Ic ve Dis Talebe Iliskin Alternatif Gostergeler : Yurt Ici ve Yurt Disi Satis Endeksleri

[TR] Kuresel kriz sonrasi donemde, dis pazarlardaki yavas toparlanmaya paralel olarak ihracat zayif seyretmis, ithalat ise yurt ici talebin guclu toparlanmasi ile birlikte yuksek oranli artislar kaydetmistir. Boylelikle, ayrisan ic ve dis talebin toparlanma hizlari cari acigin kaygi verici duzeylere ulasmasina katki saglamistir. Bu durum, ic ve dis talep gelismelerinin daha yakindan takip edilmesini gerekli kilmistir. Dis talebe iliskin aylik ve gunluk frekansta nicel gostergeler mevcutken, yurt ici talebe iliskin yuksek frekansli nicel veri bulunmamaktadir. Gerek yurt ici talebe iliskin yuksek frekansli bir veri olusturmak gerekse yurt disi talebe iliskin alternatif bir gosterge turetmek amaciyla ciro endeksleri kullanilarak yurt ici ve yurt disi satis endeksleri olusturulmustur. [EN] In the period following the global crisis, exports have shown a poor performance due to slow recovery in foreign markets, whereas imports have recorded high increases with the strong recovery of domestic demand. Accordingly, differentiated growth rate of domestic and foreign demand has contributed current account to reach an alarming level. This situation necessitates a closer monitoring of indicators related with domestic and foreign demand. While regarding to foreign demand monthly and daily quantitative data exist, regarding to domestic demand high frequency hard data does not exist. In order to derive both a high-frequency indicator for domestic demand and an alternative indicator for foreign demand, domestic and foreign sales indices are formed by using the turnover indices.

Turkiye Ekonomisi Is Cevrimlerinin Kuresel Ekonomi ile Iliskisi

[TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinin kuresel ekonomi ile iliskisi incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, milli gelirimiz ile bilesenlerinin cevrimleriyle ABD ve euro bolgesi is cevrimleri arasindaki korelasyonlar farkli frekans bantlari icin hesaplanmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin euro bolgesi ile daha cok kisa ve orta vadede, ABD ile ise daha ziyade orta ve uzun vadede iliskili olduguna isaret etmektedir. ABD ile olan iliskinin gucu, dis ticaretten baska kanallarin da ekonomimiz icin onemini gostermektedir. Ayrica sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin bu iki ekonomi ile iliskisinin derecesinin 2001 sonrasi donemde kayda deger olcude arttigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, we aim at investigating the sensitivity of Turkish economy to the global economy. In this framework, we calculate the correlation between “cycles of gross domestic product (GDP) and its components” and “cycles of the US GDP and Euro Area GDP” for different frequency bands. The results indicate that Euro Area developments are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the short and medium term while the developments in the US economy are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the medium and long run. The high correlation with the US also suggests that non-trade channels for Turkish economy are also important. In addition, results show that the correlation of the Turkish economy with foreign economies significantly increased after 2001.