4,549 research outputs found
River ice responses to a warming Arcticârecent evidence from Russian rivers
This paper looks at the response of river ice to recent warming in the Arctic at six major downstream gauges on large Russian rivers flowing to the Arctic Ocean. For the Severnaya Dvina, Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yana and Kolyma we determine how river ice has changed in recent years and we try to understand the underlying causes of those changes. Long-term variability and trends in beginning and ending dates of ice events, duration of ice conditions, and maximum ice thickness were analyzed over 1955â2012. Significant changes in timing of ice events and a decrease in ice thickness were found for the five Siberian rivers. Duration of ice conditions decreased from 7 days for the Severnaya Dvina, Lena and Yenisey to almost 20 days for the Ob at Salekhard. The change in timing of ice events is consistent with changes in regional air temperature, which has significantly increased at each of these river gauges, except Lena-Kusur. The primary cause of the considerable increase in maximum ice thickness was not identified. Variation of mean winter air temperature and river discharge do not correlate well with maximum ice thickness and it is assumed the influence of specific local conditions can play a more important role in ice formation at these locations. Understanding this interrelationship across the Eurasian pan-Arctic using more comprehensive data archives for river ice and discharge is therefore needed
River Discharge, in Chapter 5, Arctic, State of the Climate in 2010
Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950
Record Russian river discharge in 2007 and the limits of analysis
The Arctic water cycle has experienced an unprecedented degree of change which may have planetary-scale impacts. The year 2007 in particular not only was unique in terms of minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean but also was a record breaking year for Eurasian river inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Over the observational period from 1936 to 2006, the mean annual river discharge for the six largest Russian rivers was 1796 km3 yâ1, with the previous record high being 2080 km3 yâ1, in 2002. The year 2007 showed a massive flux of fresh water from these six drainage basins of 2254 km3 yâ1. We investigated the hydroclimatological conditions for such extreme river discharge and found that while that year\u27s flow was unusually high, the overall spatial patterns were consistent with the hydroclimatic trends since 1980, indicating that 2007 was not an aberration but a part of the general trend.
We wanted to extend our hydroclimatological analysis of river discharge anomalies to seasonal and monthly time steps; however, there were limits to such analyses due to the direct human impact on the river systems. Using reconstructions of the naturalized hydrographs over the Yenisey basin we defined the limits to analysis due to the effect of reservoirs on river discharge. For annual time steps the trends are less impacted by dam construction, whereas for seasonal and monthly time steps these data are confounded by the two sources of change, and the climate change signals were overwhelmed by the human-induced river impoundments. We offer two solutions to this problem; first, we recommend wider use of algorithms to \u27naturalize\u27 the river discharge data and, second, we suggest the identification of a network of existing and stable river monitoring sites to be used for climate change analysis
River Discharge, Arctic Report Card: Update for 2011
Total annual discharge, 1813 km3 /year, in 2010 from the six largest Eurasian rivers (Sev. Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisey, Lena and Kolyma) flowing into the Arctic Ocean was very close to the 1936-2009 long-term mean of 1808 km3 /year. Mean annual discharge, 514 km3 /year, in 2010 from the four large North American Arctic rivers (Mackenzie, Yukon, Back and Peel) was ~3% lower than the long-term mean (529 km3 /year)
PanâArctic river discharge: Prioritizing monitoring of future climate change hot spots
The Arctic freshwater cycle is changing rapidly, which will require adequate monitoring of river flows to detect, observe, and understand changes and provide adaptation information. There has, however, been little detail about where the greatest flow changes are projected, and where monitoring therefore may need to be strengthened. In this study, we used a set of recent climate model runs and an advanced macroâscale hydrological model to analyze how flows across the continental panâArctic are projected to change and where the climate models agree on significant changes. We also developed a method to identify where monitoring stations should be placed to observe these significant changes, and compared this set of suggested locations with the existing network of monitoring stations. Overall, our results reinforce earlier indications of large increases in flow over much of the Arctic, but we also identify some areas where projections agree on significant changes but disagree on the sign of change. For monitoring, central and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and central Canada are hot spots for the highest changes. To take advantage of existing networks, a number of stations across central Canada and western and central Siberia could form a prioritized set. Further development of model representation of highâlatitude hydrology would improve confidence in the areas we identify here. Nevertheless, ongoing observation programs may consider these suggested locations in efforts to improve monitoring of the rapidly changing Arctic freshwater cycle
Widespread decline in hydrological monitoring threatens PanâArctic Research
Operational river discharge monitoring is declining in both North America and Eurasia. This problem is especially severe in the Far East of Siberia and the province of Ontario, where 73% and 67% of river gauges were closed between 1986 and 1999, respectively. These reductions will greatly affect our ability to study variations in and alterations to the panâArctic hydrological cycle
Variability in river temperature, discharge, and energy flux from the Russian panâArctic landmass
We introduce a new Arctic river temperature data set covering 20 gauges in 17 unique Arctic Ocean drainage basins in the Russian panâArctic (ARTâRussia). Warm season 10âday time step data (decades) were collected from Russian archival sources covering a period from 1929 to 2003 with most data falling in the range from the midâ1930s to the early 1990s. The water temperature data were combined with river discharge data to estimate energy flux for all basins and over the Russian panâArctic as a whole. Tests for trend were carried out for water temperature, river discharge, and energy flux. Spatially coherent significant increases in the maximum decadal river temperature were found in the European part of the Russian panâArctic. Several other drainage basins showed significant changes, but there was no strong pattern either in the connections between variables or spatially. The trend in area averaged energy flux for the three largest drainage basins (Ob, Yenisey, Lena) combined was found to be significantly decreasing. We speculate that in the Yenisey basin, this decrease was due to large impoundments of river water. The lack of consistency between temperature and energy flux trends was due to the difference in timing between peaks in river temperature and river discharge. The mean area averaged energy flux from the Russian basins was 0.2 W mâ2. Using this mean we estimated the total energy flux from the entire Russian panâArctic, both gauged and ungauged, to be 82 EJ aâ1
Temporal and spatial variations in maximum river discharge from a new Russian data set
Floods cause more damage in Russia than any other natural disaster, and future climate model projections suggest that the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events will increase in Russia with climate change. Here we analyze daily discharge records from a new data set of 139 Russian gauges in the Eurasian Arctic drainage basin with watershed areas from 16.1 to 50,000 km2 for signs of change in maximum river discharge. Several hypotheses about changes in maximum daily discharge and their linking with trends in precipitation over the cold season were tested. For the magnitude of maximum daily discharge we found relatively equal numbers of significant positive and negative trends across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, which draws into question the hypothesis of an increasing risk of extreme floods. We observed a significant shift to earlier spring discharge, which is consistent with documented changes in snowmelt and freezeâthaw dates. Spatial analysis of changes in maximum discharge and cold season precipitation revealed consistency across most of the domain, the exception being the Lena basin. Trends in maximum discharge of the smallâ to mediumâsized rivers were generally consistent with aggregated signals found for the downstream gauges of the six largest Russian rivers. Although we observe regional changes in maximum discharge across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, no evidence of widespread trends in extreme discharge can be assumed from our analysis
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