Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures.

For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates

Mediation analysis of gestational age, congenital heart defects, and infant birth-weight

Background In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight. Methods We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods. Results There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) grams, respectively; the mean gestational age was 38.9 (SD = 2.7) and 39.6 (SD = 2.2) weeks, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the estimated mediated effect by gestational age was 113.5 grams (95% CI, 92.4–134.2) and the mediation proportion was 40.7% (95% CI, 34.7%–46.6%), using the bootstrap approach. Conclusions Gestational age may account for about 41% of the overall effect of heart defects on reduced infant birth-weight. Improved prenatal care and other public health efforts that promote full term delivery, particularly targeting high-risk families and mothers known to be carrying a fetus with CHD, may therefore be expected to improve the birth-weight of these infants and their long term health

Mediation analysis of gestational age, congenital heart defects, and infant birth-weight

Abstract Background In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight. Methods We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods. Results There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) grams, respectively; the mean gestational age was 38.9 (SD = 2.7) and 39.6 (SD = 2.2) weeks, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the estimated mediated effect by gestational age was 113.5 grams (95% CI, 92.4–134.2) and the mediation proportion was 40.7% (95% CI, 34.7%–46.6%), using the bootstrap approach. Conclusions Gestational age may account for about 41% of the overall effect of heart defects on reduced infant birth-weight. Improved prenatal care and other public health efforts that promote full term delivery, particularly targeting high-risk families and mothers known to be carrying a fetus with CHD, may therefore be expected to improve the birth-weight of these infants and their long term health

Progression of Electrocardiographic Abnormalities in Type 1 Diabetes During 16 Years of Follow‐up: The Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) Study

Background The electrocardiogram (ECG) is an objective tool for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Methods and Results We evaluated distribution of ECG abnormalities and risk factors for developing new abnormalities in 1314 patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) from the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study. Annual ECGs were centrally read. ECG abnormalities were classified as major and minor according to the Minnesota ECG Classification. At EDIC year 1 (baseline), 356 (27.1%) of the participants had at least 1 ECG abnormality (major or minor) whereas 26 (2%) had at least one major abnormality. During 16 years of follow‐up, 1016 (77.3%) participants developed at least 1 new ECG abnormality (major or minor), whereas 172 (13.1%) developed at least 1 new major abnormality. Independent risk factors for developing new major ECG abnormalities were: age, current smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and higher glycosylated hemoglobin (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 1.04 [1.02–1.06] per 1‐year increase, 1.75 [1.22–2.53], 1.03 [1.01–1.05] per 1 mm Hg increase, and 1.16 [1.04–1.29] per 10% increase, respectively). Independent risk factors for developing any new ECG abnormalities (major or minor) were age and systolic blood pressure (HR [95% CI]: 1.02 [1.01–1.03] per 1‐year increase and 1.01 [1.00–1.02] per 1 mm Hg increase, respectively). Conclusions New ECG abnormalities commonly occur in the course of T1D, consistent with the recognized increasing risk for CVD as patients age. Advanced age, increased systolic blood pressure, smoking, and higher HbA1c are independent risk factor for developing major ECG abnormalities, which underscores the importance of tight glucose control in T1D in addition to management of common CVD risk factors

Significance of Epicardial and Intrathoracic Adipose Tissue Volume among Type 1 Diabetes Patients in the DCCT/EDIC: A Pilot Study.

Introduction Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) patients are at increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). This pilot study sought to evaluate the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and intra-thoracic adipose tissue (IAT) volumes and cardio-metabolic risk factors in T1DM. Method EAT/IAT volumes in 100 patients, underwent non-contrast cardiac computed tomography in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial /Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study were measured by a certified reader. Fat was defined as pixels’ density of -30 to -190 Hounsfield Unit. The associations were assessed using–Pearson partial correlation and linear regression models adjusted for gender and age with inverse probability sample weighting. Results The weighted mean age was 43 years (range 32–57) and 53% were male. Adjusted for gender, Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between age and EAT/IAT volumes (both p Conclusion T1DM patients with greater BMI, WTH ratio, weighted HbA1c level, triglyceride level and AER≥300/ESRD had significantly larger EAT/IAT volumes. Larger sample size studies are recommended to evaluate independency

Biomarkers of tubulointerstitial damage and function in type 1 diabetes

Objective To evaluate biomarkers of renal tubulointerstitial damage and function in type 1 diabetes with and without diabetic kidney disease. Research design and methods Cross-sectional case-control study of Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Study participants. Cases (N=43) had incident persistent estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) \u3c60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with urinary albumin excretion \u3e300 mg/24 hour. Controls (N=43) had persistent eGFR \u3e90 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin excretion \u3c30 mg/24 hour. Urinary and plasma biomarkers reflecting tubular injury, inflammation, fibrosis, secretion, and synthetic function were measured from stored specimens collected at the first study visit with reduced eGFR (for case participants) or the corresponding study year (for control participants). Results Mean (SD) age was 51 (9) and 50 (8) years for case and control participants, and mean (SD) duration of diabetes was 30 (6) and 30 (5) years, respectively. Mean (SD) eGFR was 39 (14) and 103 (9) mL/min/1.73 m2 for case and control participants, and mean (SD) albumin excretion rate was 1978 (2914) and 10 (7) mg/day, respectively. Comparing cases with controls, significant differences were observed in each measured biomarker, including urine epidermal growth factor (mean 5.3 vs 21.2 μg/g creatinine for case vs control participants, respectively), urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (596 vs 123 ng/g creatinine), urine galectin-3 (168 vs 52 μg/g creatinine), plasma soluble tubular necrosis factor receptor-1 (3695 vs 1022 pg/mL), plasma galectin-3 (21.3 vs 11.0 ng/mL), urinary clearances of hippurate (70 vs 167 mL/min) and cinnamoylglycine (77 vs 317 mL/min), and plasma arginine-citrulline ratio (5.6 vs 7.7 μg/μg), each P\u3c0.001. Conclusions Marked abnormalities in biomarkers of kidney tubular injury, inflammation, fibrosis, secretion, and synthetic function accompany reduced eGFR and albuminuria in type 1 diabetes. Trial registration number NCT00360893, NCT00360815

