Integrating biofuels into the DART model: Analysing the effects of the EU 10% biofuel target

Biofuels and other forms of bioenergy have received increased attention in recent times: They have partly been acclaimed as an instrument to contribute to rural development, energy security and to fight global warming but have been increasingly come under attack for their potential to contribute to rising food prices. It has thus become clear that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important. In this paper we describe how the CGE model DART is extended to include first-generation biofuel production technologies. DART can now be used to assess the efficiency of combined climate and bioenergy policies. As a first example the effects of a 10% biofuel target in the EU are analyzed.biofuels, CGE model, EU climate policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integrating biofuels into the DART model: analysing the effects of the EU 10% biofuel target.

Bioenergie; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; CGE-Modelling; Klimaschutz; Förderung regenerativer Energien; Wirkungsanalyse; EU-Staaten;

Multi-Product Crops for Agricultural and Energy Production - an AGE Analysis for Poland

By-products from agriculture and forestry can contribute to production of clean and cheap (bio)electricity. To assess the role of such multi-product crops in the response to climate policies, we present an applied general equilibrium model with special attention to biomass and multi-product crops for Poland. The potential to boost production of bioelectricity through the use of multi-product crops turns out to be limited to only 2-3% of total electricity production. Further expansion of the bioelectricity sector will have to be based on biomass crops explicitly grown for energy purposes. The competition between agriculture and biomass for scarce land remains limited, given the availability of relatively poor land types and substitution possibilities. The importance of indirect effects illustrates that the AGE framework is appropriate

Integrating demography into a regional CGE model

Changes in global labor shares are often exogenously linked to changes in global population in (recursive) dynamic general equilibrium models (CGE). In many cases, these models carry a simplification or even misspecification for e.g. demographic behavior concerning fertility and mortality, and with that of the changing age structure of the population. In addition, participation rates of the potential labor force should be taken into account to have a better representation of the actual labor force. To account for these factors we link a recursive dynamic global CGE model, based on the GTAP 6.0 database, with a model that describes the demographic changes as the result of fertility and mortality patterns. The results indicate that the population aging has a substantial effect on the economy. Especially in Europe, where the process of aging is or will become visible within the coming decades, economic growth might be slowed down. To anticipate on these developments, various policy options are explored. The policies included in the paper are rising retirement age, increasing participation rates and changing the fertility rates. Although these options do have a significant positive effect on the average income levels, they cannot fully compensate the coming waves of aging