Wheat forecast economics effect study

A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function

Mycobacterium tuberculosis type VII secretion system effectors differentially impact the ESCRT endomembrane damage response

Mycobacterium tuberculosis causes tuberculosis, which kills more people than any other infection. M. tuberculosis grows in macrophages, cells that specialize in engulfing and degrading microorganisms. Like many intracellular pathogens, in order to cause disease, M. tuberculosis damages the membrane-bound compartment (phagosome) in which it is enclosed after macrophage uptake. Recent work showed that when chemicals damage this type of intracellular compartment, cells rapidly detect and repair the damage, using machinery called the endosomal sorting complex required for transport (ESCRT). Therefore, we hypothesized that ESCRT might also respond to pathogen-induced damage. At the same time, our previous work showed that the EsxG-EsxH heterodimer of M. tuberculosis can inhibit ESCRT, raising the possibility that M. tuberculosis impairs this host response. Here, we show that ESCRT is recruited to damaged M. tuberculosis phagosomes and that EsxG-EsxH undermines ESCRT-mediated endomembrane repair. Thus, our studies demonstrate a battle between host and pathogen over endomembrane integrity.Intracellular pathogens have varied strategies to breach the endolysosomal barrier so that they can deliver effectors to the host cytosol, access nutrients, replicate in the cytoplasm, and avoid degradation in the lysosome. In the case of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacterium perforates the phagosomal membrane shortly after being taken up by macrophages. Phagosomal damage depends upon the mycobacterial ESX-1 type VII secretion system (T7SS). Sterile insults, such as silica crystals or membranolytic peptides, can also disrupt phagosomal and endolysosomal membranes. Recent work revealed that the host endosomal sorting complex required for transport (ESCRT) machinery rapidly responds to sterile endolysosomal damage and promotes membrane repair. We hypothesized that ESCRTs might also respond to pathogen-induced phagosomal damage and that M. tuberculosis could impair this host response. Indeed, we found that ESCRT-III proteins were recruited to M. tuberculosis phagosomes in an ESX-1-dependent manner. We previously demonstrated that the mycobacterial effectors EsxG/TB9.8 and EsxH/TB10.4, both secreted by the ESX-3 T7SS, can inhibit ESCRT-dependent trafficking of receptors to the lysosome. Here, we additionally show that ESCRT-III recruitment to sites of endolysosomal damage is antagonized by EsxG and EsxH, both within the context of M. tuberculosis infection and sterile injury. Moreover, EsxG and EsxH themselves respond within minutes to membrane damage in a manner that is independent of calcium and ESCRT-III recruitment. Thus, our study reveals that T7SS effectors and ESCRT participate in a series of measures and countermeasures for control of phagosome integrity

Fractals and dynamical chaos in a random 2D Lorentz gas with sinks

Two-dimensional random Lorentz gases with absorbing traps are considered in which a moving point particle undergoes elastic collisions on hard disks and annihilates when reaching a trap. In systems of finite spatial extension, the asymptotic decay of the survival probability is exponential and characterized by an escape rate, which can be related to the average positive Lyapunov exponent and to the dimension of the fractal repeller of the system. For infinite systems, the survival probability obeys a stretched exponential law of the form P(c,t)~exp(-Ct^{1/2}). The transition between the two regimes is studied and we show that, for a given trap density, the non-integer dimension of the fractal repeller increases with the system size to finally reach the integer dimension of the phase space. Nevertheless, the repeller remains fractal. We determine the special scaling properties of this fractal.Comment: 40 pages, 10 figures, preprint for Physica

Perfectly Translating Lattices on a Cylinder

We perform molecular dynamics simulations on an interacting electron gas confined to a cylindrical surface and subject to a radial magnetic field and the field of the positive background. In order to study the system at lowest energy states that still carry a current, initial configurations are obtained by a special quenching procedure. We observe the formation of a steady state in which the entire electron-lattice cycles with a common uniform velocity. Certain runs show an intermediate instability leading to lattice rearrangements. A Hall resistance can be defined and depends linearly on the magnetic field with an anomalous coefficient reflecting the manybody contributions peculiar to two dimensions.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

