Optimal detection of changepoints with a linear computational cost

We consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large data sets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example in genetics as we analyse larger regions of the genome, or in finance as we observe time-series over longer periods. We consider the common approach of detecting changepoints through minimising a cost function over possible numbers and locations of changepoints. This includes several established procedures for detecting changing points, such as penalised likelihood and minimum description length. We introduce a new method for finding the minimum of such cost functions and hence the optimal number and location of changepoints that has a computational cost which, under mild conditions, is linear in the number of observations. This compares favourably with existing methods for the same problem whose computational cost can be quadratic or even cubic. In simulation studies we show that our new method can be orders of magnitude faster than these alternative exact methods. We also compare with the Binary Segmentation algorithm for identifying changepoints, showing that the exactness of our approach can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of the inferred segmentation of the data.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Associatio

Australian tertiary learning and teaching scholarship and research 2007-2012

Research into Higher Education is strongly supported in Australia by journals and conferences. Teaching and learning awards, projects and programmes in Australia have gained a significantly larger profile over the last five years thanks, in part, to an imaginative and supportive environment fostered by the federal government through the Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) and now the Office for Learning and Teaching (OLT)

A novel alphaherpesvirus and concurrent respiratory cryptococcosis in a captive koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

A novel alphaherpesvirus was detected in a captive adult, lactating, female koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) admitted to James Cook University Veterinary Emergency Teaching & Clinical Hospital in March 2019, showing signs of anorexia and severe respiratory disease. Postmortem examination revealed gross pathology indicative of pneumonia. Histopathology demonstrated a chronic interstitial pneumonia, multifocal necrotising adrenalitis and hepatitis. Intranuclear inclusion bodies were detected by light microscopy in the respiratory epithelium of the bronchi, bronchioles, alveoli, and hepatocytes, biliary epithelium and adrenal gland associated with foci of necrosis. Cryptococcus gattii was isolated from fresh lung on necropsy, positively identified by PCR, and detected histologically by light microscopy, only in the lung tissue. A universal viral family-level PCR indicated that the virus was a member of the Herpesviruses. Sequence analysis in comparison to other known and published herpesviruses, indicated the virus was a novel alphaherpesvirus, with 97% nucleotide identity to macropodid alphaherpesvirus 1. We provisionally name the novel virus phascolarctid alphaherpesvirus 3 (PhaHV-3). Further research is needed to determine the distribution of this novel alphaherpesvirus in koala populations and establish associations with disease in this host species

Global embedding of the Kerr black hole event horizon into hyperbolic 3-space

An explicit global and unique isometric embedding into hyperbolic 3-space, H^3, of an axi-symmetric 2-surface with Gaussian curvature bounded below is given. In particular, this allows the embedding into H^3 of surfaces of revolution having negative, but finite, Gaussian curvature at smooth fixed points of the U(1) isometry. As an example, we exhibit the global embedding of the Kerr-Newman event horizon into H^3, for arbitrary values of the angular momentum. For this example, considering a quotient of H^3 by the Picard group, we show that the hyperbolic embedding fits in a fundamental domain of the group up to a slightly larger value of the angular momentum than the limit for which a global embedding into Euclidean 3-space is possible. An embedding of the double-Kerr event horizon is also presented, as an example of an embedding which cannot be made global.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

Presence and geodynamic significance of Cambro-Ordovician series of SE Karakaram (N. Pakistan)

New geological, geochemical and geochronological data from the Southern Karakoram (NE Pakistan) indicate the presence of several unexpectedly old and well preserved units along the Asian margin: (1) a Precambrian basement, displaying a minimum amphibole Ar-Ar age of 651 Ma; (2) a thick Cambro-Ordovician platform-type sedimentary unit overlying the Precam-brian basement. These series are dated by graptolite and crinoid faunas, and are confirmed by concordant 87Sr/86Sr and 13C “ages” of the marbles; (3) a dismembered ophiolitic series formed by slices of metagabbros and metabasalts separated by ultramafic lenses (the Masherbrum Greenstone Complex). The occurrence of such Cambro-Ordovician series overlying a Precambrian basement in south-eastern Karakoram similar to the south-western Karakoram shows that the Karakoram constitutes a continuous tectonic block. The petrology and geochemistry of the Masherbrum Greenstone Complex (mineral chemistry, major and trace element and Sr-Nd isotopic data) are indicative of a supra-subductive environment. The presence of LREE-enriched calc-alkaline rocks [(La/Yb)N = 4.45.6; (Nb/La)N = 0.2-0.3; eNd565 = 5.1-7.1] and LREE-depleted tholeiitic rocks [(La/Yb)N =0.5-1.3; (Nb/La)N = 0.6-0.9; eNd565 = 5.6-7.8] are consistent with arc and back-arc settings, respectively. A high-Mg andesitic dolerite and an OIB-type metabasalt, with lower eNd ratios (eNd565 = 0.5 and 4.5) are in accordance with source heterogeneity beneath the arc. The Masherbrum Greenstone Complex, along with other Cambro-Ordovician central-eastern volcanic series give evidence of a tectonic situation governed by micro-plate convergent-divergent systems with occurrence of arc - back-arc settings during the Lower Palaeozoic, comparable to that of the current SW Pacific area