An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity and motion using Nimbus-5 ESMR measurements and non-satellite derived descriptors

An empirical analysis program, based on finding an optimal representation of the data was applied to 120 observations of 29 1973 and 1974 North Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of a field of Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived discriptors. Forecast algorithms to estimate storm intensity and motion at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after each observation were developed using an independent eigen screening analysis. These algorithms were based on best track data. Independent testing of these algorithms showed that the performance of most of these algorithms were better than persistence and the algorithms forecasting 24, 48, and 72 hour maximum wind speed were better than those made operationally by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for 1973 and 1974 that did not use best track data

New light on the ‘Drummer of Tedworth’: conflicting narratives of witchcraft in Restoration England

This paper presents a definitive text of hitherto little-known early documents concerning ‘The Drummer of Tedworth’, a poltergeist case that occurred in 1662-3 and became famous not least due to its promotion by Joseph Glanvill in his demonological work, Saducismus Triumphatus. On the basis of these and other sources, it is shown how responses to the events at Tedworth evolved from anxious piety on the part of their victim, John Mompesson, to confident apologetic by Glanvill, before they were further affected by the emergence of articulate scepticism about the case

Self reported aggravating activities do not demonstrate a consistent directional pattern in chronic non specific low back pain patients: An observational study

Question: Do the self-reported aggravating activities of chronic non-specific low back pain patients demonstrate a consistent directional pattern? Design: Cross-sectional observational study. Participants: 240 chronic non specific low back pain patients. Outcome measure: We invited experienced clinicians to classify each of the three self-nominated aggravating activities from the Patient Specific Functional Scale by the direction of lumbar spine movement. Patients were described as demonstrating a directional pattern if all nominated activities moved the spine into the same direction. Analyses were undertaken to determine if the proportion of patients demonstrating a directional pattern was greater than would be expected by chance. Results: In some patients, all tasks did move the spine into the same direction, but this proportion did not differ from chance (p = 0.328). There were no clinical or demographic differences between those who displayed a directional pattern and those who did not (all p > 0.05). Conclusion: Using patient self-reported aggravating activities we were unable to demonstrate the existence of a consistent pattern of adverse movement in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain

Analysis of rolling group therapy data using conditionally autoregressive priors

Group therapy is a central treatment modality for behavioral health disorders such as alcohol and other drug use (AOD) and depression. Group therapy is often delivered under a rolling (or open) admissions policy, where new clients are continuously enrolled into a group as space permits. Rolling admissions policies result in a complex correlation structure among client outcomes. Despite the ubiquity of rolling admissions in practice, little guidance on the analysis of such data is available. We discuss the limitations of previously proposed approaches in the context of a study that delivered group cognitive behavioral therapy for depression to clients in residential substance abuse treatment. We improve upon previous rolling group analytic approaches by fully modeling the interrelatedness of client depressive symptom scores using a hierarchical Bayesian model that assumes a conditionally autoregressive prior for session-level random effects. We demonstrate improved performance using our method for estimating the variance of model parameters and the enhanced ability to learn about the complex correlation structure among participants in rolling therapy groups. Our approach broadly applies to any group therapy setting where groups have changing client composition. It will lead to more efficient analyses of client-level data and improve the group therapy research community's ability to understand how the dynamics of rolling groups lead to client outcomes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS434 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Evolutionary rate depends on number of protein-protein interactions independently of gene expression level

BACKGROUND: Whether or not a protein's number of physical interactions with other proteins plays a role in determining its rate of evolution has been a contentious issue. A recent analysis suggested that the observed correlation between number of interactions and evolutionary rate may be due to experimental biases in high-throughput protein interaction data sets. DISCUSSION: The number of interactions per protein, as measured by some protein interaction data sets, shows no correlation with evolutionary rate. Other data sets, however, do reveal a relationship. Furthermore, even when experimental biases of these data sets are taken into account, a real correlation between number of interactions and evolutionary rate appears to exist. SUMMARY: A strong and significant correlation between a protein's number of interactions and evolutionary rate is apparent for interaction data from some studies. The extremely low agreement between different protein interaction data sets indicates that interaction data are still of low coverage and/or quality. These limitations may explain why some data sets reveal no correlation with evolutionary rates

