Bayesian statistics in anesthesia practice:a tutorial for anesthesiologists

This narrative review intends to provide the anesthesiologist with the basic knowledge of the Bayesian concepts and should be considered as a tutorial for anesthesiologists in the concept of Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian approach represents the mathematical formulation of the idea that we can update our initial belief about data with the evidence obtained from any kind of acquired data. It provides a theoretical framework and a statistical method to use pre-existing information within the context of new evidence. Several authors have described the Bayesian approach as capable of dealing with uncertainty in medical decision-making. This review describes the Bayes theorem and how it is used in clinical studies in anesthesia and critical care. It starts with a general introduction to the theorem and its related concepts of prior and posterior probabilities. Second, there is an explanation of the basic concepts of the Bayesian statistical inference. Last, a summary of the applicability of some of the Bayesian statistics in current literature is provided, such as Bayesian analysis of clinical trials and PKPD modeling

c-myb Proto-Oncogene Is Expressed by Quiescent Scleroderma Fibroblasts and, Unlike B-myb Gene, Does Not Correlate With Proliferation

Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma) is characterized by excessive deposition of extracellular matrix constituents. Although it has been proposed that tissue fibrosis is due to increased fibroblast synthesis of various collagen polypeptides, there is some experimental evidence that patients with systemic sclerosis have a defect in the control of fibroblast growth. The myb family of genes includes, among others, the c-myb proto-oncogene and the structurally related gene, B-myb, which are both implicated in the regulation of differentiation and/or proliferation of hematopoietic and nonhematopoietic cells. To elucidate the molecular basis responsible for scleroderma fibroblast proliferation, we therefore elected to investigate the expression of c-myb and B-myb genes in scleroderma and control cells. Using the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction technique, we detected c-myb transcripts in scleroderma skin fibroblasts rendered quiescent by serum deprivation. Under the game experimental conditions, c-myb message was not found in normal skin fibroblasts, but, after serum stimulation, c-myb RNA was clearly evident from 3 to 72h in both normal and pathologic cells. Treatment of these cells with c-myb antisense oligonucleotides caused downregulation of c-myb expression, and the inhibition of scleroderma fibroblast proliferation was 42%, whereas in normal fibroblasts the inhibition was weaker (22%). In contrast to c-myb, in normal and scleroderma fibroblasts the level of expression of B-myb correlated with cell proliferation assessed by cell count, and densitometric analysis showed that B-myb message was 1.5–5 times higher in most of pathologic cells studied. The antisense B-myb oligonucleotides had a weaker antiproliferative effect compared with antisense c-myb, inhibiting scleroderma and normal fibroblasts by 23% and 13%, respectively. These data suggest that the B-myb and c-myb genes may play a role in scleroderma fibroblast proliferation and function

Prospective clinical validation of the Eleveld propofol pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model in general anaesthesia

BACKGROUND: Target-controlled infusion (TCI) systems incorporating pharmacokinetic (PK) or PK-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models can be used to facilitate drug administration. Existing models were developed using data from select populations, the use of which is, strictly speaking, limited to these populations. Recently a propofol PK-PD model was developed for a broad population range. The aim of the study was to prospectively validate this model in children, adults, older subjects, and obese adults undergoing general anaesthesia. METHODS: The 25 subjects included in each of four groups were stratified by age and weight. Subjects received propofol through TCI with the Eleveld model, titrated to a bispectral index (BIS) of 40-60. Arterial blood samples were collected at 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 60 min after the start of propofol infusion, and every 30 min thereafter, to a maximum of 10 samples. BIS was recorded continuously. Predictive performance was assessed using the Varvel criteria. RESULTS: For PK, the Eleveld model showed a bias < ±20% in children, adults, and obese adults, but a greater bias (-27%) in older subjects. Precision was <30% in all groups. For PD, the bias and wobble were <5 BIS units and the precision was close to 10 BIS units in all groups. Anaesthetists were able to achieve intraoperative BIS values of 40-60 using effect-site target concentrations about 85-140% of the age-adjusted Ce50. CONCLUSIONS: The Eleveld propofol PK-PD model showed predictive precision <30% for arterial plasma concentrations and BIS predictions with a low (population) bias when used in TCI in clinical anaesthesia practice

Implementation of a Bayesian based advisory tool for target-controlled infusion of propofol using qCON as control variable