Utility of using electrocardiogram measures of heart rate variability as a measure of cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy in type 1 diabetes patients

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN) is a predictor of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Cardiovascular reflex tests (CARTs) are the gold standard for the diagnosis of CAN, but might not be feasible in large research cohorts or in clinical care. We investigated whether measures of heart rate variability obtained from standard electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings provide a reliable measure of CAN. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Standardized CARTs (R-R response to paced breathing, Valsalva, postural changes) and digitized 12-lead resting ECGs were obtained concomitantly in Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications participants (n = 311). Standard deviation of normally conducted R-R intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences between normal-to-normal R-R intervals (rMSSD) were measured from ECG. Sensitivity, specificity, probability of correct classification and Kappa statistics evaluated the agreement between ECG-derived CAN and CARTs-defined CAN. RESULTS: Participants with CARTs-defined CAN had significantly lower SDNN and rMSSD compared with those without CAN (P \u3c 0.001). The optimal cut-off points of ECG-derived CAN were \u3c17.13 and \u3c24.94 ms for SDNN and rMSSD, respectively. SDNN plays a dominant role in defining CAN, with an area under the curve of 0.73, indicating fair test performance. The Kappa statistic for SDNN was 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.30-0.51) for the optimal cut-off point, showing fair agreement with CARTs-defined CAN. Combining SDNN and rMSSD optimal cut-off points does not provide additional predictive power for CAN. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses are the first to show the agreement between indices of heart rate variability derived from ECGs and the gold standard CARTs, thus supporting potential use as a measure of CAN in clinical research and clinical care

Association of Glycemic Variability in Type 1 Diabetes With Progression of Microvascular Outcomes in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial

OBJECTIVE The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) demonstrated the beneficial effects of intensive versus conventional therapy on the development and progression of microvascular complications of type 1 diabetes. These beneficial effects were almost completely explained by the difference between groups in the levels of HbA1c, which in turn were associated with the risk of these complications. We assessed the association of glucose variability within and between quarterly 7-point glucose profiles with the development and progression of retinopathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy during the DCCT. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Measures of variability included the within-day and updated mean (over time) of the SD, mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE), and M-value, and the longitudinal within-day, between-day, and total variances. Imputation methods filled in the 16.3% of expected glucose values that were missing. RESULTS Cox proportional hazards models assessed the association of each measure of glycemic variation, as a time-dependent covariate, with the risk of retinopathy and nephropathy, and a longitudinal logistic regression model did likewise for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy. Adjusted for mean blood glucose, no measure of within-day variability was associated with any outcome. Only the longitudinal mean M-value (over time) was significantly associated with microalbuminuria when adjusted for the longitudinal mean blood glucose and corrected for multiple tests using the Holm procedure. CONCLUSIONS Overall, within-day glycemic variability, as determined from quarterly glucose profiles, does not play an apparent role in the development of microvascular complications beyond the influence of the mean glucose

Albuminuria Changes and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes: The DCCT/EDIC Study.

Background and objectives In trials of people with type 2 diabetes, albuminuria reduction with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors is associated with lower risks of cardiovascular events and CKD progression. We tested whether progression or remission of microalbuminuria is associated with cardiovascular and renal risk in a well characterized cohort of type 1 diabetes. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We studied 1441 participants in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications study. Albumin excretion rate (AER) was quantified annually or biennially for up to 30 years. For each participant, albuminuria status was defined over time as normoalbuminuria (AER continuously \u3c30 mg/d), sustained microalbuminuria (AER, 30–299 mg/d on two consecutive visits), macroalbuminuria (AER≥300 mg/d), or remitted microalbuminuria (transition from sustained microalbuminuria to AER\u3c30 mg/d on two consecutive visits). We tested associations of time-updated albuminuria status with adjudicated clinical cardiovascular events, the development of reduced GFR (\u3c60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 on two consecutive visits), and subclinical cardiovascular disease. Results At least one cardiovascular event occurred in 184 participants, and 98 participants developed reduced eGFR. Compared with normoalbuminuria, sustained microalbuminuria, remitted microalbuminuria, and macroalbuminuria were each associated with higher risk of cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]: 1.79 [1.13 to 2.85], 2.62 [1.68 to 4.07], and 2.65 [1.68 to 4.19], respectively) and reduced eGFR (adjusted HRs [95% CIs], 5.26 [2.43 to 11.41], 4.36 [1.80 to 10.57], and 54.35 [30.79 to 95.94], respectively). Compared with sustained microalbuminuria, remission to normoalbuminuria was not associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events (adjusted HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.68 to 2.59) or reduced eGFR (adjusted HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 0.56 to 5.49). Compared with normoalbuminuria, sustained microalbuminuria, remitted microalbuminuria, and macroalbuminuria were associated with greater carotid intima-media thickness, and macroalbuminuria was associated with a greater degree of coronary artery calcification. Conclusions In type 1 diabetes, microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria are associated with higher risks of cardiovascular disease and reduced eGFR, but achieving a remission of established microalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria does not appear to improve outcomes