A latest Cretaceous to earliest Paleogene dinoflagellate cyst zonation of Antarctica, and implications for phytoprovincialism in the high southern latitudes

The thickest uppermost Cretaceous to lowermost Paleogene (Maastrichtian to Danian) sedimentary succession in the world is exposed on southern Seymour Island (65° South) in the James Ross Basin, Antarctic Peninsula. This fossiliferous shallow marine sequence, which spans the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary, has allowed a high-resolution analysis of well-preserved marine palynomorphs. Previous correlation of Cretaceous–Paleogene marine palynomorph assemblages in the south polar region relied on dinoflagellate cyst biozonations from New Zealand and southern Australia. The age model of the southern Seymour Island succession is refined and placed within the stratigraphical context of the mid to high southern palaeolatitudes. Quantitative palynological analysis of a new 1102 m continuous stratigraphical section comprising the uppermost Snow Hill Island Formation and the López de Bertodano Formation (Marambio Group) across southern Seymour Island was undertaken. We propose the first formal late Maastrichtian to early Danian dinoflagellate cyst zonation scheme for the Antarctic based on this exceptional succession. Two new late Maastrichtian zones, including three subzones, and one new early Danian zone are defined. The oldest beds correlate well with the late Maastrichtian of New Zealand. In a wider context, a new South Polar Province based on Maastrichtian to Danian dinoflagellate cysts is proposed, which excludes most southern South American marine palynofloras. This interpretation is supported by models of ocean currents around Antarctica and implies an unrestricted oceanic connection across Antarctica between southern South America and the Tasman Sea

Curvature and Acoustic Instabilities in Rotating Fluid Disks

The stability of a rotating fluid disk to the formation of spiral arms is studied in the tightwinding approximation in the linear regime. The dispersion relation for spirals that was derived by Bertin et al. is shown to contain a new, acoustic instability beyond the Lindblad resonances that depends only on pressure and rotation. In this regime, pressure and gravity exchange roles as drivers and inhibitors of spiral wave structures. Other instabilities that are enhanced by pressure are also found in the general dispersion relation by including higher order terms in the small parameter 1/kr for wavenumber k and radius r. These instabilities are present even for large values of Toomre's parameter Q. Unstable growth rates are determined in four cases: a self-gravitating disk with a flat rotation curve, a self-gravitating disk with solid body rotation, a non-self-gravitating disk with solid body rotation, and a non-self-gravitating disk with Keplerian rotation. The most important application appears to be as a source of spiral structure, possibly leading to accretion in non-self-gravitating disks, such as some galactic nuclear disks, disks around black holes, and proto-planetary disks. All of these examples have short orbital times so the unstable growth time can be small.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures, scheduled for ApJ 520, August 1, 199

Electronic properties of Si/Si1–x–yGexCy heterojunctions

We have used admittance spectroscopy and deep-level transient spectroscopy to characterize electronic properties of Si/Si1–x–yGexCy heterostructures. Band offsets measured by admittance spectroscopy for compressively strained Si/Si1–x–yGexCy heterojunctions indicate that incorporation of C into Si1–x–yGexCy lowers both the valence- and conduction-band edges compared to those in Si1–xGex by an average of 107 ± 6 meV/% C and 75 ± 6 meV/% C, respectively. Combining these measurements indicates that the band alignment is type I for the compositions we have studied, and that these results are consistent with previously reported results on the energy band gap of Si1–x–yGexCy and with measurements of conduction band offsets in Si/Si1–yCy heterojunctions. Several electron traps were observed using deep-level transient spectroscopy on two n-type heterostructures. Despite the presence of a significant amount of nonsubstitutional C (0.29–1.6 at. %), none of the peaks appear attributable to previously reported interstitial C levels. Possible sources for these levels are discussed