Median Statistics, H_0, and the Accelerating Universe

(Abridged) We develop median statistics that provide powerful alternatives to chi-squared likelihood methods and require fewer assumptions about the data. Applying median statistics to Huchra's compilation of nearly all estimates of the Hubble constant, we find a median value H_0=67 km/s/Mpc. Median statistics assume only that the measurements are independent and free of systematic errors. This estimate is arguably the best summary of current knowledge because it uses all available data and, unlike other estimates, makes no assumption about the distribution of measurement errors. The 95% range of purely statistical errors is +/- 2 km/s/Mpc. The statistical precision of this result leads us to analyze the range of possible systematic errors in the median, which we estimate to be roughly +/- 5 km/s/Mpc (95% limits), dominating over the statistical errors. A Bayesian median statistics treatment of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) apparent magnitude versus redshift data from Riess et al. yields a posterior probability that the cosmological constant Lambda > 0 of 70 or 89%, depending on the prior information used. The posterior probability of an open universe is about 47%. Analysis of the Perlmutter et al. high-redshift SNe Ia data show the best-fit flat-Lambda model favored over the best-fit Lambda = 0 open model by odds of 366:1; corresponding Riess et al. odds are 3:1 (assuming prior odds of 1:1).Median statistics analyses of the SNe Ia data do not rule out a time-variable Lambda model, and may even favor it over a time-independent Lambda and a Lambda = 0 open model.Comment: Significant revisions include discussion of systematic errors in the median of H_0. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal, v548, February 20, 2001 issue. 47 pages incl. figures and table

On the Degeneracy Inherent in Observational Determination of the Dark Energy Equation of State

Using a specific model for the expansion rate of the Universe as a function of scale factor, it is demonstrated that the equation of state of the dark energy cannot be determined uniquely from observations at redshifts $z\lesssim{\rm a few}$ unless the fraction of the mass density of the Universe in nonrelativistic particles, $\Omega_M$, somehow can be found independently. A phenomenological model is employed to discuss the utility of additional constraints from the formation of large scale structure and the positions of CMB peaks in breaking the degeneracy among models for the dark energy.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures. Several references adde

Quintessence models in Supergravity

Scalar field models of quintessence typically require that the expectation value of the field today is of order the Planck mass, if we want them to explain the observed acceleration of the Universe. This suggests that we should be considering models in the context of supergravity. We discuss a particular class of supergravity models and analyze their behavior under different choices of the Kahler metric.Comment: 6 pages, revised version to appear in PR

A Two-Field Quintessence Model

We study the dynamics of a quintessence model based on two interacting scalar fields. The model can account for the (recent) accelerated expansion of the Universe suggested by astronomical observations. Acceleration can be permanent or temporary and, for both scenarios, it is possible to obtain suitable values for the cosmological parameters while satisfying the nucleosynthesis constraint on the quintessence energy density. We argue that the model dynamics can be made consistent with a stable zero-energy relaxing supersymmetric vacuum.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Relic Gravity Waves from Braneworld Inflation

We discuss a scenario in which extra dimensional effects allow a scalar field with a steep potential to play the dual role of the inflaton as well as dark energy (quintessence). The post-inflationary evolution of the universe in this scenario is generically characterised by a `kinetic regime' during which the kinetic energy of the scalar field greatly exceeds its potential energy resulting in a `stiff' equation of state for scalar field matter $P_\phi \simeq \rho_\phi$. The kinetic regime precedes the radiation dominated epoch and introduces an important new feature into the spectrum of relic gravity waves created quantum mechanically during inflation. The gravity wave spectrum increases with wavenumber for wavelengths shorter than the comoving horizon scale at the commencement of the radiative regime. This `blue tilt' is a generic feature of models with steep potentials and imposes strong constraints on a class of inflationary braneworld models. Prospects for detection of the gravity wave background by terrestrial and space-borne gravity wave observatories such as LIGO II and LISA are discussed.Comment: Revised in response to referee's suggestions. Main conclusions strengthened. 23 pages latex, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

