Individual level covariate adjusted conditional autoregressive (indiCAR) model for disease mapping

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Mapping disease rates over a region provides a visual illustration of underlying geographical variation of the disease and can be useful to generate new hypotheses on the disease aetiology. However, methods to fit the popular and widely used conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for disease mapping are not feasible in many applications due to memory constraints, particularly when the sample size is large. We propose a new algorithm to fit a CAR model that can accommodate both individual and group level covariates while adjusting for spatial correlation in the disease rates, termed indiCAR. Our method scales well and works in very large datasets where other methods fail. Results: We evaluate the performance of the indiCAR method through simulation studies. Our simulation results indicate that the indiCAR provides reliable estimates of all the regression and random effect parameters. We also apply indiCAR to the analysis of data on neutropenia admissions in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Our analyses reveal that lower rates of neutropenia admissions are significantly associated with individual level predictors including higher age, male gender, residence in an outer regional area and a group level predictor of social disadvantage, the socio-economic index for areas. A large value for the spatial dependence parameter is estimated after adjusting for individual and area level covariates. This suggests the presence of important variation in the management of cancer patients across NSW. Conclusions: Incorporating individual covariate data in disease mapping studies improves the estimation of fixed and random effect parameters by utilizing information from multiple sources. Health registries routinely collect individual and area level information and thus could benefit by using indiCAR for mapping disease rates. Moreover, the natural applicability of indiCAR in a distributed computing framework enhances its application in the Big Data domain with a large number of individual/group level covariates. CI NSW Study Reference Number: 2012/07/410. Dated: July 2012

Spatial regression with covariate measurement error: A semiparametric approach

© 2016, The International Biometric Society. Spatial data have become increasingly common in epidemiology and public health research thanks to advances in GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology. In health research, for example, it is common for epidemiologists to incorporate geographically indexed data into their studies. In practice, however, the spatially defined covariates are often measured with error. Naive estimators of regression coefficients are attenuated if measurement error is ignored. Moreover, the classical measurement error theory is inapplicable in the context of spatial modeling because of the presence of spatial correlation among the observations. We propose a semiparametric regression approach to obtain bias-corrected estimates of regression parameters and derive their large sample properties. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through simulation studies and illustrate using data on Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD). Both simulation and practical application demonstrate that the proposed method can be effective in practice

Development of the CogDrisk tool to assess risk factors for dementia

Introduction: We aimed to develop a comprehensive risk assessment tool for Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and any dementia, that will be applicable in high and low resource settings. Method: Risk factors which can easily be assessed in most settings, and their effect sizes, were identified from an umbrella review, or estimated using meta-analysis where new data were available. Results: Seventeen risk/protective factors met criteria for the algorithm to estimate risk for any dementia including age, sex, education, hypertension, midlife obesity, midlife high cholesterol, diabetes, insufficient physical activity, depression, traumatic brain injury, atrial fibrillation, smoking, social engagement, cognitive engagement, fish consumption (diet), stroke, and insomnia. A version for AD excluded atrial fibrillation and insomnia due to insufficient evidence and included pesticide exposure. There was insufficient evidence for a VaD risk score. Discussion: Validation of the tool on external datasets is planned. The assessment tool will assist with implementing risk reduction guidelines

The use of driver screening tools to predict self-reported crashes and incidents in older drivers

There is a clear need to identify older drivers at increased crash risk, without additional burden on the individual or licensing system. Brief off-road screening tools have been used to identify unsafe drivers and drivers at risk of losing their license. The aim of the current study was to evaluate and compare driver screening tools in predicting prospective self-reported crashes and incidents over 24 months in drivers aged 60 years and older. 525 drivers aged 63–96 years participated in the prospective Driving Aging Safety and Health (DASH) study, completing an on-road driving assessment and seven off-road screening tools (Multi-D battery, Useful Field of View, 14-Item Road Law, Drive Safe, Drive Safe Intersection, Maze Test, Hazard Perception Test (HPT)), along with monthly self-report diaries on crashes and incidents over a 24-month period. Over the 24 months, 22% of older drivers reported at least one crash, while 42% reported at least one significant incident (e.g., near miss). As expected, passing the on-road driving assessment was associated with a 55% [IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.29–0.71] reduction in self-reported crashes adjusting for exposure (crash rate), but was not associated with reduced rate of a significant incident. For the off-road screening tools, poorer performance on the Multi-D test battery was associated with a 22% [IRR 1.22, 95% CI 1.08–1.37] increase in crash rate over 24 months. Meanwhile, all other off-road screening tools were not predictive of rates of crashes or incidents reported prospectively. The finding that only the Multi-D battery was predictive of increased crash rate, highlights the importance of accounting for age-related changes in vision, sensorimotor skills and cognition, as well as driving exposure, in older drivers when using off-road screening tools to assess future crash risk

Associations Between Planned Exercise, Walking, Incidental Physical Activity, and Habit Strength in Older People: A Cross-Sectional Study

