Determinants and timing of dropping out decisions: evidence from the UK FE sector

This paper investigates whether the hazard of dropping out for both male and female students changes over the duration of study. Using duration modelling techniques wend a certain degree of non-monotonic duration dependence for both males and females. However this pattern for female students aiming at high level qualifications is sensitive to attempts to control for unobserved heterogeneity. For these students the extended models show a flattened hazard function, suggesting that the hazard is basically constant over time. For males introducing controls for unobserved heterogeneity does not change the pattern of the duration dependence, suggesting that they might be at higher risk of dropping out during the first semester of their studies. In addition, we examine variations in drop out hazard patterns for students enrolled on courses which confer different qualification levels. We provide evidence of distinct hazard patterns between students pursuing 'high level' and 'low level' qualifications

The effect of college mergers on student dropout behaviour:evidence from the UK

This paper investigates the effect of college merger on the probability of students dropping out of college. In addition we assess whether this effect persists over time and whether there is variation in the risk of drop out by programme area. To answer these questions we use a large administrative data set relating to the population of students enrolled in the further education sector for multiple cohorts of students (i.e. 2002-03 to 2007-08 cohorts). We employ the propensity score matching methods and difference-in-differences methods to overcome the fundamental evaluation problem and to remove the effect of unobserved student (and college) heterogeneity. Our evidence suggests that the risk of drop out has varied over time (by cohort), reducing the risk by about 1-2 percentage points for earlier cohorts, which contrasts with positive effects for later cohorts, which were as high as 5 percentage points. We also show that the effects of merger persisted for 1-2 years and that there was variation in the effect of a merger by programme area. Our results raise important implications for policy makers insofar as mergers cannot be unanimously assumed to be either negative or positive. The effect probably varies with the nature of the merger (voluntary versus involuntary) and by programme area regardless of the type of merger

An econometric analysis of the determinants of student dropout behavior: the case of further education sector in England

Questo lavoro analizza le determinanti dell’abbandono scolastico nel settore della Further Education in Inghilterra. In particolare, il primo capitolo descrive i modelli teorici per l’analisi dell’abbandono scolastico e fornisce una revisione della letteratura sulle principali determinanti dell’abbandono scolastico. Il secondo capitolo si concentra sugli effetti della dimensione delle scuole e delle aree di insegnamento sulla probabilita’ di abbandono parziale e totale. Introduce il concetto di abbandono parziale, dimostrando che gli studenti che hanno abbandonato lo studio di alcune ma non tutte le materie a cui si erano iscritti reagiscono a cambiamenti nella dimensione delle scuole e delle aree di insegnamento in maniera simile agli studenti che abbandonano completamente gli studi. Il terzo capitolo analizza l’effetto causale dell’iscrizione a istituzioni di Further Education che sono state recentemente fuse sulla probabilita’ di non completare gli studi. Utilizziamo la tecnica del propensity score matching e controlliamo la qualita’ del matching e la sensibilita’ delle stime al fallimento dell’assunzione di unconfoundedness. I nostri risultati dimostrano che iscriversi ad una scuola oggetto di fusione riduce la probabilita’ di abbandonale gli studi.This work analyses the determinants of dropout behavior in the Further Education sector in England. More specifically, the first chapter describe the theoretical framework for the analysis of student withdrawal and provides a review of the literature on the main determinants of dropout behavior. The second chapter focuses on the effect of college and programme area size on the probability of dropping out both partially and completely. It introduces the concept of partial dropout showing that students that dropped out of some modules but not all the ones they were enrolled on react to changes in college and programme area size similarly to the ones that dropped out completely. The third chapter analyses the causal effect of enrolling in a recently merged Further Education college on the probability of dropping out. We employ the propensity score matching approach and check the quality of our matching and the sensitivity of the estimates to the failure of the unconfoundedness assumption. Our findings show that enrolling in a merged college reduces the probability of dropping out

The Effect of College Acquisitions and Mergers on Student Dropout Behaviour:Evidence from the UK

We investigate the effect of college acquisitions on the probability of students dropping out of college. Using administrative data for the further education sector, which covers multiple cohorts, we estimate matching models and combine them with difference-in-differences methods to remove the effects of unobserved student and college heterogeneity. Overall our findings show that acquisitions reduce the probability of dropout by 0.01 percentage points, but this varies in magnitude and direction over time. In general, positive effects of acquisitions on drop out behaviour tend to be small (e.g. 0.001 for acquisitions in 2004) and dissipate over time, whereas negative effects persist and tend to increase in magnitude over time (e.g. -0.05 one year later and -0.07 two years later). We discuss the implications for policy and practice in the sector, as well as suggesting a need for similar analyses in other education sectors, such as primary and secondary schooling