New Constraints from High Redshift Supernovae and Lensing Statistics upon Scalar Field Cosmologies

We explore the implications of gravitationally lensed QSOs and high-redshift SNe Ia observations for spatially flat cosmological models in which a classically evolving scalar field currently dominates the energy density of the Universe. We consider two representative scalar field potentials that give rise to effective decaying $\Lambda$ (``quintessence'') models: pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons ($V(\phi)=M^4(1+\cos (\phi /f))$) and an inverse power-law potential ($V(\phi)=M^{4+\alpha}\phi ^{-\alpha}$). We show that a large region of parameter space is consistent with current data if $\Omega_{m0} > 0.15$. On the other hand, a higher lower bound for the matter density parameter suggested by large-scale galaxy flows, $\Omega_{m0} > 0.3$, considerably reduces the allowed parameter space, forcing the scalar field behavior to approach that of a cosmological constant.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PR

Observational Constraints on Chaplygin Quartessence: Background Results

We derive the constraints set by several experiments on the quartessence Chaplygin model (QCM). In this scenario, a single fluid component drives the Universe from a nonrelativistic matter-dominated phase to an accelerated expansion phase behaving, first, like dark matter and in a more recent epoch like dark energy. We consider current data from SNIa experiments, statistics of gravitational lensing, FR IIb radio galaxies, and x-ray gas mass fraction in galaxy clusters. We investigate the constraints from this data set on flat Chaplygin quartessence cosmologies. The observables considered here are dependent essentially on the background geometry, and not on the specific form of the QCM fluctuations. We obtain the confidence region on the two parameters of the model from a combined analysis of all the above tests. We find that the best-fit occurs close to the $\Lambda$CDM limit ($\alpha=0$). The standard Chaplygin quartessence ($\alpha=1$) is also allowed by the data, but only at the $\sim2\sigma$ level.Comment: Replaced to match the published version, references update

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199

Inverse Power Law Quintessence with Non-Tracking Initial Conditions

A common property of popular models of quintessence dark energy is the convergence to a common solution from a large range of the initial conditions. We re-examine the popular inverse power-law model of quintessence (where the common solution is dubbed as the 'tracker') with particular attention to the initial conditions for the field and their influence on the evolution. We find that previously derived limits on the parameters of the potential in this model are valid only in a range of initial conditions. A reasonably sharp boundary lies where the initial energy density of the scalar field is equal to that of the background radiation component. An initial quintessence energy density above this equipartition value lead to a solution that will not have joined the tracker solution by the present epoch. These non-tracker solutions possess the property that their present equation of state is very compatible with the observed bounds and independent of the exponent of the potential.Comment: RevTEX4, 9 figure

Future supernova probes of quintessence

We investigate the potential of a future supernovae data set, as might be obtained by the proposed SNAP satellite, to discriminate between two possible explanations for the observed dimming of the high redshift type IA supernovae: namely, either (i) a cosmological evolution for which the expansion of the universe has been accelerating for a substantial range of redshifts z∼1; or (ii) an unexpected supernova luminosity evolution over such a redshift range. By evaluating Bayes factors we show that within the context of spatially flat model universes with a dark energy the future SNAP data set should be able to discriminate these two possibilities. Our calculations assume particular cosmological models with a quintessence field in the form of a dynamical pseudo Nambu-Goldstone boson (PNGB), and a simple empirical model of the evolution of peak luminosities of the supernovae sources which has been recently discussed in the literature. We also show that the fiducial SNAP data set, simulated with the assumption of no source evolution, is able to discriminate the PNGB model from a number of other spatially flat quintessence models which have been widely studied in the literature, namely those with inverse power-law, simple exponential and double-exponential potentials.S. C. Cindy Ng and David L. Wiltshir