Habits play an important role in physical activity (PA) engagement; however, these associations in older people are not well understood. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between engagement in types of PA and their automaticity in older people, using an observational, cross-sectional design. Current hours engaged in planned exercise (excluding walking), planned walking, and incidental activities and the automaticity of those PA behaviors were measured in 127 community-dwelling Australians aged 65 years and older via an online questionnaire. After controlling for demographic and health factors (age, gender, education level, body mass index, history of falls, and anxiety and depression symptoms), higher automaticity scores were associated with more hours undertaking planned walking and incidental activity but not planned exercise. Although preliminary, these findings indicate that the role of habit in maintaining PA in older people may, therefore, differ depending on the type of activity

A Technology-Enriched Approach to Studying Microlongitudinal Aging Among Adults Aged 18 to 85 Years: Protocol for the Labs Without Walls Study

Background: Traditional longitudinal aging research involves studying the same individuals over a long period, with measurement intervals typically several years apart. App-based studies have the potential to provide new insights into life-course aging by improving the accessibility, temporal specificity, and real-world integration of data collection. We developed a new research app for iOS named Labs Without Walls to facilitate the study of life-course aging. Combined with data collected using paired smartwatches, the app collects complex data including data from one-time surveys, daily diary surveys, repeated game-like cognitive and sensory tasks, and passive health and environmental data. Objective: The aim of this protocol is to describe the research design and methods of the Labs Without Walls study conducted between 2021 and 2023 in Australia. Methods: Overall, 240 Australian adults will be recruited, stratified by age group (18-25, 26-35, 36-45, 46-55, 56-65, 66-75, and 76-85 years) and sex at birth (male and female). Recruitment procedures include emails to university and community networks, as well as paid and unpaid social media advertisements. Participants will be invited to complete the study onboarding either in person or remotely. Participants who select face-to-face onboarding (n=approximately 40) will be invited to complete traditional in-person cognitive and sensory assessments to be cross-validated against their app-based counterparts. Participants will be sent an Apple Watch and headphones for use during the study period. Participants will provide informed consent within the app and then begin an 8-week study protocol, which includes scheduled surveys, cognitive and sensory tasks, and passive data collection using the app and a paired watch. At the conclusion of the study period, participants will be invited to rate the acceptability and usability of the study app and watch. We hypothesize that participants will be able to successfully provide e-consent, input survey data through the Labs Without Walls app, and have passive data collected over 8 weeks; participants will rate the app and watch as user-friendly and acceptable; the app will allow for the study of daily variability in self-perceptions of age and gender; and data will allow for the cross-validation of app- and laboratory-based cognitive and sensory tasks. Results: Recruitment began in May 2021, and data collection was completed in February 2023. The publication of preliminary results is anticipated in 2023. Conclusions: This study will provide evidence regarding the acceptability and usability of the research app and paired watch for studying life-course aging processes on multiple timescales. The feedback obtained will be used to improve future iterations of the app, explore preliminary evidence for intraindividual variability in self-perceptions of aging and gender expression across the life span, and explore the associations between performance on app-based cognitive and sensory tests and that on similar traditional cognitive and sensory tests

MyCOACH (COnnected Advice for Cognitive Health): a digitally delivered multidomain intervention for cognitive decline and risk of dementia in adults with mild cognitive impairment or subjective cognitive decline–study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Introduction Digital health interventions are cost-effective and easily accessible, but there is currently a lack of effective online options for dementia prevention especially for people at risk due to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Methods and analysis MyCOACH (COnnected Advice for Cognitive Health) is a tailored online dementia risk reduction programme for adults aged ≥65 living with MCI or SCD. The MyCOACH trial aims to evaluate the programme’s effectiveness in reducing dementia risk compared with an active control over a 64-week period (N=326). Eligible participants are randomly allocated to one of two intervention arms for 12 weeks: (1) the MyCOACH intervention programme or (2) email bulletins with general healthy ageing information (active control). The MyCOACH intervention programme provides participants with information about memory impairments and dementia, memory strategies and different lifestyle factors associated with brain ageing as well as practical support including goal setting, motivational interviewing, brain training, dietary and exercise consultations, and a 26-week post-intervention booster session. Follow-up assessments are conducted for all participants at 13, 39 and 65 weeks from baseline, with the primary outcome being exposure to dementia risk factors measured using the Australian National University-Alzheimer’s Disease Risk Index. Secondary measures include cognitive function, quality of life, functional impairment, motivation to change behaviour, self-efficacy, morale and dementia literacy. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee (HC210012, 19 February 2021). The results of the study will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and research conferences

CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, and LIBRA Risk Scores for Estimating Dementia Risk

