jacques; Udzik, Jakub; Brittain, James; Catto, James; Green, James; Tweedle, James; Hernando, Jamie Borrego; Leask, Jamie; Kalsi, Jas; Frankel, Jason; Toniolo, Jason; Raman, Jay D.; Courcier, Jean; Kumaradeevan, Jeevan; Clark, Jennifer; Jones, Jennifer; Teoh, Jeremy Yuen-Chun; Iacovou, John; Kelly, John; Selph, John P.; Aning, Jonathan; Deeks, Jon; Cobley, Jonathan; Olivier, Jonathan; Maw, Jonny; Herranz-Yagüe, José Antonio; Nolazco, Jose Ignacio; Cózar-Olmo, Jose Manuel; Bagley, Joseph; Jelski, Joseph; Norris, Joseph; Testa, Joseph; Meeks, Joshua; Hernandez, Juan; Vásquez, Juan Luis; Randhawa, Karen; Dhera, Karishma; Gronostaj, Katarzyna; Houlton, Kathleen; Lehman, Kathleen; Gillams, Kathryn; Adasonla, Kelvin; Brown, Kevin; Murtagh, Kevin; Mistry, Kiki; Davenport, Kim; Kitamura, Kosuke; Derbyshire, Laura; Clarke, Laurence; Morton, Lawrie; Martinez, Levin; Goldsmith, Louise; Paramore, Louise; Cormier, Luc; Dell'Atti, Lucio; Simmons, Lucy; Martinez-Piñeiro, Luis; Rico, Luis; Chan, Luke; Forster, Luke; Ma, Lulin; Moore, Madeline; Gallego, Maria Camacho; Freire, Maria José; Emberton, Mark; Feneley, Mark; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rivero, Marta Viridiana Muñoz; Pirša, Matea; Tallè, Matteo; Crockett, Matthew; Liew, Matthew; Trail, Matthew; Peters, Max; Cooper, Meghan; Kulkarni, Meghana; Ager, Michael; He, Ming; Li, Mo; Omran Breish, Mohamed; Tarin, Mohamed; Aldiwani, Mohammed; Matanhelia, Mudit; Pasha, Muhammad; Akalın, Mustafa Kaan; Abdullah, Nasreen; Hale, Nathan; Gadiyar, Neha; Kocher, Neil; Bullock, Nicholas; Campain, Nicholas; Pavan, Nicola; Al-Ibraheem, Nihad; Bhatt, Nikita; Bedi, Nishant; Shrotri, Nitin; Lobo, Niyati; Balderas, Olga; Kouli, Omar; Capoun, Otakar; Oteo Manjavacas, Pablo; Gontero, Paolo; Mariappan, Paramananthan; Marchiñena, Patricio Garcia; Erotocritou, Paul; Sweeney, Paul; Planelles, Paula; Acher, Peter; Black, Peter C.; Osei-Bonsu, Peter K; Østergren, Peter; Smith, Peter; Willemse, Peter-Paul Michiel; Chlosta, Piotr L.; Ul Ain, Qurrat; Barratt, Rachel; Esler, Rachel; Khalid, Raihan; Hsu, Ray; Stamirowski, Remigiusz; Mangat, Reshma; Cruz, Ricardo; Ellis, Ricky; Adams, Robert; Hessell, Robert; Oomen, Robert J. A.; Mcconkey, Robert; Ritchie, Robert; Jarimba, Roberto; Chahal, Rohit; Andres, Rosado Mario; Hawkins, Rosalyn; David, Rotimi; Manecksha, Rustom P.; Agrawal, Sachin; Hamid, Syed Sami; Deem, Samuel; Goonewardene, Sanchia; Swami, Satchi Kuchibhotla; Hori, Satoshi; Khan, Shahid; Mohammud Inder, Shakeel; Sangaralingam, Shanthi; Marathe, Shekhar; Raveenthiran, Sheliyan; Horie, Shigeo; Sengupta, Shomik; Parson, Sian; Parker, Sidney; Hawlina, Simon; Williams, Simon; Mazzoli, Simone; Grzegorz Kata, Slawomir; Pinheiro Lopes, Sofia; Ramos, Sónia; Rai, Sonpreet; Rintoul-Hoad, Sophie; O'Meara, Sorcha; Morris, Steve; Turner, Stacey; Venturini, Stefano; Almpanis, Stephanos; Joniau, Steven; Jain, Sunjay; Mallett, Susan; Nikles, Sven; Shahzad, Null; Yan, Sylvia; Lee, Taeweon; Uçar, Taha; Drake, Tamsin; Toma, Tarq; Cabañuz Plo, Teresa; Bonnin, Thierry; Muilwijk, Tim; Wollin, Tim; Chu, Timothy Shun Man; Appanna, Timson; Brophy, Tom; Ellul, Tom; Austin, Tomas; Smrkolj, Tomaž; Rowe, Tracey; Sukhu, Troy; Patel, Trushar; Garg, Tullika; Çaşkurlu, Turhan; Bele, Uros; Haroon, Usman; Crespo-Atín, Víctor; Parejo Cortes, Victor; Capapé Poves, Victoria; Gnanapragasam, Vincent; Gauhar, Vineet; During, Vinnie; Kumar, Vivek; Fiala, Vojtech; Mahmalji, Wasim; Lam, Wayne; Fung Chin, Yew; Filtekin, Yigit; Chyn Phan, Yih; Ibrahim, Youssed; Glaser, Zachary A; Abiddin, Zainal Adwin; Qin, Zijian; Zotter, Zsuzsanna; Zainuddin, Zulkifl

Effects of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery: an international prospective cohort study an international prospective cohort study

We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care