A quantitative approach to behavioural analysis of drivers in highways using particle filtering

The analysis of the driving behaviour is a challenging area in transport that has applications in numerous fields ranging from highway design to micro-simulation and development of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). There has been evidence suggesting changes in the driving behaviour in response to changes in traffic conditions, and this is known as adaptive driving behaviour. Identifying these changes, the conditions under which they happen, and describing them in a systematic way would contribute greatly to the accuracy of micro-simulation and more importantly to the understanding of the traffic flow, and will therefore pave the way for introducing further improvements in the efficiency of the transport network. In this paper adaptive driving behaviour is linked to changes in the model parameters for a given car-following model. These changes are tracked using a dynamic system identification method, namely unscented particle filtering

Open tension free repair of inguinal hernias; the Lichtenstein technique

BACKGROUND: Recurrences have been a significant problem following hernia repair. Prosthetic materials have been increasingly used in hernia repair to prevent recurrences. Their use has been associated with several advantages, such as less postoperative pain, rapid recovery, low recurrence rates. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 540 tension-free inguinal hernia repairs were performed between August 1994 and December 1999 in 510 patients, using a polypropylene mesh (Lichtenstein technique). The main outcome measure was early and late morbidity and especially recurrence. RESULTS: Inguinal hernia was indirect in 55 % of cases (297 patients), direct in 30 % (162 patients) and of the pantaloon (mixed) type in 15 % (81 patients). Mean patient age was 53.7 years (range, 18 – 85). Follow-up was completed in 407 patients (80 %) by clinical examination or phone call. The median follow-up period was 3.8 years (range, 1 – 6 years). Seroma and hematoma formation requiring drainage was observed in 6 and 2 patients, respectively, while transient testicular swelling occurred in 5 patients. We have not observed acute infection or abscess formation related to the presence of the foreign body (mesh). In two patients, however, a delayed rejection of the mesh occurred 10 months and 4 years following surgery. There was one recurrence of the hernia (in one of these patients with late mesh rejection) (recurrence rate = 0.2 %). Postoperative neuralgia was observed in 5 patients (1 %). CONCLUSION: Lichtenstein tension-free mesh inguinal hernia repair is a simple, safe, comfortable, effective method, with extremely low early and late morbidity and remarkably low recurrence rate and therefore it is our preferred method for hernia repair since 1994

Testing the Credibility of Belgium's Exchange Rate Policy

This paper examines the credibility of the exchange rate policy pursued by the Belgian monetary authorities of pegging the Belgian franc to a narrow fluctuation band around the deutsche mark, in the context of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. Simple interest rate corridor analysis, based on the Belgian-German long-term interest rate differential and taking explicit account of the currency's position within its fluctuation band, appears to suggest that the hypothesis that long-run exchange rate credibility has been attained should be rejected, even though considerable progress has been made in this regard since the early 1980s. The paper proceeds to decompose the Belgian-German interest rate differential into a sovereign credit risk and an exchange rate risk component, by modeling inflationary expectations, and concludes that long-run exchange rate credibility cannot be rejected from 1990 onward.

Testing the Credibility of Belgium's Exchange Rate Policy

This paper examines the credibility of the exchange rate policy pursued by the Belgian monetary authorities of pegging the Belgian franc to a narrow fluctuation band around the deutsche mark, in the context of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. Simple interest rate corridor analysis, based on the Belgian-German long-term interest rate differential and taking explicit account of the currency’s position within its fluctuation band, would appear to suggest that the hypothesis that long-run exchange rate credibility has been attained should be rejected, even though considerable progress has been made in this regard since the early 1980s. The paper proceeds to decompose the Belgian-German interest rate differential into a sovereign credit risk and an exchange rate risk component, via the modelling of inflationary expectations, and concludes that long-run exchange rate credibility cannot be rejected from 1990 onwards.

Long-Term Trends in the Saving-Investment Balance and Persistent Current Account Surpluses in a Small Open Economy

This paper explores, from an investment-saving perspective, the factors underlying the persistent widening of the current account surplus in the Netherlands since the early 1980s. Standard intertemporal models, even appropriately extended to incorporate specific features of the Dutch economy, do not appear to fully account for this development. Accordingly, the paper focusses attention on the production side of the economy to gain further insight into the trends of the current account. Empirical evidence suggests that changes in relative factor prices and a relative demand shift toward non-tradable goods account for the bulk of the observed widening of the current account surplus. In turn, the impact of these factors on the current account appears to reflect both changes in factor proportions and deviations from perfect competition in the Dutch sheltered sector.

Aspects of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Under Exchange Rate Targeting

This paper examines monetary transmission in France using the vector autoregression methodology. Interest rates are decomposed into external and domestic components, and a nonrecursive contemporaneous structure is used to identify the system. Innovations in the external component are found to have a significant impact on economic activity, while innovations in the domestic premium have a statistically negligible effect, suggesting that interest rate hikes in defense of the franc may have had a smaller impact on the economy than usually thought. The paper also discusses some implications of Economic and Monetary Union and provides evidence concerning the importance of the credit channel in France.

Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises

The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.