Importance: While the Australian National University-Alzheimer Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE), and Lifestyle for Brain Health (LIBRA) dementia risk tools have been widely used, a large body of new evidence has emerged since their publication. Recently, Cognitive Health and Dementia Risk Index (CogDrisk) and CogDrisk for Alzheimer disease (CogDrisk-AD) risk tools have been developed for the assessment of dementia and AD risk, respectively, using contemporary evidence; comparison of the relative performance of these risk tools is limited. Objective: To evaluate the performance of CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, LIBRA, and modified LIBRA (LIBRA with age and sex estimates from ANU-ADRI) in estimating dementia and AD risks (with CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI). Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP), the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study (CHS-CS), and the Health and Retirement Study-Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (HRS-ADAMS). Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The factors were component variables in the risk tools that included self-reported baseline demographics, medical risk factors, and lifestyle habits. The study was conducted between November 2021 and March 2023, and statistical analysis was performed from January to June 2023. Main outcomes and measures: Risk scores were calculated based on available factors in each of these cohorts. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to measure the performance of each risk score. Multiple imputation was used to assess whether missing data may have affected estimates for dementia risk. Results: Among the 6107 participants in 3 validation cohorts included for this study, 2184 participants without dementia at baseline were available from MAP (mean [SD] age, 80.0 [7.6] years; 1606 [73.5%] female), 548 participants without dementia at baseline were available from HRS-ADAMS (mean [SD] age, 79.5 [6.3] years; 288 [52.5%] female), and 3375 participants without dementia at baseline were available from CHS-CS (mean [SD] age, 74.8 [4.9] years; 1994 [59.1%] female). In all 3 cohorts, a similar AUC for dementia was obtained using CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, and modified LIBRA (MAP cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.69]; HRS-ADAMS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.70-0.78]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71-0.79]; CHS-CS cohort: CogDrisk AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67-0.72]; ANU-ADRI AUC, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.72]; modified LIBRA AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.68-0.73]). The CAIDE and LIBRA also provided similar but lower AUCs than the 3 aforementioned tools (eg, MAP cohort: CAIDE AUC, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.46-0.54]; LIBRA AUC, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.48-0.57]). The performance of CogDrisk-AD and ANU-ADRI in estimating AD risks was also similar. Conclusions and relevance: CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed similarly to ANU-ADRI in estimating dementia and AD risks. These results suggest that CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD, with a greater range of modifiable risk factors compared with other risk tools in this study, may be more informative for risk reduction

Study protocol for development and validation of a single tool to assess risks of stroke, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction and dementia: DemNCD-Risk

Introduction Current efforts to reduce dementia focus on prevention and risk reduction by targeting modifiable risk factors. As dementia and cardiometabolic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) share risk factors, a single risk-estimating tool for dementia and multiple NCDs could be cost-effective and facilitate concurrent assessments as compared with a conventional single approach. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a new risk tool that estimates an individual's risk of developing dementia and other NCDs including diabetes mellitus, stroke and myocardial infarction. Once validated, it could be used by the public and general practitioners. Methods and analysis Ten high-quality cohort studies from multiple countries were identified, which met eligibility criteria, including large representative samples, long-term follow-up, data on clinical diagnoses of dementia and NCDs, recognised modifiable risk factors for the four NCDs and mortality data. Pooled harmonised data from the cohorts will be used, with 65% randomly allocated for development of the predictive model and 35% for testing. Predictors include sociodemographic characteristics, general health risk factors and lifestyle/behavioural risk factors. A subdistribution hazard model will assess the risk factors' contribution to the outcome, adjusting for competing mortality risks. Point-based scoring algorithms will be built using predictor weights, internally validated and the discriminative ability and calibration of the model will be assessed for the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses will include recalculating risk scores using logistic regression. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is provided by the University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee (UNSW HREC; protocol numbers HC200515, HC3413). All data are deidentified and securely stored on servers at Neuroscience Research Australia. Study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. The tool will be accessible as a public health resource. Knowledge translation and implementation work will explore strategies to apply the tool in clinical practice

Validation of the CogDrisk Instrument as Predictive of Dementia in Four General Community-Dwelling Populations

Background: Lack of external validation of dementia risk tools is a major limitation for generalizability and translatability of prediction scores in clinical practice and research. Objectives: We aimed to validate a new dementia prediction risk tool called CogDrisk and a version, CogDrisk-AD for predicting Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using cohort studies. Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements: Four cohort studies were identified that included majority of the dementia risk factors from the CogDrisk tool. Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The predictors were component variables in the CogDrisk tool that include self-reported demographics, medical risk factors and lifestyle habits. Risk scores for Any Dementia and AD were computed and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was assessed. To examine modifiable risk factors for dementia, the CogDrisk tool was tested by excluding age and sex estimates from the model. Results: The performance of the tool varied between studies. The overall AUC and 95% CI for predicting dementia was 0.77 (0.57, 0.97) for the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, 0.76 (0.70, 0.83) for the Health and Retirement Study - Aging, Demographics and Memory Study, 0.70 (0.67,0.72) for the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study, and 0.66 (0.62,0.70) for the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Conclusions: The CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed well in the four studies. Overall, this tool can be used to assess individualized risk factors of dementia and AD in various population settings