This single blinded randomized controlled trial aims to assess whether the application of a Bayesian-adjusted CePROP (effect-site of propofol) advisory tool leads towards a more stringent control of the cerebral drug effect during anaesthesia, using qCON as control variable. 100 patients scheduled for elective surgery were included and randomized into a control or intervention group (1:1 ratio). In the intervention group the advisory screen was made available to the clinician, whereas it was blinded in the control group. The settings of the target-controlled infusion pumps could be adjusted at any time by the clinician. Cerebral drug effect was quantified using processed EEG (CONOX monitor, Fresenius Kabi, Bad Homburg, Germany). The time of qCON between the desired range (35–55) during anaesthesia maintenance was defined as our primary end point. Induction parameters and recovery times were considered secondary end points and coefficient of variance of qCON and CePROP was calculated in order to survey the extent of control towards the mean of the population. The desired range of qCON between 35 and 55 was maintained in 84% vs. 90% (p = 0.15) of the case time in the control versus intervention group, respectively. Secondary endpoints showed similar results in both groups. The coefficient of variation for CePROP was higher in the intervention group. The application of the Bayesian-based CePROP advisory system in this trial did not result in a different time of qCON between 35 and 55 (84 [21] vs. 90 [18] percent of the case time). Significant differences between groups were hard to establish, most likely due to a very high performance level in the control group. More extensive control efforts were found in the intervention group. We believe that this advisory tool could be a useful educational tool for novices to titrate propofol effect-site concentrations.</p

Breast US as primary imaging modality for diagnosing gynecomastia

Aim. To assess the role of breast US in diagnosing and classifying gynecomastia as the primary imaging modality and to compare US findings and classification system with the mammographic ones. Patients and methods. 48 patients suspected of having gynecomastia underwent mammography and US. Two radiologists in consensus retrospectively evaluated mammograms and sonograms. Both US and mammographic images were evaluated categorizing gynecomastia into non-mass, nodular and flame shaped patterns. The two category assignations were compared in order to find any difference. The reference standard for both the classification systems was represented by the cytological examination in 18 out of 44 cases (41%) and the six-month US follow-up in the remaining cases. Results. The US examination revealed pseudo-gynecomastia in 4/48 (8%) and true gynecomastia in the remaining 44 (92%). Gynecomastia was bilateral in 25/44 cases (57%) and unilateral in the remaining 19 (43%). The cases of true gynecomastia included non mass shape in 26/44 cases (59%), nodular shape in 12 (27%) and flame shape in 6 (14%). The mammographic examination revealed the same results as compared with US findings. 18/44 (41%) patients affected by nodular or dendritic gynecomastia underwent cytological examination confirming the presence of glandular tissue and the benign nature of the clinical condition. Conclusions. US could be proposed as the primary imaging tool for diagnosing and classifying gynecomastia, avoiding unnecessary Xray examinations or invasive procedures in case of diffuse gynecomastia. In case of nodular or dendritic patterns, biopsy remains mandatory for a definitive diagnosis

Role of specimen US for predicting resection margin status in breast conserving therapy

Aim. To assess the diagnostic accuracy of specimen ultrasound (US) for predicting resection margin status in women undergoing breast conserving therapy for US-detected cancer, having the histological findings as the reference standard. Patients and methods. A total of 132 consecutive patients (age range, 34-87 years; mean, 51 years) underwent breast-conserving surgery for US-detected invasive breast cancer. All surgical specimens underwent US examination. The presence of lesion within the specimen and its distance from the specimen margins were assessed considering a threshold distance between the lesion and specimen margins of 10 mm. US findings were then compared with the pathological ones and specimen US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for predicting histological margin status were evaluated, having the histological findings as the reference standard. Results. The histological examination detected invasive ductal carcinoma in 96/132 (73%) cases, invasive lobular carcinoma in 32/132 (24%), mucinous carcinoma in 4/132 (3%). The pathological margin analysis revealed 96/132 (73%) negative margins and 36 (27%) close/positive margins. US examination detected all 132 breast lesions within the surgical specimens. 110 (83%) negative margins and 22 (17%) positive margins were found on US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, PPV and NPV of 44%, 94%, 80%, 73% and 82%, respectively, were found for specimen US. Conclusions. Specimen US represents a time and cost saving imaging tool for evaluating the presence of US detected-breast lesion within surgical specimen and for predicting the histological margin status