MEDIUM-TERM CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE MONTHLY EARNINGS

The paper represents a study of the labour market functionality through the employment degree and how much of the employment improvement is reflected in the wage revenues. The study is based on the analysis and forecast of the earnings structure by branches and regions and also by property forms, being structured in 4 chapters. Within the study the earning is analyzed starting from two reasons: first, the wage synthetically reflects the structural evolution of the labour market and, second, the wage conditions and influences the employment possibilities. An important part of the study is represented by the analysis of the correlation between employment and earnings, marking out some features. First, 2002-2006 represented the period with structural changes in employment, the wages evolution being independent of the economic context or of the labour market imbalances. Second, in regional and county profile the correlation between the employment structure and the evolution of the earnings is more lax than the national economy level. If for the regions the main explanation could be the structural homogeneity of the regional economies, at county level the determinant element is the economic gap. In the first years of the actual development cycle, even if the intercounty economic gaps have maintained or deepened, the improvement of the employment has adequately been reflected in the increase in the average wage revenues. The paper also presents some perspectives on the earnings structure, marking out the fact that until 2010 the gaps between regions – from the net average earnings point of view – will not significantly improve, but there will be created the conditions for a future decrease. This fact can be explained, on one hand, by the absorption of the community funds which will be more consistent after 2009 (it is about the project implementation, not the contract), and, on the other hand, because – in a first stage – the more developed areas will access easier the European funds, having resources and also project and implementation organization competences, and for the fund allocation national projects (transport, education infrastructure, etc.) will be important.Employment, Wages, Wage structure, Wage differential, Vacancies

MEDIUM-TERM CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE MONTHLY EARNINGS

The paper represents a study of the labour market functionality through the employment degree and how much of the employment improvement is reflected in the wage revenues. The study is based on the analysis and forecast of the earnings structure by branches and regions and also by property forms, being structured in 4 chapters. Within the study the earning is analyzed starting from two reasons: first, the wage synthetically reflects the structural evolution of the labour market and, second, the wage conditions and influences the employment possibilities. An important part of the study is represented by the analysis of the correlation between employment and earnings, marking out some features. First, 2002-2006 represented the period with structural changes in employment, the wages evolution being independent of the economic context or of the labour market imbalances. Second, in regional and county profile the correlation between the employment structure and the evolution of the earnings is more lax than the national economy level. If for the regions the main explanation could be the structural homogeneity of the regional economies, at county level the determinant element is the economic gap. In the first years of the actual development cycle, even if the intercounty economic gaps have maintained or deepened, the improvement of the employment has adequately been reflected in the increase in the average wage revenues. The paper also presents some perspectives on the earnings structure, marking out the fact that until 2010 the gaps between regions – from the net average earnings point of view – will not significantly improve, but there will be created the conditions for a future decrease. This fact can be explained, on one hand, by the absorption of the community funds which will be more consistent after 2009 (it is about the project implementation, not the contract), and, on the other hand, because – in a first stage – the more developed areas will access easier the European funds, having resources and also project and implementation organization competences, and for the fund allocation national projects (transport, education infrastructure, etc.) will be important

THE ELDERLY POPULATION ON THE LABOUR MARKET

The study presents the main characteristics for Romania regarding the labour market participation of the population in the context of the high employment of the aged population in the agriculture, linked to the lake of pension or any other form of social protection for the largest part of this social group. Through the analysis that this study is making, it emphasises the legislative problems and of statistical methodology of the Romanian environment by comparison to the European standards regarding the standard retirement age, which is different in the Romanian case from women (60) to men (65), while the European standards has an undifferentiated system for men and women, with an age of 65+

