Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to predict influenza in primary care patients

Abstract Background The use of neuraminidase-inhibiting anti-viral medication to treat influenza is relatively infrequent. Rapid, cost-effective methods for diagnosing influenza are needed to enable appropriate prescribing. Multi-viral respiratory panels using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays to diagnose influenza are accurate but expensive and more time-consuming than low sensitivity rapid influenza tests. Influenza clinical decision algorithms are both rapid and inexpensive, but most are based on regression analyses that do not account for higher order interactions. This study used classification and regression trees (CART) modeling to estimate probabilities of influenza. Methods Eligible enrollees ≥ 5 years old (n = 4,173) who presented at ambulatory centers for treatment of acute respiratory illness (≤7 days) with cough or fever in 2011–2012, provided nasal and pharyngeal swabs for PCR testing for influenza, information on demographics, symptoms, personal characteristics and self-reported influenza vaccination status. Results Antiviral medication was prescribed for just 15 % of those with PCR-confirmed influenza. An algorithm that included fever, cough, and fatigue had sensitivity of 84 %, specificity of 48 %, positive predictive value (PPV) of 23 % and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94 % for the development sample. Conclusions The CART algorithm has good sensitivity and high NPV, but low PPV for identifying influenza among outpatients ≥5 years. Thus, it is good at identifying a group who do not need testing or antivirals and had fair to good predictive performance for influenza. Further testing of the algorithm in other influenza seasons would help to optimize decisions for lab testing or treatment.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134640/1/12879_2016_Article_1839.pd

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 among symptomatic persons aged ≥12 years with reported contact with COVID-19 cases, February-September 2021

BACKGROUND: Individuals in contact with persons with COVID-19 are at high risk of developing COVID-19; protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines in the context of known exposure is poorly understood. METHODS: Symptomatic outpatients aged ≥12 years reporting acute onset of COVID-19-like illness and tested for SARS-CoV-2 between February 1 and September 30, 2021 were enrolled. Participants were stratified by self-report of having known contact with a COVID-19 case in the 14 days prior to illness onset. Vaccine effectiveness was evaluated using the test-negative study design and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 2229 participants, 283/451 (63%) of those reporting contact and 331/1778 (19%) without known contact tested SARS-CoV-2-positive. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49%-83%) among fully vaccinated participants reporting a known contact versus 80% (95% CI, 72%-86%) among those with no known contact (p-value for interaction = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to growing evidence of the benefits of vaccinations in preventing COVID-19 and support vaccination recommendations and the importance of efforts to increase vaccination coverage

Micronutrient Deficits Are Still Public Health Issues among Women and Young Children in Vietnam

Background: The 2000 Vietnamese National Nutrition Survey showed that the population’s dietary intake had improved since 1987. However, inequalities were found in food consumption between socioeconomic groups. As no national data exist on the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, a survey was conducted in 2010 to assess the micronutrient status of randomly selected 1526 women of reproductive age and 586 children aged 6–75 mo. Principal Findings: In women, according to international thresholds, prevalence of zinc deficiency (ZnD, 67.262.6%) and vitamin B12 deficiency (11.761.7%) represented public health problems, whereas prevalence of anemia (11.661.0%) and iron deficiency (ID, 13.761.1%) were considered low, and folate (,3%) and vitamin A (VAD,,2%) deficiencies were considered negligible. However, many women had marginal folate (25.1%) and vitamin A status (13.6%). Moreover, overweight (BMI$23 kg/m 2 for Asian population) or underweight occurred in 20 % of women respectively highlighting the double burden of malnutrition. In children, a similar pattern was observed for ZnD (51.963.5%), anemia (9.161.4%) and ID (12.961.5%) whereas prevalence of marginal vitamin A status was also high (47.362.2%). There was a significant effect of age on anemia and ID prevalence, with the youngest age group (6–17 mo) having the highest risk for anemia, ID, ZnD and marginal vitamin A status as compared to other groups. Moreover, the poorest groups of population had a higher risk for zinc, anemia and ID

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza a cases

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza

Repeated annual influenza vaccination and vaccine effectiveness: review of evidence

Introduction: Studies in the 1970s and 1980s signaled concern that repeated influenza vaccination could affect vaccine protection. The antigenic distance hypothesis provided a theoretical framework to explain variability in repeat vaccination effects based on antigenic similarity between successive vaccine components and the epidemic strain. Areas covered: A meta-analysis of vaccine effectiveness studies from 2010–11 through 2014–15 shows substantial heterogeneity in repeat vaccination effects within and between seasons and subtypes. When negative effects were observed, they were most pronounced for H3N2, especially in 2014–15 when vaccine components were unchanged and antigenically distinct from the epidemic strain. Studies of repeated vaccination across multiple seasons suggest that vaccine effectiveness may be influenced by more than one prior season. In immunogenicity studies, repeated vaccination blunts the hemagglutinin antibody response, particularly for H3N2. Expert commentary: Substantial heterogeneity in repeated vaccination effects is not surprising given the variation in study populations and seasons, and the variable effects of antigenic distance and immunological landscape in different age groups and populations. Caution is required in the interpretation of pooled results across multiple seasons, since this can mask important variation in repeat vaccination effects between seasons. Multi-season clinical studies are needed to understand repeat vaccination effects and guide recommendations

