Impact of changing DOC concentrations on the potential distribution of acid sensitive biota in a boreal stream network

DOC concentrations have increased in many surface waters in Europe and North America over the past few decades. As DOC exudes a strong influence on pH this DOC increase could have detrimental effects on acid sensitive biota in many streams and lakes. To investigate the potential implications of changes in the DOC concentration on stream water biota, we have used a mesoscale boreal stream network in northern Sweden as a case study. The network was sampled for stream water chemistry at 60 locations during both winter base flow and spring flood periods, representing the extremes experienced annually in these streams both in terms of discharge and acidity. The effect of changing DOC on pH was modeled for all sampling locations using an organic acid model, with input DOC concentrations for different scenarios adjusted by between −30% and +50% from measured present concentrations. The resulting effect on pH was then used to quantify the proportion of stream length in the catchment with pH below the acid thresholds of pH 5.5 and pH 5.0. The results suggest that a change in stream water DOC during base flow would have only a limited effect on pH and hence on the stream length with pH below the acid thresholds. During the spring flood on the other hand a change in DOC would strongly influence pH and the stream length with pH below the acid thresholds. For example an increase in DOC concentration of 30% at all sites would increase the proportion of stream length with pH below 5.5 from 37% to 65%, and the proportion of stream length with pH below 5.0 would increase from 18% to 27%. The results suggest that in high DOC waters, even a marginal change in the DOC concentration could impact acid sensitive biota in a large portion of the aquatic landscape

Fate of Allochthonous Dissolved Organic Carbon in Lakes: A Quantitative Approach

Inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to lakes derived from the surrounding landscape can be stored, mineralized or passed to downstream ecosystems. The balance among these OC fates depends on a suite of physical, chemical, and biological processes within the lake, as well as the degree of recalcintrance of the allochthonous DOC load. The relative importance of these processes has not been well quantified due to the complex nature of lakes, as well as challenges in scaling DOC degradation experiments under controlled conditions to the whole lake scale. We used a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model to simulate broad ranges in lake area and DOC, two characteristics important to processing allochthonous carbon through their influences on lake temperature, mixing depth and hydrology. We calibrated the model to four lakes from the North Temperate Lakes Long Term Ecological Research site, and simulated an additional 12 ‘hypothetical’ lakes to fill the gradients in lake size and DOC concentration. For each lake, we tested several mineralization rates (range: 0.001 d−1 to 0.010 d−1) representative of the range found in the literature. We found that mineralization rates at the ecosystem scale were roughly half the values from laboratory experiments, due to relatively cool water temperatures and other lake-specific factors that influence water temperature and hydrologic residence time. Results from simulations indicated that the fate of allochthonous DOC was controlled primarily by the mineralization rate and the hydrologic residence time. Lakes with residence times <1 year exported approximately 60% of the DOC, whereas lakes with residence times >6 years mineralized approximately 60% of the DOC. DOC fate in lakes can be determined with a few relatively easily measured factors, such as lake morphometry, residence time, and temperature, assuming we know the recalcitrance of the DOC

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Filling holes in regional carbon budgets: Predicting peat depth in a north-temperate lake district

[1] Peat deposits contain on the order of 1/6 of the Earth&apos;s terrestrial fixed carbon (C), but uncertainty in peat depth precludes precise estimates of peat C storage. To assess peat C in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD), a $7000 km 2 region in northern Wisconsin, United States, with 20% peatland by area, we sampled 21 peatlands. In each peatland, peat depth (including basal organic lake sediment, where present) was measured on a grid and interpolated to calculate mean depth. Our study addressed three questions: (1) How spatially variable is peat depth

Dynamics of stream water TOC concentrations in a boreal headwater catchment: Controlling factors and implications for climate scenarios

Two different but complementary modelling approaches for reproducing the observed dynamics of total organic carbon (TOC) in a boreal stream are presented. One is based on a regression analysis, while the other is based on riparian soil conditions using a convolution of flow and concentration. Both approaches are relatively simple to establish and help to identify gaps in the process understanding of the TOC transport from soils to catchments runoff. The largest part of the temporal variation of stream TOC concentrations (4–46 mg L−1) in a forested headwater stream in the boreal zone in northern Sweden may be described using a four-parameter regression equation that has runoff and transformed air temperature as sole input variables. Runoff is assumed to be a proxy for soil wetness conditions and changing flow pathways which in turn caused most of the stream TOC variation. Temperature explained a significant part of the observed inter-annual variability. Long-term riparian hydrochemistry in soil solutions within 4 m of the stream also captures a surprisingly large part of the observed variation of stream TOC and highlights the importance of riparian soils. The riparian zone was used to reproduce stream TOC with the help of a convolution model based on flow and average riparian chemistry as input variables. There is a significant effect of wetting of the riparian soil that translates into a memory effect for subsequent episodes and thus contributes to controlling stream TOC concentrations. Situations with high flow introduce a large amount of variability into stream water TOC that may be related to memory effects, rapid groundwater fluctuations and other processes not identified so far. Two different climate scenarios for the region based on the IPCC scenarios were applied to the regression equation to test what effect the expected increase in precipitation and temperature and resulting changes in runoff would have on stream TOC concentrations assuming that the soil conditions remain unchanged. Both scenarios resulted in a mean increase of stream TOC concentrations of between 1.5 and 2.5 mg L−1 during the snow free season, which amounts to approximately 15% more TOC export compared to present conditions. Wetter and warmer conditions in the late autumn led to a difference of monthly average TOC of up to 5 mg L−1, suggesting that stream TOC may be particularly susceptible to climate variability during this season

Can the heterogeneity in stream dissolved organic carbon be explained by the contributing landscape elements?

The controls on stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were investigated in a 68 km2 catchment by applying a landscape-mixing model to test if downstream concentrations could be predicted from contributing landscape elements. The landscape-mixing model reproduced the DOC concentration well throughout the stream network during times of high and intermediate discharge. The landscape-mixing model approach is conceptually simple and easy to apply, requiring relatively few field measurements and minimal parameterisation. Our interpretation is that the higher degree of hydrological connectivity during high flows, combined with shorter stream residence times, increased the predictive power of this whole watershed-based mixing model. The model was also useful for providing a baseline for residual analysis, which highlighted areas for further conceptual model development. The residual analysis indicated areas of the stream network that were not well represented by simple mixing of headwaters, as well as flow conditions during which simple mixing based on headwater watershed characteristics did not apply. Specifically, we found that during periods of baseflow the larger valley streams had much lower DOC concentrations than would be predicted by simple mixing. Longer stream residence times during baseflow and changing hydrological flow paths were suggested as potential reasons for this pattern. This study highlights how a simple landscape-mixing model can be used for predictions as well as providing a baseline for residual analysis, which suggest potential mechanisms to be further explored using more focused field and process-based modelling studies