USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015

The Impact of Marketing Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions

Abstract To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers¿ decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers¿ risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers¿ perceptions about MAS performance and delivery; and match between the MAS and the producer¿s marketing philosophy are hypothesized to influence the impact of MAS on producers¿ marketing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers were used and the impact of MAS on producers¿ marketing decisions was tested using an ordered probit model. The empirical results reveal that not only the perceived MAS performance, but also the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, and the match between MAS and producer¿s marketing philosophy are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations

U.S. Crop Farmers' Use of Market Advisory Services

This study reports that Market Advisory Services (MAS) are used by about 82% of commercial US crop producers, based on the results of a recent survey. Only 43% of MAS users rely on a single service, while the other 57% subscribe to multiple services. MAS users¿ profiles in terms of their (a) demographic characteristics, (b) risk attitude, and (c) marketing behavior are presented. The results indicate that MAS users can be differentiated based on their location and use of computers, though not on age and farm size. MAS users are shown to be significantly more risk-seeking than non-users. Furthermore, MAS users apply significantly more forward pricing techniques, but are no different from non-users in terms of marketing frequency

The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendation on Producers' Marketing Decisions

A conceptual framework was developed that provides insight into the factors affecting the impact of these recommendations on producer pricing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers reveal that the perceived performance of the Market Advisory Services (MAS), the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, as well as the match between MAS and producer's marketing philosophy are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations. Risk attitude does not affect the impact of MAS recommendations on producers' decisions, indicating that producers are more interested in the price-enhancing characteristics of MAS advice than in its risk-reducing features