Does Governance Impact on the Foreign Direct Investment- Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa?

The central question this paper sought to tackle was “does the quality of institutions matter for the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth?” Using macroeconomic data on 27 Sub Saharan African (SSA) economies and six distinct measures of governance the findings showed that control of corruption, political stability and government effectiveness matter for the influence of FDI on economic growth in SSA. This key fi nding was found to be robust even in models where these three governance indicators were interacted with FDI. Furthermore, the results from threshold-type sample splitting showed that in the sample containing countries with a higher level of governance, the positive impact of FDI on growth has larger magnitude vis-à-vis the comparator group with poorer governance indicators. This significant threshold effects remained robust across specifications

Commentaries on the Global Fiscal Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Good, the Bad, the Unknown, and the Way Forward

The COVID-19 Pandemic has thrown the hitherto global fragile economy into an unprecedented level of uncertainty. In an attempt to douse the pandemic's negative consequences, governments have resorted to the use of myriad fiscal policies to stimulate the economy. The global fiscal responses have been greeted with mixed feelings. There are three sides to the fiscal responses. While one side favours governments' responses, another group has identified the negative consequences of such actions. The last side is neither in support nor against governments' actions but rather enumerates some unclear issues. This study aims to run a commentary on the consequences of government fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also offer a roadmap for the post-pandemic era

Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast:A factor analysis

This study applies portfolio balance theory in forecasting exchange rate. The study further argues for the need to account for the role of Global Financial Cycle (GFCy). As such, the first stage of the analysis is estimate a GFCy model and obtain the idiosyncratic shock. Next, we use the results in the first stage as a predictor for exchange rate. The study builds dataset for 20 advanced and emerging countries from 1990Q1-2017Q2. Among other things, there are three important results to note. First, our approach to forecast exchange rate is able to beat the benchmark random walk model. Second, the best prediction is made at short term forecasting horizons, i.e. 1 and 4 quarters forecast ahead. Third, the performance of the early sample size outweighs that of the late sample size

Sustainable Economic Growth and Financial Stability: A Critical Perspective with Special Reference to Sub-Saharan Africa

This critical appraisal summarizes and reviews eight published articles for the award of a doctoral degree, based on published works. These articles examined different issues surrounding two monetary policy objectives: sustainable economic growth and financial stability. These policy objectives lay more emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa, as six papers were devoted to the region. The first policy objective identifies capital flows as an important source of economic growth. The two types of capital flows examined in this study were Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and remittances. This theme addressed two issues that are inter-related: (i) the determinants and consequences of capital inflows; and (ii) the dynamics of dollarization. There are four main shortcomings of the previous studies. First, determinants of FDI have been limited to economic variables. Second, studies have mainly used regional/continental dataset without recourse to sub-regions, implying high level of data aggregation. Third, remittances basedstudies have ignored the ability of remittances to solve some problems, such as investment volatility and business cycles. Fourth, there are some features of dollarization (asymmetry, structural breaks and threshold effect), though not apparent, but exist, and not captured by the previous studies. The inability to capture these features could lead to wrong policy formulation. The second policy objective sought to provide models that would accurately make stock market predictions. The main shortcoming of the literature is the inability to capture some inherent characteristics of the predictors, such as persistence, endogeneity and conditional heteroscedasticity. In addition, this literature has also not taken cognisance of recent development in the financial markets e.g. the emergence of cryptocurrencies and financialization of the commodity markets. Findings from the first policy objective are as follows: Institutional framework is an important determinant of the two types of capital flows. In addition, capital flows accompanied by improved institutional level are able to curtail the rising influence of investment volatility and business cycles. Accounting for some features makes dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) defy theoretical underpinnings. The findings from the second theme suggested that Bitcoin and quantitative easing policy of the monetary authorities and oil price were good predictors of stock market performance. Results further showed that investors react more to positive changes in oil price. Policy implications, research limitations and future research directions were discussed

‘More Finance’ or ‘Better Finance’ in Output Growth Volatility Literature : Evidence from a Global Perspective

This paper extends the work of Beck et al. (2006, Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks? Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 1146-1167) by expanding the measures of finance to capture the qualitative and efficiency nature of the financial sector, rather than measuring the size of the sector. The study used a large dataset for 71 countries covering the period 1999-2011 and relied on system-GMM estimates. It was found that “more finance” (i.e quantitative measures) indicators have strong evidence of dampening effect on output growth volatility, while the “better finance” (efficiency measures) indicators have weak evidence of output growth volatility reducing influence. The exact effect of both monetary and real shocks is mixed across the different measures of financial development. The interaction between financial development indicators and the two sources of shocks indicates that the output volatility reduction arising from the shock is enhanced in the presence of “better finance or qualitative finance”. This concretely reinforces the superior role of “better finance” in mobilizing, distributing and utilizing saving to mitigate against shocks within these economies. The results are robust to different checks and as a policy implication, the study advocates for reforms of the financial sector

