Capturing Budget Impact Considerations Within Economic Evaluations: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Rotavirus Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries and a Proposed Assessment Framework.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries, budget impact is an important criterion for funding new interventions, particularly for large public health investments such as new vaccines. However, budget impact analyses remain less frequently conducted and less well researched than cost-effectiveness analyses. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to fill the gap in research on budget impact analyses by assessing (1) the quality of stand-alone budget impact analyses, and (2) the feasibility of extending cost-effectiveness analyses to capture budget impact. METHODS: We developed a budget impact analysis checklist and scoring system for budget impact analyses, which we then adapted for cost-effectiveness analyses, based on current International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Task Force recommendations. We applied both budget impact analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis checklists and scoring systems to examine the extent to which existing economic evaluations provide sufficient evidence about budget impact to enable decision making. We used rotavirus vaccination as an illustrative case in which low- and middle-income countries uptake has been limited despite demonstrated cost effectiveness. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccine in low- and middle-income countries published between January 2000 and February 2017. We critically appraised the quality of budget impact analyses, and assessed the extension of cost-effectiveness analyses to provide useful budget impact information. RESULTS: Six budget impact analyses and 60 cost-effectiveness analyses were identified. Budget impact analyses adhered to most International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research recommendations, with key exceptions being provision of undiscounted financial streams for each budget period and model validation. Most cost-effectiveness analyses could not be extended to provide useful budget impact information; cost-effectiveness analyses also rarely presented undiscounted annual costs, or estimated financial streams during the first years of programme scale-up. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness analyses vastly outnumber budget impact analyses of rotavirus vaccination, despite both being critical for policy decision making. Straightforward changes to the presentation of cost-effectiveness analyses results could facilitate their adaptation into budget impact analyses

Stakeholders' perception on including broader economic impact of vaccines in economic evaluations in low and middle income countries: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Current health economic evaluation guidelines mainly concentrate on immediate health gains and cost savings for the individual involved in the intervention. However, it has been argued that these guidelines are too narrow to capture the full impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. The inclusion of broader economic impact of vaccines (BEIV) has therefore been proposed. Some examples of these are productivity-related gains, macro-economic impact, and different externalities. Despite their potency, the extent to which such benefits can and should be incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccination is still unclear. This mixed methods study aims to assess the relevance of BEIV to different stakeholders involved in the vaccine introduction decision making process. METHODS: In this mixed method study an internet based survey was sent to attendees of the New and Underutilized Vaccines Initiative meeting in Montreux, Switzerland in 2011. Additionally, semi-structured interviews of 15 minutes each were conducted during the meeting. Study participants included decision makers, experts and funders of vaccines and immunization programs in low and middle income countries. Descriptive analysis of the survey, along with identification of common themes and factors extracted from the interviews and open survey questions was undertaken. RESULTS: Evidence on macro-economic impact, burden of disease and ecological effects were perceived as being most valuable towards aiding decision making for vaccine introduction by the 26 survey respondents. The 14 interviewees highlighted the importance of burden of disease and different types of indirect effects. Furthermore, some new interpretations of BEIVs were discussed, such as the potential negative impact of wastage during immunization programs and the idea of using vaccines as a platform for delivering other types of health interventions. Interviewees also highlighted the importance of using a broader perspective in connection to measuring economic impacts, particularly when attempting to derive the value of newer, more expensive vaccines. CONCLUSION: According to participants, BEIVs were seen as being equally important as traditional outcome measures used in cost-effectiveness analyses. Such insight can be used to shape research agendas within this field and to eventually create broader, more inclusive practical guidelines for economic evaluations of vaccines

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96$283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines

Diffusion and utilization of magnetic resonance imaging in Asia.

