Prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with post traumatic brain injury using National Trauma Registry and Machine Learning Approach

Background The use of machine learning techniques to predict diseases outcomes has grown significantly in the last decade. Several studies prove that the machine learning predictive techniques outperform the classical multivariate techniques. We aimed to build a machine learning predictive model to predict the in-hospital mortality for patients who sustained Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). Methods Adult patients with TBI who were hospitalized in the level 1 trauma center in the period from January 2014 to February 2019 were included in this study. Patients’ demographics, injury characteristics and CT findings were used as predictors. The predictive performance of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) was evaluated in terms of accuracy, Area Under the Curve (AUC), sensitivity, precision, Negative Predictive Value (NPV), specificity and F-score. Results A total of 1620 eligible patients were included in the study (1417 survival and 203 non-survivals). Both models achieved accuracy over 91% and AUC over 93%. SVM achieved the optimal performance with accuracy 95.6% and AUC 96%. Conclusions for prediction of mortality in patients with TBI, SVM outperformed the well-known classical models that utilized the conventional multivariate analytical techniques.Other Information Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13049-020-00738-5</p

The FASILA Score: A Novel Bio-Clinical Score to Predict Massive Blood Transfusion in Patients with Abdominal Trauma

Background Early identification of patients who may need massive blood transfusion remains a major challenge in trauma care. This study proposed a novel and easy-to-calculate prediction score using clinical and point of care laboratory findings in patients with abdominal trauma (AT). Methods Patients with AT admitted to a trauma center in Qatar between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The FASILA score was proposed and calculated using focused assessment with sonography in trauma (0 = negative, 1 = positive), Shock Index (SI) (0 = 0.50–0.69, 1 = 0.70–0.79, 2 = 0.80–0.89, and 3 ≥ 0.90), and initial serum lactate (0 ≤ 2.0, 1 = 2.0–4.0, and 2 ≥ 4.0 mmol/l). Outcome variables included mortality, laparotomy, and massive blood transfusion (MT). FASILA was compared to other prediction scores using receiver operating characteristics and areas under the curves. Bootstrap procedure was employed for internal validation. Results In 1199 patients with a mean age of 31 ± 13.5 years, MT, MT protocol (MTP) activation, exploratory laparotomy (ExLap), and hospital mortality were related linearly with the FASILA score, Injury Severity Score, and total length of hospital stay. Initial hemoglobin, Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) were inversely proportional. FASILA scores correlated significantly with the Assessment of Blood Consumption (ABC) (r = 0.65), Revised Assessment of Bleeding and Transfusion (RABT) (r = 0.63), SI (r = 0.72), RTS (r = − 0.34), and Glasgow Coma Scale (r = − 0.32) and outperformed other predictive systems (RABT, ABC, and SI) in predicting MT, MTP, ExLap, and mortality. Conclusions The novel FASILA score performs well in patients with abdominal trauma and offers advantages over other scores.Other Information Published in: World Journal of Surgery License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-019-05289-0</p

Shock index in patients with traumatic solid organ injury as a predictor of massive blood transfusion protocol activation

Purpose We aimed to assess the utility of shock index (SI) to predict the need for massive transfusion protocol (MTP) in patients with solid organ injury (SOI) in a Level 1 Trauma center. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis for patients with SOI between 2011 and 2014. Patients were categorized according to on-admission SI into low ( Results A total of 4500 patients were admitted with trauma, of them 572 sustained SOIs (289 patients had SI ≥0.8). In comparison to low SI, patients with high SI were younger, had higher injury severity scores (ISS) and lower Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS); (p  Conclusions In patients with SOI, SI is a simple bedside predictor for BT and MTP activation. Further prospective studies are needed to support our findings.Other Information Published in: Injury Epidemiology License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40621-019-0218-7</p

Underutilization of occupant restraint systems in motor vehicle injury crashes: A quantitative analysis from Qatar

<p><b>Introduction:</b> Restraint systems (seat belts and airbags) are important tools that improve vehicle occupant safety during motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). We aimed to identify the pattern and impact of the utilization of passenger restraint systems on the outcomes of MVC victims in Qatar.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> A retrospective study was conducted for all admitted patients who sustained MVC-related injuries between March 2011 and March 2014 inclusive.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Out of 2,730 road traffic injury cases, 1,830 (67%) sustained MVC-related injuries, of whom 88% were young males, 70% were expatriates, and 53% were drivers. The use of seat belts and airbags was documented in 26 and 2.5% of cases, respectively. Unrestrained passengers had greater injury severity scores, longer hospital stays, and higher rates of pneumonia and mortality compared to restrained passengers (<i>P</i> = .001 for all). There were 311 (17%) ejected cases. Seat belt use was significantly lower and the mortality rate was 3-fold higher in the ejected group compared to the nonejected group (<i>P</i> = .001). The overall mortality was 8.3%. On multivariate regression analysis, predictors of not using a seat belt were being a front seat passenger, driver, or Qatari national and young age. Unrestrained males had a 3-fold increase in mortality in comparison to unrestrained females. The risk of severe injury (relative risk [RR] = 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49–2.26, <i>P</i> = .001) and death (RR = 4.13, 95% CI, 2.31–7.38, <i>P</i> = .001) was significantly greater among unrestrained passengers.</p> <p><b>Conclusion</b>: The nonuse of seat belts is associated with worse outcomes during MVCs in Qatar. Our study highlights the lower rate of seat belt compliance in young car occupants that results in more severe injuries, longer hospital stays, and higher mortality rates. Therefore, we recommend more effective seat belt awareness and education campaigns, the enforcement of current seat belt laws, their extension to all vehicle occupants, and the adoption of proven interventions that will assure sustained behavioral changes toward improvements in seat belt use in Qatar.</p