A Multiscale Mathematical Model of Plasmodium Vivax Transmission

Malaria is caused by Plasmodium parasites which are transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Plasmodium vivax is distinct from other malaria species in its ability to remain dormant in the liver (as hypnozoites) and activate later to cause further infections (referred to as relapses). Mathematical models to describe the transmission dynamics of P. vivax have been developed, but most of them fail to capture realistic dynamics of hypnozoites. Models that do capture the complexity tend to involve many governing equations, making them difficult to extend to incorporate other important factors for P. vivax, such as treatment status, age and pregnancy. In this paper, we have developed a multiscale model (a system of integro-differential equations) that involves a minimal set of equations at the population scale, with an embedded within-host model that can capture the dynamics of the hypnozoite reservoir. In this way, we can gain key insights into dynamics of P. vivax transmission with a minimum number of equations at the population scale, making this framework readily scalable to incorporate more complexity. We performed a sensitivity analysis of our multiscale model over key parameters and found that prevalence of P. vivax blood-stage infection increases with both bite rate and number of mosquitoes but decreases with hypnozoite death rate. Since our mathematical model captures the complex dynamics of P. vivax and the hypnozoite reservoir, it has the potential to become a key tool to inform elimination strategies for P. vivax

Interior Weyl-type Solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell Field Equations

Static solutions of the electro-gravitational field equations exhibiting a functional relationship between the electric and gravitational potentials are studied. General results for these metrics are presented which extend previous work of Majumdar. In particular, it is shown that for any solution of the field equations exhibiting such a Weyl-type relationship, there exists a relationship between the matter density, the electric field density and the charge density. It is also found that the Majumdar condition can hold for a bounded perfect fluid only if the matter pressure vanishes (that is, charged dust). By restricting to spherically symmetric distributions of charged matter, a number of exact solutions are presented in closed form which generalise the Schwarzschild interior solution. Some of these solutions exhibit functional relations between the electric and gravitational potentials different to the quadratic one of Weyl. All the non-dust solutions are well-behaved and, by matching them to the Reissner-Nordstr\"{o}m solution, all of the constants of integration are identified in terms of the total mass, total charge and radius of the source. This is done in detail for a number of specific examples. These are also shown to satisfy the weak and strong energy conditions and many other regularity and energy conditions that may be required of any physically reasonable matter distribution.Comment: 21 pages, RevTex, to appear in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Circadian Rhythmicity by Autocatalysis

The temperature compensated in vitro oscillation of cyanobacterial KaiC phosphorylation, the first example of a thermodynamically closed system showing circadian rhythmicity, only involves the three Kai proteins (KaiA, KaiB, and KaiC) and ATP. In this paper, we describe a model in which the KaiA- and KaiB-assisted autocatalytic phosphorylation and dephosphorylation of KaiC are the source for circadian rhythmicity. This model, based upon autocatalysis instead of transcription-translation negative feedback, shows temperature-compensated circadian limit-cycle oscillations with KaiC phosphorylation profiles and has period lengths and rate constant values that are consistent with experimental observations

Observational evidence for remote forcing of the West India coastal current

Circulation in the north Indian Ocean is influenced by both local and remote wind forcing. So far, however, determining the contribution of these two forcing mechanisms at a location has been possible only in numerical experiments. Here we separate remote and local forcing in observations. Using field measurements (current, sea level, and wind) for a month during March-April 2003 off Goa in the near-coast regime of the West India Coastal Current (WICC), we show that the current was driven by local winds only at periods less than ∼10 days, with remote forcing contributing at longer periods. The high-passed (HP; period less than ~10 days) component of the along-shore current was strongly correlated with the HP component of the along-shore wind, the current lagging the wind by half a day. The low-passed (LP) components of the wind and current were not correlated: the former was unidirectional, but the latter reversed during the period of observation. The relationship between the HP wind and current was used to estimate the locally forced LP current, permitting an estimate of the remote current, the LP residual. This separation of locally forced and remotely forced currents showed that remote forcing contributed as much as local forcing to the WICC. The local current behaved like a classical eastern boundary current forced by local winds. The reversal in the remote current was due to winds 700 km farther south along the coast; frictional damping had an impact only at periods less than 10 days, there being no remotely forced HP current