OBJECTIVES: An assessment of the current status of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was undertaken to provide input for future government decisions on the introduction of new technologies in Asia. The objective of the study is to describe and explain the diffusion pattern of this costly technology in several Asian settings. METHODS: Data on the diffusion pattern of MRI for different Asian countries (the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) and regions (the cities of Shanghai and Hong Kong in China and the state of Tamil Nadu in India) were obtained from national representatives of professional bodies by using standardized questionnaires for the year 1997-98. In addition, utilization data were collected at the hospital level in three countries before and after the economic crisis in the region. For four countries plus Hong Kong, background information on the legal framework for "big ticket" technologies was collected. RESULTS: Since the introduction of the first MRI in the region in 1987, the number of MRIs has gradually increased both in public and private facilities in Asia. In 1998 the average number of MRI machines installed varied from less than 0.5 machine per million population to more than 5 machines per million population. The maintenance and operating costs, and not the absence of regulation, account for the low number of MRIs in the Philippines and Malaysia. Overall, installed MRIs have low magnetic field strength, vary with respect to brand and type, and are mostly in the private sector and in the urban areas of the region. The diffusion pattern of MRIs in countries of the Asian region appears to follow two types of patterns of diffusion: one set of countries seems to be composed of mostly early adopters and another set of countries appears to be composed mostly of late adopters. CONCLUSIONS: Total number of MRIs per population in this region, though quite small compared to most OECD countries, reflects a higher share of the country's health-resource devoted to expensive high-technology devices. It is difficult to state the appropriate number of MRIs for each country; however, the study shows that there are observable problems in terms of efficiency, equity, and quality of MRI services. The research team proposes a few key recommendations to counteract these problems. Purchasing and regulatory bodies must be empowered with skill and knowledge of health technology assessment. Likewise, the fundamental problems resulting from inefficient and unfair health financing should not be overlooked, so that there is more equitable use of the technology

Costing oral cholera vaccine delivery using a generic oral cholera vaccine delivery planning and costing tool (CholTool)

Cholera is both an endemic and epidemic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Strategies for cholera control include improving water, sanitation, and hygiene; providing early and effective treatment; and deploying oral cholera vaccine (OCV). This last strategy is relatively new, and countries considering its introduction are interested in knowing the potential cost not only of the vaccine, but also the cost of introduction. This paper describes the costing of OCV introduction in LMICs using a publicly available Excel-based tool known as the CholTool. It includes estimates of delivery cost categories which cover not only the service delivery costs (e.g. vaccine procurement, handling, storage, and transport; vaccination administration, monitoring supervision, and field support), but also the programmatic costs associated with introducing a new vaccine (i.e. microplanning, communication and training materials development, sensitization/social mobilization, and personnel training) to ensure that a comprehensive estimate is provided with health payer perspective. CholTool takes the user through a structured sequence of interlinked modules containing input parameter cells (assumptions), decision cells (variable selections), and formulas (calculations) to produce customized cost estimates based on standardized methods. The tool provides both financial and economic cost estimates, to ensure that both costs are available for consideration. Four examples of applications of CholTool are presented in three countries- one in Ethiopia, two in Malawi and one in Nepal. The estimates of economic delivery cost per dose (including service delivery and programmatic costs) were (in USD 2016): $2.89 in Ethiopia,$3.04 in Malawi1, $3.35 in Malawi2 and$3.06 in Nepal. A cost projection conducted before the campaign using the tool and a retrospective costing using the tool in Nepal resulted in no significant difference between economic delivery costs per dose

Thresholds for decision-making: informing the cost-effectiveness and affordability of rotavirus vaccines in Malaysia.

Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) based on the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) are extensively used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacking locally defined CETs. These thresholds were originally intended for global and regional prioritization, and do not reflect local context or affordability at the national level, so their value for informing resource allocation decisions has been questioned. Using these thresholds, rotavirus vaccines are widely regarded as cost-effective interventions in LMICs. However, high vaccine prices remain a barrier towards vaccine introduction. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, affordability and threshold price of universal rotavirus vaccination at various CETs in Malaysia. Cost-effectiveness of Rotarix and RotaTeq were evaluated using a multi-cohort model. Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund's vaccine prices were used as tender price, while the recommended retail price for Malaysia was used as market price. We estimate threshold prices defined as prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective, at various CETs reflecting economic theories of human capital, societal willingness-to-pay and marginal productivity. A budget impact analysis compared programmatic costs with the healthcare budget. At tender prices, both vaccines were cost-saving. At market prices, cost-effectiveness differed with thresholds used. At market price, using 'CMH thresholds', Rotarix programmes were cost-effective and RotaTeq were not cost-effective from the healthcare provider's perspective, while both vaccines were cost-effective from the societal perspective. Using other CETs, both vaccines were not cost-effective at market price, from the healthcare provider's and societal perspectives. At tender and cost-effective prices, rotavirus vaccination cost ∼1 and 3% of the public health budget, respectively. Using locally defined thresholds, rotavirus vaccination is cost-effective at vaccine prices in line with international tenders, but not at market prices. Thresholds representing marginal productivity are likely to be lower than those reflecting human capital and individual preference measures, and may be useful in determining affordable vaccine prices

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. METHODS: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. FINDINGS: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. FUNDING: WHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section