Full Solution of an Endogenous Sorting Model with Contextual and Income Effects

The paper solves themselves into neighborhoods because they value average schooling among adults in the neighborhood. The paper extends results by Nesheim (2002) but with the addition of income effects on neighborhood choice. Individuals value housing, non-housing consumption, and expected schooling of their children. The latter depends on parental schooling, on a child's ability, and on average schooling in the neighborhood. Neighborhood choice trades off non-housing consumption with children's expected schooling. Individuals choose neighborhoods recongnizing that their neighbors' characteristics are correlated with their own. The equilibrium housing price is associated with endogenous sorting and also allows computation of a neighborhood distributions of income, schooling and other variables of interest.

Intercity Trade and Convergent versus Divergent Urban Growth

The paper studies intercity trade and growth in an overlapping-generations economy where tradeable goods are produced using a composite of capital, raw labor and intermediates, and are combined in each city to produce a composite. The composite is used for consumption and investment. Tax-financed investment that affects commuting costs endogenizes city size. A combination of weak (strong) diminishing returns and strong (weak) market size effects can lead to increasing (decreasing) returns to scale. Autarkic urban growth may be parallel or divergent. Capital growth in the integrated economy has the same dynamic properties as its counterpart for an economy with autarkic cities but leads to national constant returns to scale.

The Evolution of City Size Distributions

We review the accumulated knowledge on city size distributions and determinants of urban growth. This topic is of interest because of a number of key stylized facts, including notably Zipf’s law for cities (which states that the number of cities of size greater than S is proportional to 1/S) and the importance of urban primacy. We first review the empirical evidence on the upper tail of city size distribution. We offer a novel discussion of the important econometric issues in the characterization of the distribution. We then discuss the theories that have been advanced to explain the approximate constancy of the distribution across very different economic and social systems, emphasizing both bare-bone statistical theories and more developed economic theories. We discuss the more recent work on the determinants of urban growth and, in particular, growth regressions, economic explanations of city size distributions other than Gibrat’s law, consequences of major shocks (quasi natural experiments), and the dynamics of U.S. urban evolution.city size distribution, Gibrat’s law, Hill estimator, persistence of city size distributions, power laws, random growth, urban growth, urban hierarchy, urban primacy, Zipf regression, Zipf’s law.

Searching for the Best Neighborhood: Mobility and Social Interactions

The paper seeks to contribute to the social interactions literature by exploiting data on individuals’ self-selection into neighborhoods. We study a model in which households search for the best location in the presence of neighborhood effects in the formation of children’s human capital and in the process of cultural transmission. We use micro data from the PSID which we have merged, using geocodes, with contextual information at the levels of census tracts and of counties from the 2000 US Census. We control for numerous individual characteristics and neighborhood attributes and find, consistently with neighbourhood effects models, that households with children, but not those without, are more likely to move out of neighborhoods whose attributes are not favorable to the production of human capital and the transmission of parents’ cultural traits, and to move into neighborhoods which instead exhibit desirable such attributes.

History versus Expectations: an Empirical Investigation

This paper provides the first empirical test of the role of history versus expectations in U.S. urban development. Starting from Paul Krugman's theoretical work in new economic geography, we test whether or not a modern city develops because of either advantageous initial conditions or by way of a self-fulfilling prophecy based on expectations of development. Using the methology developed by Granger to establish causality between two variables, but adapted to a cross-section with four time lags, we test whether asset values, that is, farmland values and housing values, anticipate urban development or vice versa. In the case of the former, we would conclude that expectations drive urban development in the U.S., and in the case of the latter we would conclude that history does. The results indicate very strongly that initial conditions, that is history, dominate the process by which one city becomes a metropolis and another languishes in the periphery.History vs. expectations; urban growth; Granger causality; economics geography

Social Interactions

Prepared for Annual Reviews of Economics.