What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus

This study examines the role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus. A representative of 10 countries was selected from net oil-exporting and-importing economies for the period 1986–2017. It is hypothesised that countries respond differently to changes in oil price. To prove this point, we use the recent nonlinear ARDL of Shin et al. (2014), based on the framework of the dynamic common correlated effect of the heterogeneous panel of Chudik and Pesaran (2015), to decompose oil price into positive and negative partial sums. Our results show that without accounting for breaks, asymmetry only matters for net oil exporters in both short- and long run. However, accounting for breaks expanded the importance of asymmetry to net oil importers (in the short run). These results are robust to changes in the measures of oil price and growth volatility

A motorized device for cracking pre-treated dika nuts

Cracking of dika nut has presented serious challenges to local processors considering the arduous task it constitutes during processing.  A motorized machine that is capable of multiple cracking of dika nuts was designed, fabricated and tested. The major components of the machine include a sliding hammer, a gear unit, a chain conveyor and cracking trays.  The experimental machine was evaluated on the basis of cracking efficiency and throughput considering three types of pre-treated nuts (sun-dried, oven-dried and roasted) and two nut sizes (small and big).  The cracking efficiency and throughput were: 65% and 8.84kg/h, 63% and 7.75kg/h, 45% and 5.67 kg/h for roasted, oven-dried and sun-dried small nuts; while the corresponding values for big nuts were: 72% and 12.86kg/h, 70% and 12.58kg/h, 67% and 12.41 kg/h, respectively.  Big dika nuts indicated a higher cracking efficiency and throughput than small nuts. The highest cracking efficiency and throughput values (72% and 12.86 kg/h, respectively) were obtained for big roasted nuts.  The method of pre-treatment and dika nut sizes were found to affect the cracking efficiency and throughput of the motorized dika nut cracking machine.  With a throughput of 10 kg/h and the possibility of cracking twenty nuts at a time, this machine is an improvement over existing designs.  A machine of this nature will be suitable for small and medium scale applications in the processing of dika nut

Diagnosing Pilgrimage Common Diseases by Interactive Multimedia Courseware

في هذه الدراسة، نحاول تقديم خدمة الرعاية الصحية للحجاج. تصف هذه الدراسة كيف يمكن استخدام مناهج الوسائط المتعددة في جعل الحجاج على علم بالأمراض الشائعة الموجودة في المملكة العربية السعودية أثناء موسم الحج. كما سيتم استخدام البرامج التعليمية للوسائط المتعددة في توفير بعض المعلومات حول أعراض هذه الأمراض، وكيف يمكن علاج كل منها. يحتوي البرنامج التعليمي للوسائط المتعددة على تمثيل افتراضي للمستشفى، وبعض مقاطع الفيديو للحالات الفعلية للمرضى، وأنشطة التعلم الأصيلة التي تهدف إلى تعزيز الكفاءات الصحية أثناء الحج. تم فحص المناهج الدراسية لدراسة الطريقة التي يتم بها تطبيق عناصر المناهج الدراسية في التعلم في الوقت الحقيقي. أكثر من ذلك، في هذا البحث، يتم تقديم مناقشة حول أخطر الأمراض التي قد تحدث خلال موسم الحج. إن استخدام دورة الوسائط المتعددة قادر على توفير المعلومات بشكل فعال وفعال للحجاج حول هذه الأمراض. تؤدي هذه التقنية هذه المهمة باستخدام المعرفة المتراكمة من التجارب السابقة، لا سيما في مجال تشخيص الأمراض والطب والعلاج. تم إنشاء المناهج الدراسية باستخدام أداة تأليف تُعرف باسم مدرب ToolBook لتزويد الحجاج بخدمة عالية الجودة.In this study, we attempt to provide healthcare service to the pilgrims. This study describes how a multimedia courseware can be used in making the pilgrims aware of the common diseases that are present in Saudi Arabia during the pilgrimage. The multimedia courseware will also be used in providing some information about the symptoms of these diseases, and how each of them can be treated. The multimedia courseware contains a virtual representation of a hospital, some videos of actual cases of patients, and authentic learning activities intended to enhance health competencies during the pilgrimage. An examination of the courseware was conducted so as to study the manner in which the elements of the courseware are applied in real-time learning. More so, in this research, a discussion on the most dangerous diseases which may occur during the season of pilgrimage is provided. The use of the multimedia course is able to effectively and efficiently provide information to the pilgrims about these diseases. This technology performs this task by using the knowledge that has been accumulated from past experience, particularly in the field of disease diagnosis, medicine and treatment. The courseware has been created using an authoring tool known as ToolBook instructor to provide pilgrims with quality service

The journey towards dollarization: the role of the tourism industry

There has been an increasing wave of globalization since the turn of the millennium. This study focuses on two by-products of globalization: dollarization and tourism. Empirical studies have ignored the possible relationship between dollarization and tourism. However, we hypothesize that a booming tourism industry will fuel increase in the usage and circulation of foreign currencies, thus increasing the level of dollarization. The objective of this study is to examine the extent to which the tourism industry exacerbates the dollarization process of selected Sub-sahara African (SSA) countries. Using Tobit regression, we found that tourism positively affects dollarization. Our results are robust to: (i) alternative measures of tourism; (ii) accounting for endogeneity and outlier effects