All-terrain vehicle (ATV)-related injuries among different age groups: insights from a 9-year observational study

Purpose To describe the epidemiology, patterns, seasonality and outcome of all-terrain vehicle-related injuries (ATVRIs) among different age groups in Qatar. Methods A retrospective analysis of all patients hospitalized with ATVRI from 2010 to 2018 was conducted. Data were analyzed by age, gender, seasonality, and Injury severity Score  (ISS). Chi-square, Student t and ANOVA tests were used for analysis. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to find out predictors of head injury and severe injury among ATV users. Results Out of 15,000 trauma admissions, 521 had ATVRI (4%) with a mean age of 23.3 ± 12.3. The male-to-female ratio was 4:1 and the pediatric population represented 40%. The compliance with helmet use was 3.6%. The most injured regions were chest (29.8%), upper extremities (28.8%) and the head (25.9%). The mean ISS was 10.6 ± 7.7. Fracture fixation was the most operative intervention. Among hospitalized patients, 7.7% were transferred to rehabilitation . ATVRIs occurred more frequently between October and April and a large proportion (57.8%) occurred during weekends. The overall ATV-related hospital mortality rate was 2.1%. Young and older ATV users were more likely to suffer spine injuries than the pediatric population (p = 0.001). The mean ISS was greater in the older groups (p = 0.03). There were no statistically significant differences regarding the use of protective devices, mortality, or length of hospital stay between the different age groups. On multivariate analysis, young age and ISS were predictors of head injury among ATV users after adjusting for gender and helmet use. Conclusion This is a nationwide study looking at all age groups who sustained ATVRI in Qatar. ATVRIs were observed in all age groups following leisure and recreational use. It follows a seasonal pattern with poor protective measures compliance. There is a need to reinforce helmet use and raise public awareness.Other Information Published in: European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00068-022-01984-1</p

Patterns and Effects of Admission Hyperglycemia and Inflammatory Response in Trauma Patients: A Prospective Clinical Study

Background The constellation of the initial hyperglycemia, proinflammatory cytokines and severity of injury among trauma patients is understudied. We aimed to evaluate the patterns and effects of on-admission hyperglycemia and inflammatory response in a level 1 trauma center. We hypothesized that higher initial readings of blood glucose and cytokines are associated with severe injuries and worse in-hospital outcomes in trauma patients. Methods A prospective, observational study was conducted for adult trauma patients who were admitted and tested for on-admission blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-18 and hs-CRP. Patients were categorized into four groups [non-diabetic normoglycemic, diabetic normoglycemic, diabetic hyperglycemic (DH) and stress-induced hyperglycemic (SIH)]. The inflammatory markers were measured on three time points (admission, 24 h and 48 h). Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to account for the correlation for the inflammatory markers. Pearson’s correlation test and logistic regression analysis were also performed. Results During the study period, 250 adult trauma patients were enrolled. Almost 13% of patients presented with hyperglycemia (50% had SIH and 50% had DH). Patients with SIH were younger, had significantly higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), higher IL-6 readings, prolonged hospital length of stay and higher mortality. The SIH group had lower Revised Trauma Score (p = 0.005), lower Trauma Injury Severity Score (p = 0.01) and lower GCS (p = 0.001). Patients with hyperglycemia had higher in-hospital mortality than the normoglycemia group (12.5% vs 3.7%; p = 0.02). A significant correlation was identified between the initial blood glucose level and serum lactate, IL-6, ISS and hospital length of stay. Overall rate of change in slope 88.54 (95% CI:-143.39–33.68) points was found more in hyperglycemia than normoglycemia group (p = 0.002) for IL-6 values, whereas there was no statistical significant change in slopes of age, gender and their interaction. The initial IL-6 levels correlated with ISS (r = 0.40, p = 0.001). On-admission hyperglycemia had an adjusted odds ratio 2.42 (95% CI: 1.076–5.447, p = 0.03) for severe injury (ISS > 12) after adjusting for age, shock index and blood transfusion. Conclusions In trauma patients, on-admission hyperglycemia correlates well with the initial serum IL-6 level and is associated with more severe injuries. Therefore, it could be a simple marker of injury severity and useful tool for patient triage and risk assessment. Trial registration This study was registered at the ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT02999386), retrospectively Registered on December 21, 2016. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02999386.Other Information Published in: World Journal of Surgery License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00268-021-06190-5</p