Determinants of human papillomavirus vaccine attitudes: an interview of Wisconsin parents

Abstract Background Parental attitudes play a key role in their decisions to vaccinate adolescents against the human papillomavirus (HPV). Little is known, however, about the formative experiences that shape parents’ attitudes about the HPV vaccine. Methods We conducted semi-structured interviews with 25 parents of 11–17 year old adolescents in Wisconsin who changed their HPV vaccine attitudes (per prior surveys) over one year. A modified grounded theory approach was then used to generate primary themes of attitudinal determinants. Results Participants were predominately mothers. We identified three major themes that shaped parents’ HPV attitudes: (1) the perceived likelihood of the HPV vaccine preventing cancer, (2) agency in adolescence and gauging their adolescent child’s intent for sexual activity, (3) the credibility of HPV vaccine information sources. General messaging around cancer prevention did not always supersede some parents’ concerns about the vaccine’s perceived link to sexual activity. Parents often viewed their adolescent child’s feelings about the HPV vaccine as a gauge of their (child’s) intent for sexual activity. Interviewees felt a sense of responsibility to educate themselves about the HPV vaccine using multiple sources and particularly looked to their medical provider to filter conflicting information. Conclusions More family-specific (vs. disease-prevention) messaging and recommendations may be needed in the clinical environment to sway some parents’ negative attitudes about the HPV vaccine. Future research should explore additional strategies to improve HPV vaccine attitudes, such as situating the vaccine in the context of a monogamous lifestyle that many parents wish to impart to their children

Association between parent attitudes and receipt of human papillomavirus vaccine in adolescents

Abstract Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage rates remain low. This is believed to reflect parental hesitancy, but few studies have examined how changes in parents’ attitudes impact HPV vaccine uptake. This study examined the association between changes in parents’ vaccine attitudes and HPV vaccine receipt in their adolescent children. Methods A baseline and 1-year follow-up survey of HPV vaccine attitudes was administered to parents of 11–17 year olds who had not completed the HPV vaccine series. Changes in attitudinal scores (barriers, harms, ineffectiveness, and uncertainties) from the Carolina HPV Immunization Attitudes and Beliefs Scale were assessed. Two outcomes were measured (in parents’ adolescent children) over an 18-month period and analyzed using multivariable regression; receipt of next scheduled HPV vaccine dose and 3-dose series completion. Results There were 221 parents who completed the baseline survey (11% response rate) and 164 with available follow-up data; 60% of their adolescent children received a next HPV vaccine dose and 38% completed the vaccine series at follow-up. Decrease in parents’ uncertainties was a significant predictor of vaccine receipt, with each 1-point reduction in uncertainties score associated with 4.9 higher odds of receipt of the next vaccine dose. Higher baseline harms score was the only significant predictor of lower series completion. Conclusions Reductions in parents’ uncertainties appeared to result in greater likelihood of their children receiving the HPV vaccine. Only baseline concerns about vaccine harms were associated with lower series completion rate. Education for parents should emphasize the HPV vaccine’s safety profile

Repeated annual influenza vaccination and vaccine effectiveness: review of evidence

<p><b>Introduction</b>: Studies in the 1970s and 1980s signaled concern that repeated influenza vaccination could affect vaccine protection. The antigenic distance hypothesis provided a theoretical framework to explain variability in repeat vaccination effects based on antigenic similarity between successive vaccine components and the epidemic strain.</p> <p><b>Areas covered</b>: A meta-analysis of vaccine effectiveness studies from 2010–11 through 2014–15 shows substantial heterogeneity in repeat vaccination effects within and between seasons and subtypes. When negative effects were observed, they were most pronounced for H3N2, especially in 2014–15 when vaccine components were unchanged and antigenically distinct from the epidemic strain. Studies of repeated vaccination across multiple seasons suggest that vaccine effectiveness may be influenced by more than one prior season. In immunogenicity studies, repeated vaccination blunts the hemagglutinin antibody response, particularly for H3N2.</p> <p><b>Expert commentary</b>: Substantial heterogeneity in repeated vaccination effects is not surprising given the variation in study populations and seasons, and the variable effects of antigenic distance and immunological landscape in different age groups and populations. Caution is required in the interpretation of pooled results across multiple seasons, since this can mask important variation in repeat vaccination effects between seasons. Multi-season clinical studies are needed to understand repeat vaccination effects and guide recommendations.</p