Turkiye Ekonomisi Is Cevrimlerinin Kuresel Ekonomi ile Iliskisi

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinin kuresel ekonomi ile iliskisi incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, milli gelirimiz ile bilesenlerinin cevrimleriyle ABD ve euro bolgesi is cevrimleri arasindaki korelasyonlar farkli frekans bantlari icin hesaplanmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin euro bolgesi ile daha cok kisa ve orta vadede, ABD ile ise daha ziyade orta ve uzun vadede iliskili olduguna isaret etmektedir. ABD ile olan iliskinin gucu, dis ticaretten baska kanallarin da ekonomimiz icin onemini gostermektedir. Ayrica sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin bu iki ekonomi ile iliskisinin derecesinin 2001 sonrasi donemde kayda deger olcude arttigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, we aim at investigating the sensitivity of Turkish economy to the global economy. In this framework, we calculate the correlation between “cycles of gross domestic product (GDP) and its components” and “cycles of the US GDP and Euro Area GDP” for different frequency bands. The results indicate that Euro Area developments are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the short and medium term while the developments in the US economy are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the medium and long run. The high correlation with the US also suggests that non-trade channels for Turkish economy are also important. In addition, results show that the correlation of the Turkish economy with foreign economies significantly increased after 2001.