Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy

Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting a green-energy-supply strategy, which has been questioned for the intermittence and lack of reliability of renewables. This paper proposes a System Dynamics model for assessing alternative security of supply policy along the natural gas value chain. The model incorporates demand, transport, production and reserves of natural gas variables according to a systemic perspective. It also includes a module for evaluating the effect of natural gas price on the demand and supply levels, respectively. Alternative supply policies are evaluated under different scenarios. The chosen case-study focuses on the Colombian natural gas industry with the purpose of assessing how the impact of public policies affect supply and demand. Particularly, policies consider the allocation of resources along the natural gas supply chain, seeking to promote the development of infrastructure oriented to mitigate the risk of provision shortages

Lessons from last mile electrification in Colombia: Examining the policy framework and outcomes for sustainability

More than a decade ago, Colombia reached a 95% electrification rate. Despite efforts from multiple actors, including government, private sector companies, communities and donors, this rate has only barely improved. In 2020, around 1.9 million Colombians – all residing in rural areas – lacked access to electricity. The electrification challenge is compounded by the geographical isolation of these last mile communities, which makes interconnection to the national electricity grid infeasible. Even where off-grid communities do have access to electricity, supply is often limited to less than six hours per day raising questions about the adequacy of provision. This paper investigates last mile electrification in Colombia, specifically examining the policy framework and the outcomes for the sustainability of last mile projects. Drawing on document analysis, expert interviews and case studies, this paper finds that the government has created an overly complex policy environment which hinders rather than facilitates electrification efforts. It also continues prioritizing the use of diesel generators through costly supply-side subsidies, resulting in high operating costs and inadequate service. More recently, although renewable sources have shown good outcomes, for instance in the case studies examined here, these experiences have not been extensible disseminated. Finally, this paper argues that changes are required to the institutional framework to deliver electricity to last mile communities in Colombia. Specifically, if the multidimensional benefits of electricity are to be realized, changes will need to include improvements in public infrastructure to promoting intersectoral work that promotes socio-economic development of last mile communities and beyond

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

Using simulation to analize wind power penetration: the case of North and Northeast Region

Brazil is rich in renewable sources that can be used for energy generation. The renewable source of energy generation predominantly in Brazil is hydropower. However, the availability of hydropower depends on the useful volume reserves, which is subject to rainfall. Consequently, wind power is a renewable source that is being integrated into the electricity-interconnected system in Brazil. The growth of wind power generation depends on the financial resources and the delays in transmission projects. Despite the Brazilian incentives policy in wind power, the insufficient of transmission infrastructure affects to electricity price in electricity market. This paper addresses the effects of the insufficient of transmission on electricity price through a simulation model. The developed model is implemented to analyze the region of North and Northeast Brazil

IEEE Latin America Transactions

711199

Using simulation to Analyze wind power penetration: The case of North and Northeast Brazil

Brazil is rich in renewable sources that can be used for energy generation. The renewable source of energy generation predominantly in Brazil is hydropower. However, the availability of hydropower depends on the useful volume reserves, which is subject to rainfall. Consequently, wind power is a renewable source that is being integrated into the electricity-interconnected system in Brazil. The growth of wind power generation depends on the financial resources and the delays in transmission projects. Despite the Brazilian incentives policy in wind power, the insufficient of transmission infrastructure affects to electricity price in electricity market. This paper addresses the effects of the insufficient of transmission on electricity price through a simulation model. The developed model is implemented to analyze the region of North and Northeast Brazil

Using simulation to analyze renewables penetration in Brazil

In the new global economy, renewable energy has become a central issue for the competitive. Renewables are the main source of the Brazilian electricity generation sector. This article analyzes the vulnerabilities of hydropower generation and wind power penetration in Brazil. The study presents the results obtained from preliminary analyses of renewable energy’s market penetration in Brazil. Simulation results show the climate variation effects on hydroelectricity generation as well as wind power penetration

Supporting the natural gas supply chain public policies through simulation methods: A dynamic performance management approach

Natural gas is considered the transitional fuel par excellence between fossil and renewable sources, considering its low cost, greater efficiency and lesser impact on the environment. This is the reason why its demand levels have increased worldwide, requiring intervention of public and private stakeholders in order to meet these increments. The participation of diverse interconnected stakeholders (key actors) of the supplier-client form, constitutes a supply chain for natural gas, in which the effects of the application of public policy actions can be analysed in the time, using Dynamic Performance Management DPM methodology. The results of the model show the behaviour of the reserves, production and transport levels compared to scenarios that combine the implementation time of capacity expansion projects and supply reliability percentages, in which the national government can intervene, facilitating decision makers to identify the impact of the actions to be implemented, in the planning of policies aimed at guaranteeing the uninterrupted supply of this resource