UNIT LABOR COST IN ROMANIA

The paper is meant to lead the way in the field of economic analysis in Romania, trying to evaluate by data the capacity of the Romanian economy to face the competition pressures from the Single European Market. Within the paper, the unit labor cost is approached as an indicator reflecting especially the competitiveness rather than measuring it. The methodological and calculation issues differentiate between the unit labor cost in nominal and real terms, emphasizing the conclusion that exceeding the compensation per employee (including the employer's social contribution) beyond labor productivity, in real terms leads to an increase in the unit labor cost and, finally, to a loss of competitiveness. In addition, the paper includes the forecast of the unit labor cost in Romania, which has been developed for the first time since 2005. Subsequently, the estimates have been updated for each stage of forecasting. In this way, having in view the expected trends for the indicators involved in the estimate, the final conclusion of the paper is to maintain competitiveness and the current account within sustainable limits, despite the disinflation process under way. The finding is all the more eloquent, as the EC autumn forecast underlines this issue.labor productivity, compensation of employees, employment, GDP, unit labor cost

Informal Economic Estimation Models at Macroeconomic Level. Some Theoretical and Methodologial Considerations

The analytical approach is conducted at the macroeconomic level and the problems that are discussed here come under the impact of the fiscal policy and the tax level on the macro stabilizing programs, the way it is approached in the literature and some of these models are presented here. In Romania’s case, the methodology of Dobrescu (1994, 1996) and Albu and the others (1998) is the most common methodology used, for the transition period, in order to estimate the impact that the grey economy has by comparison with the general economy dynamics and the relationship between the grey economy and the institutional approach (Daianu şi Albu, 1997). In the same time, there are some references are made to the detailed study on Laffer’s curve and its implications on the fiscal policy plans made by the Economic Forecast Institute in the CEPREMAP (Albu, 1995). Starting from the development of the previous theoretical model regarding the tax evasion in the grey economy using macroeconomics statistical data that are usually employed, in three sub-models, and through their combination, the authors build a general model.

Analysing drivers of and barriers to the sustainable development: hidden economy and hidden migration

The actual global crisis seems to influence negatively the sustainable development in EU countries. At least partially the informal economy escapes from the official registered GDP and hidden migration from the official demographic statistics. This can affect in a significant way the measurement of sustainable development and consequently policies in this field. Coming from general accepted findings of the theory, we concentrate on evaluating the reasons of agents to be involved in hidden economy and estimating the size of this part of economy. Today, there are evidences of a tendency to extended hidden migration together with an increasing official migration usually from eastern EU members to western countries. In a sense, hidden migration could be in relation with informal economy. Using some indirect procedures, we try to estimate the size of hidden migration and its impact on the official side of economy and its potential growth in the future. The main application of the developed methodology is in case of Romania.informal income; inactive population; emigration potential; hidden migration

Romania’s development level comparing with EU countries: The RGS (Relative Gap Scoring) Ranking Index

The main objective of Romania’s post-accession strategy stands for the convergence with the EU Member States. If the nominal convergence (low inflation rate, stability of the exchange and interest rates, contained public debt) seems more easily to be achieved, the real convergence is supposed to catch up structural gap, connected more or less to issues belonging to the development process approach. The study aims at comparative assessment of Romania’s development level within UE 27, proposing a composite index, called Relative Gap Scoring (RGS). This method is based on a scoring calculation depending on the quotient of each indicator level for a certain country and of the country’s ranked first for the respectively indicator, having the advantage to evidence the relative gaps and providing a synthetic image of their resultant. The RGS index has been constructed by the geometric aggregation of scoring resulted for 10 economic and social indicators, considered relevant for the prospective of real convergence. Examining Romania's position within the ranking of EU countries according to the RGS index, the study found that large gap of the current state of economic and social development of our country still remain. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that Romania stood at 42.5 percent of the EU average in 2007, while in relation to GDP per capita (PPS) at 40.4 percent, which reveals that, in terms of real convergence, the time horizon of catching up with EU countries could be shorter.Economic and Social Development; International Comparisons; Composite Indexes; Statistical Methods

THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2004). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations

THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations

THE "DOBRESCU" MACROMODEL OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION - YEARLY FORECAST*

The paper briefly presents the "Dobrescu" macromodel, the 2005 version, and the yearly forecast of the Romanian market economy computed on its basis. * (PHARE Programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission of Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet" - Romanian Center for Economic Policies, http://www.cnp.ro/site CNP.pdf. Published on the site Internet Securities Inc., ISI Emerging Markets, http://www.securities.com)macromodel, simulations, forecasting